Upload
joe-murphy-librarian
View
1.199
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Strategic Education Directions & Getting There Through Foresight
Joe Murphy University of Houston MS in
Foresight program.SFSU Exec. MBA
Christa McAuliffe technology Conference. Manchester, NH. Dec, 2015
Joe Murphy@libraryfuture
What if foresight factored in to design?
Many Londoners disrupted by Tube strikes stuck with their change commutes after finding them more efficient despite what the Tube map optimized. The popular Tube map was not designed with future economic and social factors in mind.
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/224813/response/560395/attach/3/London%20Connections%20Map.pdf produced by Transport for London
Joe Murphy
Predictions
@libraryfuture
The FUTURE
Multiple alternative
futures
Approaches to the future
Multiple alternative
futures
Multiple alternative
futures
Joe Murphy
There are no rules about the future
but are there laws?
@libraryfuture
Joe Murphy@libraryfuture http://www.houstonforesight.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/FF-slide-version.png
The future is unknown, not unknowable
Joe Murphy@libraryfuture
Mapping
Art by Eileen Jerrett
Joe Murphy@libraryfutureunwrapping the present, the current era Art by
Eileen Jerrett
Joe Murphy@libraryfuture https://coggle.it/
@libraryfuture
Questions in the context of technology in education and learning • 1. What current facts/variables dominate the discussion about technology in learning? • 2. Who are the important stakeholders in the education and technology ecosystem? • 3. Beyond the above stakeholders, who else is impacting the environment that should
be considered? • 4. What basic past events began the current era of technology in learning? • 5. Name a few Trends (trends say “more” or “less” of something) of note in the arena. • 6. What are the most important and uncertain items facing us? • 7. What disrupting events, expected or not, may impact where the future is headed? • 8. What issues (conflicts/controversies/dilemmas and choices) whose resolution will
impact futures. • 9. What new intriguing ideas, images, or perspectives are emerging?
Joe Murphy
@libraryfuture
STEEP QUESTIONS
Joe Murphy
• What factors in the following areas have potential to impact the education ecosystem?
• Political/regulatory - ______ • Economic factors - ______ • Social and cultural factors, the human and society side - ______ • Technology - ______ • Please name an accepted assumption about the future of education
in a technological world. • Are there any weak signals that put that assumption at risk?
Joe Murphy@libraryfuture
Joe Murphy
History: era analysis & historiography
@libraryfuture
Joe Murphy@libraryfuture
Joe Murphy@libraryfuture
ExpectedNormative
Baseline
Joe Murphy
Alternative Futures
@libraryfuture
The prototypical futurist tool
Joe Murphy
Preferred Future
@libraryfuture
Joe Murphy@libraryfuture
Implications
Joe Murphy@libraryfuture
Joe Murphy
Strategic options, how we might respond to the issues
What is the issue? _________________
Why is it important? _________________
What should we do about it? (actions required) _________________
How do we make it happen (resources required) _________________
Who “owns” it? (responsibility) _________________
@libraryfuture
Joe Murphy
Design Thinking
@libraryfuture Art by Eileen Jerrett
Joe Murphy
Systems Thinking@libraryfuture
Joe Murphy@libraryfuture
Scenario planning
Joe Murphy@libraryfuture Six Pillars as another foresight method
Joe Murphy
Spiral dynamics
Joe Murphy
Cross impact analysis
Variable 1 Variable 2
Event 1
Event 2
@libraryfuture
@libraryfuture Joe Murphy
Art by Eileen Jerrett
Joe Murphy@libraryfuture
Big questions
@libraryfuture
If we are now in the knowledge age, what is next?
Joe Murphy
@libraryfuture Joe Murphy
What to ask/give futurists?
Listen for implications when presented with “the future of X is Y”
ask for: what you can provide as the industry insider (trends, scanning hits, ) to help guide a foresight framework?
share assumptions, facts on recent historical era
@libraryfuture Joe Murphy
studying our future ~
studying the past
Island California
we map the future that we expect
https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/rs814rm1327
Copyright © Stanford University.
Creative Commons License. Image from the Glen McLaughlin Map Collection courtesy Stanford University Libraries.
https://purl.stanford.edu/rs814rm1327
@libraryfuture
A simple goalFor us to walk away with an additional question or two to ask when considering our futures
Joe Murphy
@libraryfuture
Takeaways
The future does not have to be a
surprise
The future does not have to be solely
pushed externally
When the future is a surprise - you have what it takes to deal with it (and
guide it)
Joe Murphy
Joe Murphy@libraryfuture
“What is a futurist?” Houston Foresight. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff0j5s8e1M0
Joe Murphy
My Story: Physics Degree -> MLISc – Uni Hawaii -> Yale Science Librarian -> Director Library Futures -> MBA -> M.S. Foresight
My Habitat: http://libraryfuture.com [email protected] Twitter @libraryfuture www.linkedin.com/in/joemurphylibraryfuture