The impact of Bangladesh’s demographic features, on it’s economic development

Report on the year 2007

GEO101Sec: 01

Mrs. Moushumi Zahur

Mobasshera Jahan 11204090Samiya Yesmin 11304043

Sl.

No.

Contents Page. No.

1. Introduction 3

2. Population 4

3. Fertility Rate 7

4. Current Fertility Levels 8

5. Fertility Trends 9

6. Infant and Child Mortality Rate 10

7. Literacy Trends 11

8. Impact on Economic Development 14

9. Reference 15

Index

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INTRODUCTION:

Bangladesh is located in the northeastern part of South Asia and covers an area of 147,570 squar

Kilometers. It is almost entirely surrounded by India, except for a short southeastern frontier with

Myanmar and a southern coastline on the Bay of Bengal. It lies between latitudes 20° 34_ and

26° 38-north and longitudes 88° 01_ and 92° 41_ east, and it has a tropical climate.

The country is divided into 6 divisions, 64 districts, and 496 upazilas (sub districts) (BBS, 2001).

Muslims make up almost 90 percent of the population of Bangladesh, Hindus account for about 9

percent, and others constitute the remaining 1 percent. The national language of Bangladesh is

Bengali, which is spoken and understood by all.

Bangladesh is overpopulated and will become even more so and that this is inhibiting the

economic and social prosperity of the country keeping Bangladesh one of the poorest countries

in the world is incontestable. This has been a dominant consideration in political decision-

making in Bangladesh and amongst international agencies. Bangladesh is indeed very poor

measured by any demographic or economic criterion. For example, the human development

index (HDI) is widely used to compare socio-demographic situation in many countries. This is a

composite of literacy rates, gross national product (GNP) per capita and life expectancy at birth

among other measures (UNDP, 2003). According to HDI, Bangladesh is ranked at position 145

out of 173.

The demographic feature of Bangladesh, including population density, male female ratio of

population, literacy rate, infant mortality rate, economic status & so on affects a great impact on

its economic development.

And here we have put together a report on the impact played on the economic development of

Bangladesh by its demographic features

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POPULATION:

The country's population is almost evenly distributed throughout its 64 districts except for the

three Hill Tracts districts which are rather sparsely inhabited. Regionally, the eastern districts

have a slightly higher density than the western ones. On average, a district has a population of

about 1.8 million, a thana 230,000, a union 25,000 and a village 2,000. There are 490 thanas,

4,451 unions and 59,990 villages. The number of households is about 20 million. On average, a

household consists of 5.6 persons. The tribal people, who lead a simple life, are generally self-

reliant, producing their own food and drinks and weaving their own clothes.

There are 4 metropolitan cities and 119 municipalities in the country. The level of urbanization is

low at 20%. This leaves 80% of the country's total population of about 120 million to live in the

rural areas which primarily depend on a poorly developed agriculture for livelihood. The capital

city of Dhaka has an estimated population of 8.58 million. According to 2007, the annual growth

rate of the population has come down to 1.75% with the acceptance of family planning practices

rising to 48.7%. The crude birth rate per 1000 is 25.6 and the death rate is 8.1. Life expectancy at

birth is 59.5 years. The rate of child mortality per 1000 has come down to 76.8 and that of

maternal mortality to 4.5. About 96.3% families in the country have now access to safe drinking

water. The sex ratio is 106 males for every 100 females. The density of population per square

kilometer is 800.

Some 44.3% of the people are literate with about 5 million having passed secondary school level

and another 1.27 million being graduates. The primary school enrollment rate has risen to 86%

and the rate for secondary school enrollment to 33%. To intensify promotion of compulsory

primary education, the food-for education program has been extended to over 16,000 schools.

More and more primary schools will be brought under this program.

Bangladesh population growth rate has not declined much during the last one decade or so owing

to stagnation in fertility and mortality with the result that there has been little change in

population growth rate. In my view, it has been hovering around 1.7% to 1.6% during the

preceding decade. The estimated crude birth rate was 26/1000 population (BDHS, 2007) and

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crude death rate (CDR) is estimated to be 10/1000 population. The resultant growth rate is 1.6%.

In 2007 the rate of population growth rate of Bangladesh, according to United Nations and other

agencies is still 1.65 percent. If this rate continues, Bangladesh population will double itself (i.e.

