From Food Supplies: to

Sustainability & Beyond

Claudia Ringler, IFPRI

#IFPRI40 November 18, 2015

From production to sustainability..

Production

• Staples

• Supplies/

• Quantity

Productivity

• Irrigation

• Fertilizer

• Gender matters

Sustainability

• Ecosystem health

• Climate

• New Technologies

• Nutrition

• Gender matters

1970s/80s 1980s/90s 2000s/Today

???

• Risk management

• Production decoupled from resource use

• Conflict

Tomorrow

1) Forward looking supply and

demand projections then…

Source: IFPRI Research Report No 1 (1976): Meeting food needs in the developing world.

1) Forward looking supply and

demand projections now

Biodiversity threats

GHG emissions / ΔSOC

Water Pollution

Land Use Change

(Micro) nutrients

Energy module

.. @ highly disaggregated scale

Production System& Market Access Analysis

MESO SCALEPixels as Units of Analysis

Policy AnalysisMACRO SCALEAggregate, market/geo-political units

Fixed Geographies of Analysis

e.g., IMPACT/WATER,GTAP derivatives

Flexible Geographies/Units of Analysis

e.g., DREAM,MM models

DISAGGREGATION

AGGREGATION

HH Level AnalysisMICRO SCALE

Urban/Rural Consumption InputsProductionIncome tercileRegion

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 50 100 150 200

Yield(t/ha)

Fertilizer (kg[N]/ha)

2040

6080

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

N/A0

2040

Yield(t/ha)

IrrigationThreshold (%)

Improved variety

N Fertilizer Application(kg[N]/ha)

Planting in November

IFPRI’s in-house cluster (160 CPUs)

HarvestChoice

& highly disaggregated technology

options

Source: Islam et al. (in preparation)

Crop yields(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)

2) The case for investment in

agricultural research then & today

• “Given the central role that food plays in human welfare and national stability, it is shocking—not to mention short-sighted and potentially dangerous—how little money is spent on

agricultural research“ (Bill Gates 2012)

• Also, need for agricultural R&D transformation with greatly

increased institutional, human, and financial resources (2010 Global

Conference on Agricultural Research for Development—GCARD roadmap)

Source: IFPRI Research Report No 3 (1977): Food needs of developing countries. Projections of production and consumption to 1990.

2) Investing in agricultural R&D pays

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

SSA Brazil China USA SA Global

Source: Nin Pratt, 2015 and ASTI.

Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Index (1975 = 1.0)

3) Understanding of agricultural

development from …

The farmer = the farm household

The government = the main supplier of research

Adoption of technology = f (technology only),& only staples

Singular policy solutions

3) Multiple institutions & actors

in play with multiple innovators

Time

Short Long

S

p

a

c

e

Farm

Com-

munity

Nation

Property Rights

Coordination

State

Co

llect

ive

Act

ion

Forests

Watershed management

Terracing

New seeds AgroforestrySoil Carbon

Integrated Pest Management

Irrigation

Seed Systems

Group

Source: Meinzen-Dick, R. (2014).

Debunking myths on Green Revolution

• Smallholders benefit: Yield growth = 3% / yr (1961-85)• Agricultural growth multipliers: Each $1 earned on-farm

additional $1 to local economy

Successes in promoting sustainable production

Demystifying conventional belief on potential of less-favored areas

• Investments in less-favored areas yields great returns• Road investments: Poverty reduction BCR = 10:1

Promoting sustainable land & water management

• Influencing policy on land degradation: Cost of action vs. inaction on overgrazing = 1:5 in Niger; global water data supported WEF call for water crises as major risk

Understanding of impact of climate change on agriculture

• IFPRI climate change data are a main source used in the global debate on agriculture and climate change

Highly disaggregated analysis of agricultural technologies

• Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity, > 30,000 downloads

But complex challenges &

opportunities remain and new ones

appear

Sustainability

Postharvest losses

Over-consumption

Zero deforestation & soil, land &

water degradation

Climate variability and

change

Sustainable energy supplies

Multiple innovators & institutions

Inequity/Conflict

Nutrition and health

• Focus on nutritious food supplies, agricultural research and resource-conserving technologies for all crops of importance to humanity, striving for

– More resilient production systems

– Delivering more food with fewer resources

– With cost-effective policies, investments, and technologies

Thus, from a focus on food

supplies & sustainability to