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READING FOR THURSDAYDavid Meko and Connie Woodhouse (2010), Application of streamflow reconstruction to water resources management. M.K. Hughes et al. (eds.), Dendroclimatology, Developments in Paleoenvironmental Research.
QUESTIONWhat was Denver Water’s key concern regarding its water supply?
QUESTIONWhat specific test did Denver Water use to assess whether or not tree rings were skillful estimators of river flow?
h!p://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/tree-ring-laboratory/
Ed Cook Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Observed discharge, Colorado River
Compact allocation (16.5 MAF)
Low reservoir
Photograph: Glen MacDonald
[The early 21st century drought] highlights both the extreme vulnerability of the semi-arid western United States to precipitation deficits and the need to be!er understand long-term drought variability and its causes in North America.
“”Cook et al., 2004
To this end, we have used centuries-long, annually resolved tree-ring records to reconstruct annual changes in both drought and wetness over large portions of North America.
“”
Cook et al., 2004
T H E N O R T H A M E R I C A N D R O U G H T A T L A S
Tree-ring chronologies (red dots) Cook et al., JQS, 2010
Palmer Drought Severity IndexThe PDSI incorporates historical records of precipitation and temperature into a water-balance model to estimate
the amount of water available in the soil relative to average conditions and is typically produced once a month.
+4 extreme wet
-4 extreme drought
(compared to ‘average’ for that place)
One hundred years of drought history around Minneapolis-St. Paul
Source: North American Drought Atlas
Drought grid (blue dots) Cook et al., JQS, 2010
Network reconstruction
Drought grid (blue dots) Cook et al., JQS, 2010
Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
Average PDSI, AD 1580 to 1600
HOW DO WE KNOW
THIS WORKS?
empirical comparisons
Dalhart, TX, 1938
Source: David Stahle
Tree ring
Source: David Stahle
June 1833All-time record flooding on the Arkansas, Canadian, and Verdigris Rivers in Oklahoma. 950 displaced Creek and Seminole drown on floodplain farmsteads.
Source: David Stahle
Source: David Stahle
Tree-ring records through time Cook et al., Science, 2004
Quality of PDSI estimates from tree rings Cook et al., JQS, 2010
WHY RECONSTRUCT THE
PDSI?
Source: David Stahle
St. George et al., The Holocene, 2010
Seasonal precipitation ‘bias’ of NADA
APPLICATIONS
Cook et al., 2007, Earth Science Reviews
How has the extent of severe drought changed through time?
Observed (blue) and tree-ring (red) PDSI in ‘The West’
A 1,000 years of drought in the West Cook et al., Science, 2004
How do other aspects of the climate system influence the
frequency or severity of drought?
EL NIÑ0SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
Source: St. George et al., 2010
Can the Drought Atlas help us place historical events within a context of long-term environmental change?
Square Tower HouseMesa Verde, Colorado
Source: David Stahle
Square Tower HouseMesa Verde, Colorado
Great Pueblo DroughtA.E. Douglass (1929)
Source: David Stahle
North American Drought Atlas h!p://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/paleo/pd08plot.pl
Much of the world’s population lives in monsoon Asia and depends on monsoon rainfall for water and agricultural fertility.
“” Wahl and Morrill, 2010
E R Wahl, C Morrill Science 2010;328:437-438
Average spatial pa!erns of precipitation and wind during summer
MONSOON ASIA DROUGHT ATLAS
h!p://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/cook2010/cook2010.html
Photograph: Kevin Anchukaitis
Tree-ring records across Monsoon Asia
E R Cook et al. Science 2010;328:486-489
E R Cook et al. Science 2010;328:486-489
Tree rings show extent of ‘Great Drought’, 1876-1878
E R Cook et al. Science 2010;328:486-489
Was the ‘Great Drought’ caused by ENSO or the North Pacific Ocean?
The MADA is a crucial step forward for paleoclimate studies in a region that is of great social and climatological interest, but where the development of tree-ring archives faces immense challenges and instrumental data coverage is limited.
“”
Wahl and Morrill, 2010
READINGEugene Wahl and Carrie Morrill (2010), Toward understanding and predicting monsoon pa!erns. Science 328, 437-438.
GRADUATE STUDENT READINGBüntgen et al. (2011), 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility. Science 331, 578-582.