The CoForTips project was

funded by the ERA-Net

BiodivERsA, with the national

funders ANR, BELSPO and

FWF, part of the 2012

BiodivERsA call for research

proposals.

CoForTips –

This research was supported

by the CoForSet project,

funded by the FRB 2013 call

for research proposals

“Scenarios of Biodiversity for

Sub-saharan Africa”.

Quelle trajectoire?

Qui choisit?

Quel plafond? Pour la sécurité de qui?

Qui gagne et

qui perd?

Quels

objectifs?

Résilience

de quoi?

Pour qui?

Scenario Planning in an Uncertain World

Conservation Biology

Volume 17, Issue 2, pages 358-366, 25 MAR 2003 DOI: 10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01491.x

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01491.x/full#f1

The probablePredictions, forecasts and projections

futures that will be

The possibleScenarios

futures that could be

“Il est important de penser au futur, parce

que nous sommes condamnés à passer avec

lui le reste de notre vie”

W. Allen

• The purpose of scenario

planning is not to pinpoint

future events but to

highlight large-scale

forces that push the future

in different directions.

• It's about making these

forces visible

• It's about helping make

better decisions today.

http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html

Why should we use scenario planning?

(1) understanding of key uncertainties,

(2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into planning,

(3) greater resilience of decisions to surprise.

Peterson et al., 2003

Coupling social and ecological drivers to

explore alternative futures for the forests of

the Congo Basin

Objective

Foster better management of the

Congo Basin forests

through a better understanding of :

the dynamics, regime shifts and tipping points of

biodiversity

the resilience of forested social ecological

systems

and the construction of scenarios of biodiversity

3 Thematic Components 1. Identifying Tipping Points in the Forests of the

Congo Basin SES, mapping biodiversity

resilience, identifying stable states and tipping

points

2. Constructing Scenarios of Biodiversity,

integrating social, economic, governance,

ecological and geophysical processes in a

platform able to simulate regional trajectories

3. Fostering Resilience, embedding the results of

our research in the decision making process at

the regional and national levels, through well-

defined impact pathways involving policy makers

and the civil society

Program Management

Embedding Results

Constructing ScenariosIdentifying Tipping Points

WP 1: Resilience

Landscapes

WP 2: Drivers of Change

WP 3: Integratedplatform

WP 4: Biodiversityscenarios

WP 5: Fostering

Dialog

WP 0: Project

Coordination

Program Management

Embedding Results

Constructing ScenariosIdentifying Tipping Points

ResilienceLandscapes

Drivers of Change

Integratedplatform

Biodiversityscenarios

Embedding

FosteringDialog

Advisory

Group

Steering

CommitteeProject

Coordination

Understanding the SES

WP 1: Norms and policies

Results

WP3: Learning Lessons

Constructing Scenarios

WP 2: Compensation scenarios

CoForSet

CoFo

rSet

CoFo

rSet

CoForTips

CoFo

rTips

CoFo

rTips

Team Science

Advisory Group

• contribute to the definition of the

problems addressed,

• ensure the relevance of the scenarios,

• act as champions for the project

CoForTips – AERES 2014

Bodies

Advisory GroupRosalie Matondo

Rép du Congo, conseillère du président

Shango Mutambwe

RDC Professeur ERAIFT

Prudence Galega

Minef Cameroun

Jacques Mavoungou,

Masuku et IRET, Gabon

Josiane Kondaoule,

RCA, Ministère EFCP

Martin Tadoum

COMIFAC

CoForTips – AERES 2014

Selected sites along a gradient illustrating the

forest transition

Guefigue(Cameroun)

Makokou(Gabon)

Mindourou,(Cameroun)

Embracing complexity

Seriously!

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

DRIVER

DRIVER

DRIVER

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

Resilience of Forests

Resilience of Forests

Resilience of Forests

Resilience of Forests

Resilience of Forests

Resilience of Forests

Resilience Landscape

Tipping

points

Stable equilibria

(basin of attraction)

Unstable

equilibria

Un

sta

bilit

y

Resilience Landscape

Bounded Rationality

Behavioral Plasticity

Our ability to maintain the resilience and

diversity of tropical forests around the world

depends critically on our ability to foster multiple

transitions in the way in which these forests are

exploited, managed, and restored […]

MODELISATION PARTICIPATIVE

WP4

Eglantine FAUVELLE, Micresse KAMTO, Lucas SCHNAPPER, Laurene

FEINTRENIE and Helene DESSARD.

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

TREND

PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE

DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVERDRIVER

DRIVER

OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

1

5

Information Action

3

2

Multi-Agent Systems

1

4

Complex models of

complex systems

Macro Level

(observation)

Micro Level

(description)

Constraints

Emergence

BROADENING

SCOPES

FOSTERING

DIALOGUE

MONITORING

DEBRIEFING

ENGAGEMENT

Our ability to maintain the resilience and

diversity of tropical forests around the world

depends critically on our ability to foster multiple

transitions in the way in which these forests are

exploited, managed, and restored […]

Terroirs a multi-usages

Clarifier le droit foncier

Investir dans des agences statistiques

Respecter les droits

des populations

Faire respecter la loi

Mises en defens

Sensibiliser sur la

biodiversite

Faire jouer des ministres

Investir dans du planning familial

Plans d urbanisme avec ceinture

verte multi fonctionnelle

Formation pour appui a l

agriculture

Plan d amenagement participatifs

Sortir du capitalisme

Investir dans la protection

des elephants

Application du no net loss sur

mines et infrastructures

Moratoire sur la

conversion des forets

dites degradees

Devenir vegetarien

Promouvoir la creation d entites

collectives

Publier et communiquer

Arreter de voyager

Promouvoir les actions

locales aupres des bailleurs

Promouvoir la

bioprospection dans le

respect de la convention cbd

Inclure les questions de stabilite et

de securite dans nos recherches

Creer des ilots de

bonne gouvernance

Travailler avec les

investisseurs publics et prives

Creer une carte d usage des sols

unique pour le BC

Promouvoir l intensification

de l agriculture

Inclure le concept de trame verte

dans les projets industriels

Mettre en place un plan d

affectation des terres

Negocier un seuil de

deforestation acceptee

Impliquer les ONG dans les

travaux de recherche

Canaliser les mouvements

de population