300 million) in 2050.

Table 1: Projected population of four major cities of Bangladesh in 2007 and years of doubling

the population:

Cities

Population in

2001

(in million)

Estimated

present

population

(in million)

Estimated present

Growth rate (%)

Doubling of the

population (in millions)

and years

Dhaka 8.6 11.0 5.0 22.0(14 yrs)*

Chittagong 3.4 5.0 4.5 10.0 (15.5)

Khulna 1.3 2.0 4.0 4.2 (17.5)

Rajshahi 0.7 1.0 3.0 2.0 (23.3)

Total 14.0 19.0 - -

*Figures in parenthesis represent number of years of doubling the population.

As a part of Government’s population management strategy in urban area, Government may

attempt to reverse the current trend through planned infrastructural development in remaining

district Headquarters and selected Upazilas so as to upgrade them as the second tier modern

cities and towns in a period of ten years. These emerging cities and towns should have proper

connectivity with big cities along with all modern facilities so that rural migrants become

attracted to go there for employment, business and education and eventually for settlement. The

emerging cities and towns should have education, business, industries, spacious roads, public

transportation facilities etc. This kind of urban center economic growth in favor of peripheral

cities and towns is desirable for balanced growth of urbanization and economic development.

This scheme will create a significant employment and income opportunities for the

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disadvantaged people of the underdeveloped urban areas. Hence, rural migrants will be attracted

to go there rather than coming to highly polluted mega city and port cities. As a result, current

imbalance in rural migrants’ distribution between big cities and small cities shall narrow down

and may ultimately take a reverse trend in a period of ten years from hence. It is assumed that

70.0 percent rural migrants may go to newly emerging towns and the rest 30% may come to the

big cities. This kind of shift may take time, but eventually it will happen, provided we pursue the

above policy strategy.

Demographic evolution of territory of Bangladesh(1900-2010)

Population of Bangladesh

Census datecensus population

(thousands)

adjusted population

(thousands)

1901 28 928

1911 31 555

1921 33 255

1931 35 602

1941 41 997

1951 41 932

1961 50 840

1974 71 479 76 398

1981 87 120 89 912

1991 106 313 111 455

2001 124 355 130 523

15 Mar 2011 (p) 142 319

FERTILITY RATE:

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Following an impressive decline in fertility in the late 1970s and 1980s from 6.3 to 3.4 births per

woman, fertility in Bangladesh began to plateau, causing concern among policy makers. Multiple

sources of data show that the total fertility rate stalled at 3.3 for about ten years during the 1990s

and then resumed its decline during the early 2000s (Mitra et al., 1994; Mitra et al., 1997;

NIPORT et al., 2001; NIPORT et al, 2005; ICDDR,B, 1994; ICDDR,B, 2002). A major

objective of the 2007 BDHS is to examine fertility levels, trends, and differentials in

Bangladesh. The focus on fertility is due to its important role in determining Bangladesh’s

population growth rate and its impact on economic development. This chapter describes current

and past fertility, cumulative fertility and family size, birth intervals, age at first birth, and the

reproductive behavior of adolescents. Most of the fertility measures are based on the birth

histories collected during interviews with ever married women age 15-49. Each woman was

asked a series of questions that could be used to construct a retrospective history of all of her

births. To encourage complete reporting, the interviewer asked the respondent about the number

of sons and daughters living with her, the number living elsewhere, and the number who had

died. She was then asked for a history of all of her births, including the month and year of birth,

name, sex, and survival status of each birth. Interviewers were given extensive training in

probing techniques designed to help respondents report this information accurately.

CURRENT FERTILITY LEVELS

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Age-specific and total fertility rates for Bangladesh as a whole and for urban and rural areas are

shown in Table 4.1, along with the general fertility rate and crude birth rate. According to the

2007 BDHS, the total fertility rate for women age 15-49 is 2.7. This means that a Bangladeshi

woman would have, on average, 2.7 children in her lifetime if the current age specific fertility

rates remained constant. This is 10 percent lower than the TFR of 3.0 children found by the 2004

BDHS. For the three-year period preceding the survey, the general fertility rate in Bangladesh

was 105 births per 1,000 women of reproductive age. Data show a crude birth rate of 26 births

per 1,000 populations for the same period.

