David StrembaGlobal Education and Student Mobility Trends

July 2016

Case Study – An International Student

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Goal: The goal of this student was to transform himself into a “global citizen,” improve his ability to communicate, work, adapt and socialize across cultures, see and experience new places, people and ways of thinking, improve his fluency in a second language and ultimately improve his longer-term career prospects.

The 6 global forces fueling the growing participation rate

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Middle Class Youth Bulge2 billion youth in 2016 @ ~20% CAGR Falling productivity

Labour productivity undermining growth

Technology #shiftsAccelerating tech changes

Generational shiftsChanging behaviours and preferences

Competition for jobs Challenging job market

Constrained fundingPublic sector challenges

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The number of students across the globe in higher education has increased five-fold since 1970

197028m

198050m

1990100m

2000164m

2020260m

Source: OECD Education at a Glance, 2015

Global HE student mobility (M)

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 to

2024

2025

2.1 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.74.1 4.3 4.5

8.0

Source: Project Atlas 2014; OECD Education at a Glance, 2015; CBIE

Why do students seek HE experiences outside of their home countries?

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• In certain markets there is limited capacity of high quality HE provision

• Improve short and long-term career prospects in the competitive job market

• International experience/education creates key point of differentiation

• Participate in an immersive experience• Improve English language proficiency• Explore new cultures, places and lifestyles• Gain insights from different cultural perspectives• Develop global networks of friends and contacts• Help educate others about their own country/culture• US: Graduate from a globally reputable and admired HE system

What challenges do international students encounter?

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• Speed/frequency of native English language speakers; academic English vs. casual everyday English

• Interpreting slang, sarcasm, metaphors, inferences, references to local historical events, references to national sporting events/rules

• Writing (in English); understanding abstract theoretical concepts (in English)

• Behavior expectations in the classroom• Challenging their peers and/or professors w.r.t. assumptions, analysis or

conclusions• Critically analyzing situations or decisions of others• Asking probing questions

• Concepts of plagiarism, cheating and referencing/citations• Expectations at social events (particularly those involving alcohol)• Homesickness and fear, food, weather/climate and driving• Xenophobic people and reactions

What factors influence their choice of destination/institution?

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• Country: • Safety and “friendliness”• Family connection or relatives/friends present• Political situation and immigration policies• Prestige of institutions/degrees and perception by native employers• Exchange rates (but least influential)

• Institution: • Ranking/Profile/Reputation• Breadth of programs and specializations• Size and type of institution• Location, setting and climate• Tuition price point (value for money), financial capability, financial assistance• Selectivity / Entry requirements• The “student experience”• “WoM” via direct / indirect peers

The age of the dialogue and authenticity

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Trends impacting the US HE Sector

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• Shrinking domestic high school graduate population. • High school graduates peaked in 2010, reached a low point in 2014 and are not projected to recover to

the previous peak until in 2024 and then are projected to drop off again. • The northeast in particular has been experiencing unfavorable demographic trends. High school

graduates from the northeast are projected to decline by approximately 0.8% per year between 2010 and 2028.

Projected High School Graduates (Northeast)

(0.3%) CAGR

Projected High School Graduates (U.S.)

Source: NCES, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates

Continued: Trends impacting the US HE Sector

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• Postsecondary institutions will face greater competition for fewer traditional age domestic students over the next 15+ years

• Diminishing public funding over past ~25 years• The proportion of revenues that public HE institutions received from state appropriations dropped

from 38.3% in 1990 to 24.4% in 2009.• Tuition prices, during the same time period, more than doubled rising by 120%• State funding decreased between 2009 and 2010 by 7%. • In 2011-12, state appropriations fell by another 8%, resulting in the largest decline in half a century. • Declines in funding for 42 states and +20% cuts in 25 states.• Over the past year, 38 states increased funding per student, but 45 states are spending less per

student in 2015/16 than pre-recession.• Fierce competition in US for full-fee out-of-state students• Increasing demand for digital delivery and blended learning• US HEIs beginning to use international recruitment agents• More focus on recruitment of and special programs for international students

Int’l HE enrollment in the US has been increasing

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974,926 international students in 2014/15, a 10.0% increase over 2013/1472.5% more international students studying in US colleges and universities than reported a decade ago122.6% growth in new international enrollments since 2004/05

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000 Continuing International Students New International Students

Source: IIE Opendoors

At the same time, US int’l student secondary school enrollment increased by nearly 300%

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2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 -

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Source: IIE Center for Academic Mobility July 2014

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What are they studying?

Source: IIE Opendoors

STEM = 44%

20%

20%

12%8%

4%

9%

6%

2%2%1%

16%

BusinessEngineeringMath & Computer SciencesPhysical & Life SciencesHealth ProfessionsSocial SciencesFine & Applied ArtsHumanitiesEducationAgricultureOther

But U.S. global market share of internationally mobile students is in decline as a result of increased, expanded and intensified global competition

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22.9%(2000)

16%(2015)

Source: Project Atlas 2014; OECD Education at a Glance, 2015;

US is under-represented

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The U.S. has the largest number of top 400 universities in the worldHowever, among English speaking countries, the U.S. has the lowest proportion of international students relative to the total student population

3218

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TOP 400 Global Universities

131

Page 6

United States

Canada

New Zealand

United Kingdom

Australia

4%

9%

16%

17%

18%

Source: OECD 2015 Education at a Glance; ARWU

And distribution is uneven…

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5% of institutions host 69% of international students in the US

Source: IIE Opendoors

Strategic objectives of institutional internationalization

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Increase the quantity, quality and diversity of the international student body

Internationalize the curriculum to reflect the global dimensions of career opportunities

Increase participation in study in/out and exchanges; develop all students (including domestic students) into globally competent students/global citizens

Establish a globally recognized profile based on a reputation of academic (and research) excellence

Provide support for faculty to engage in international teaching, research and service

Generate capital for strategic investment purposes

But real goal is to develop Global Citizens

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A Global Citizen is someone who: is aware of the wider world and has a sense of their own role as

a world citizen respects and values diversity has an understanding of how the world works is outraged by social injustice participates in the community at a range of levels, from the

local to the global is willing to act to make the world a more equitable and

sustainable place takes responsibility for their actions.

Source: Oxfam

Looking forward…potential challenges/opportunities

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Continued youth population growth out of emerging markets

But, rising anti-immigration reactions/policies in developed economies

In ability to integrate effectively – causing “cash cow” perception

Growth of new disruptors in HE – i.e. Minerva/Keck

New higher education investment policies leading to a revival??

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