Table 4.2 also presents the TFR and the mean number of children ever born to women age 40-49,

which allows a crude assessment of trends in fertility. The former is a measure of current

fertility,\ while the latter is a measure of past or completed fertility. Although comparing

completed fertility among women age

40-49 with the total fertility rate can

provide an indication of fertility

change, it is vulnerable to the

understatement of parity by older

women. Findings on age at marriage

and contraceptive use are also of

crucial importance in reaching a

balanced judgment about fertility

trends. Unless there is evidence of

increased age at marriage and/or

appreciable use of contraception, it is

unlikely that fertility has declined. However, the comparison of past and present fertility

indicators, together with corresponding increases in contraceptive use and women’s age at

marriage, suggests a decline of two children per woman, from 4.6 to 2.7 children. There has been

a substantial decline in fertility in both urban and rural areas, and in all administrative divisions.

Fertility declined by two or more children in three of Bangladesh’s six divisions: Barisal,

Chittagong, and Khulna.

FERTILITY TRENDS:

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Trends in fertility in Bangladesh since the early 1970s can be examined by observing a time

series of estimates produced from demographic surveys fielded over the last three decades,

beginning with the 1975 Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS). Data from the 2007 BDHS and

previous surveys show that following a nearly decade-long plateau in fertility from 1993 to 2000,

fertility in Bangladesh has resumed its decline. The estimates shown in Table 4.3.1 describe the

ongoing fertility transition in Bangladesh. Fertility has declined

sharply, from 6.3 births per woman in 1971-75 to 2.7 births per woman in 2004-2006 (Table

4.3.1 and Figure 4.3). There was an initial rapid decline in fertility of nearly two children per

women up to the early 1990s. Fertility then platitude at around 3.3 births per woman for most of

the 1990s. This was followed by another noteworthy decline in fertility during the current

decade. The 2007 BDHS data, along with earlier rounds of the survey beginning in 1993,

indicate that the decline in fertility hascontinued during the last three years, reaching 2.7 births

per woman. Since 2001, a marked decline in fertility has been observed in Khulna, Chittagong,

and Sylhet divisions. The decline in fertility in the last two decades occurred mostly among older

women.

INFANT & CHILD MORTALITY RATE:

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Infant and child mortality rates reflect a country’s level of socioeconomic development and

quality of life. They are used for monitoring and evaluating population and health programs and

policies. The rates are also important for monitoring progress towards the United Nations

Millennium Development Goal to reduce child mortality by two-thirds by the year 2015. This

chapter provides information on mortality of children under age five. Specifically, it presents

information on levels, trends, and differentials in neonatal, post neonatal, infant, and child

mortality. Information on prenatal mortality and patterns of fertility associated with high

mortality is also provided. Mortality estimates are disaggregated by socioeconomic

characteristics, such as urban-rural residence, division, mother’s education, and household

wealth, as well as by selected demographic characteristics in order to identify segments of the

population requiring special attention. The data for mortality estimates were collected in the birth

history section of the Women’s questionnaire. The 2007 BDHS asked all ever-married women

age 15-49 to provide a complete history of their live births, including the sex, month, and year of

each birth, survival status, and age at the time of the survey or age at death. Age at death was

recorded in days for children dying in the first month of life, in months for children dying before

their second birthday, and in years for children dying at later ages. In this chapter, the following

direct estimates of infant and child mortality1 were used:

Neonatal mortality: the probability of dying within the first month of life;

Post neonatal mortality: the difference between infant and neonatal mortality;

Infant mortality: the probability of dying before the first birthday;

Child mortality: the probability of dying between the first and fifth birthday;

Under-five mortality: the probability of dying between birth and the fifth birthday.

All rates are expressed per 1,000 live births except for child mortality, which is expressed per

1,000 children surviving to their first birthday (12 months of age).

Male children experience higher neonatal mortality than female children. In contrast, rates that

do not include the first month of life, such as post neonatal mortality, are similar for male and

female children. The pattern of gender differentials in neonatal mortality is expected because

neonatal mortality (which reflects largely congenital conditions) tends to be higher for boys than

girls. BDHS surveys conducted before 2004 reported both higher post neonatal and child

mortality for females than for males—a pattern that has been observed in other countries of

South Asia where strong son preference is thought to result in relative nutritional and medical

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neglect of female children (Das Gupta, 1987; Basu, 1989). The 2007 BDHS confirms the

findings from the 2004 BDHS that there is no longer a notable difference in the post neonatal

and under five mortality rates of male and female children.

LITERACY TREND:

With increasing the population and slowing fertility rate, major changes in age structure is seen.

The table below shows 2007’s estimated age structure.

Age structure:

0-14 years: 34.6% (male 24,957,997/female 23,533,894)

15-64 years: 61.4% (male 47,862,774/female 45,917,674)

65-over: 4% (male 2,731,578/female 2,361,435)

This change causes and over all change in available work force population that contributes to the

country’s economic growth, which we can see in the graph below is again on the rise.

This happened due to the increases in life expectancy and a rapid decline in fertility, leading to a

substantial reduction in the youth dependency ratio, thereby helping to boost growth rates of

income per capita.

People with high incomes naturally tend to place a high implicit value on their time. Given that

child rearing is time intensive; it is not surprising that they also tend to have fewer children.

Hence the emphasis on education has increased. Literacy rate has increased to such a level that

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Bangladesh now holds the 151st position in the world literate list with a 53% of literate

population. This is a great news as increased literacy has increased the economic development of

the country by increasing its red white and gold collared labour force.

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Literacy:

definition: age 15 and over can read and write

total population: 47.9%

male: 54%

female: 41.4%

KEY-

As we can see from the graph below, by the year 2007, major increase is seen in the number of

students seeking an education.

This suggests that income growth tends to promote fertility decline. This is a positive effect of

good health status, as measured by life expectancy, on economic growth, this finding reflects the

greater incentives long-lived people have to save for old age, increased returns to investments in

human capital associated with having longer horizons over which to recoup those returns, higher

productivity, and lower rates of absenteeism.

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IMPACT ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT:

Since 1990 Bangladesh has seen major improvements on a number of development indicators,

including rates of economic growth, poverty reduction, population regulation, infant mortality,

and literacy. It has been less successful in tackling wealth and income inequalities, infrastructure

problems, energy supplies, and the broader management of economic development. Its economic

progress over the past 15 to 20 years has led the World Bank, in a recently released up-beat

report (2007), to state that Bangladesh could become a middle income country (per capita gross

national income of US$875) by 2016. To do this it is suggested that it needs to deepen its

industrial base, become more integrated into global markets and priorities urban economic

development as a key driver of growth. The report states that a sustained growth rate of 7.5

percent is required to make this transition. Initial responses by Bangladeshi economists and

media commentators have been mixed, with some criticizing the report for its focus on absolute

poverty rather than relative poverty and its failure to address rising income and wealth

inequalities.

Bangladesh has been very successful in improving the social standing of its population. For

example, it has achieved some of the Millennium Goals but remains at low level internationally.

The 2006 United Nations Human Development Index (a measure of life expectancy, education,

and income) ranked Bangladesh 137 out of 177 countries, behind both Pakistan and India.

However, some of the more impressive social statistics are the following:

• Life expectancy grown from 50 in 1971 to 64 in 2007

• Population growth rates have halved

• Child mortality reduced by 70 percent but gender gap remains

• Improvements in maternal nutrition but uneven and gap widening

• Decline in child malnutrition but still high

• Literacy has more than doubled

• Gender gap in schooling up to secondary declining but still big gaps between rich and poor

• Improved disaster preparedness

• Greater visibility of women in public space and non-traditional jobs

An important role has been played here by the partnership between Government and

NGOs working to provide better services at the grass roots level.

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REFERENCE:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh

http://www.indexmundi.com/bangladesh/population.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Bangladesh

Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia by David E. Bloom, David

Canning, and Pia N. Malaney, CID Working Paper no. 15

file:///F:/Bangladesh.html

http://rhythmbangladesh.blogspot.com/2010/12/demographics-of-bangladesh.html

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3452.htm

http://www.acdi-cida.gc.ca/acdi-cida/ACDI-CIDA.nsf/Eng/JUD-12915389-S7Y

http://www.banbeis.gov.bd/trend_analysis1.htm

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bg.html

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