Feeding the World: the role of the

Oceans

Alessandro Lovatelli Aquaculture Branch

Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Food and Agriculture Organization

Rome, Italy

7-9 October 2014 Rome, Italy

FAR TOO MUCH TO COVER!!!!

• Demand for fish today and tomorrow • Supply: Capture fisheries vs. aquaculture • Main challenges in mariculture Space, technology and the environment

• Governance • ACTIONS

The PRESENTATION

………..marine ecosystems, and

the resources they provide, are

increasingly threatened by land-

use change, overfishing, climate

change, invasion of non-native

species, and other impacts of a

rapidly growing human population.

Marine ecosystem services by Dr. Emmett Duffy (2006)

AN OPENING QUOTE

This is the BLUE planet

NASA Planet Earth Photo

The OCEANS:

72% of the

Earth’s surface.

Healthy ocean

ecosystems are

vital to human

welfare.

The 21st century

challenge faced

is: feeding a

rapidly growing

population.

9 billion by

2050

What OCEANS give to us All kinds of Provisioning, Regulating, Cultural and

Supporting services.

• Fish and plants as a source of protein and

micronutrients (food)

• Pharmaceutical compounds (medical cures)

• Fixation of atmospheric carbon by algae

• Regulation of the climate and weather trends

• Provide mass transportation routes

• Provide pleasure and wellbeing (recreation)

etc., etc., etc., etc.

………………………………………………….…..MORE???

Rio+20 ”The Future We Want” Declaration

Maintaining biodiversity and

ecosystem services while

feeding the world

• 1 The three dimensions of sustainability

• 2 Humanity freed from poverty and hunger

• 21 9 billion people by 2050

• 32 Country specific challenges

• 52 Farmers and Fishers important

• 113 The crucial role of sustainable fisheries

THE OBJECTIVE IS:

The future

ahead of us

?

………… is this our FUTURE?

WORLD POPULATION

=

………… is this our FUTURE?

HUNGER INCREASE??

HUNGER INCREASE??

=

MORE FOOD

NEEDED =

Where will the FOOD come from? Competition

for many

natural

resources is

and will

further

increase.

LAND

FRESHWATER

……….. and

increasingly also

OCEAN SPACE

1997-98 1948-49

A glance at CAPTURE FISHERIES

Dramatic biomass decline

THE MESSAGE IS:

Can FISHERIES supply more?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Percentage of stocks assessed

Global trends in the state of world marine stocks since 1974

Non-fully exploited

Fully exploited

Overexploited

THE MESSAGE IS: Maximum sustainable potential from wild

capture fisheries in the oceans has been reached!

How much are we producing TODAY!

Source: FAO FISHSTAT

2010 2011 2012e

(2012)

2012/

2011

Production 148.0 156.2 156.7 (158)

0.3% (1.1%)

Capture 89.0 93.5 90.2

(91.3)

-3.5%

(-2.4%)

Aquaculture 59.0 62.7 66.5

(66.6)

6.1%

(5.7%)

World fishery production Million tonnes (live weight)

Source: FAO FISHSTAT

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Mill

ions

ton

nes

World Fish Production

Capture fisheries

Aquaculture

Source: FAO FISHSTAT

Fish Supply (mt) 2010

(baseline) 2030

(projection)

Aquaculture 59 123

Capture fisheries 88 88

Total supply 147 211

% of aquaculture: 40 58

Source: Estimation of FAO/FI Department

ASSUMPTIONS:

• Aquaculture follow recent trend • Capture fisheries remain stationary

211 million tonnes fish in 2030

QUESTION: Is the supply enough to feed future population?

FISH supply today and TOMORROW!

FISH demand (population growth only)

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Bil

lio

nWorld Population

World

Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America and Caribbean

Northern America

60.4%14.8%

8.6%

10.7%

5.0% 0.5%

2010

Source: UN (2010 revision)

58.5%18.8%

8.4%

8.9%

4.8% 0.6%

2030

Fish Demand (mt) 2007

(baseline) 2030

(projection)

Africa 9.0 14.0

Asia 86.4 96.3

Europe 19.4 19.9

L.A. & C. 15.2 16.4

Northern America 9.1 10.7

Oceania 1.1 1.4

World 140.3 158.8 Source: Estimation of FAO/FI Department

• To maintain baseline consumption in every country, 159 million tonnes of fish needed to feed world population in 2030.

Total supply (211 mt) > Total demand (159 mt)

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Bil

lio

nPopulation growth

World

Africa

Asia

Europe

L.A. & C.

N. America

Oceania

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Africa Asia Europe L.A. & C. N. America Oceania World

%

Growth of GDP per capita: 2010-2020

Fish Demand (mt) 2007

(baseline) 2030

(projection)

Africa 9.0 18.7

Asia 86.4 186.3

Europe 19.4 23.4

L.A. & C. 15.2 18.3

Northern America 9.1 12.9

Oceania 1.1 1.8

World 140.3 261.2

Source: Estimation of FAO/FI Department

Demand (population & income growth)

S-D gap (mt)

Supply 2030

Demand 2030

S-D gap 2030

Africa 11.7 18.7 -7.0

Asia 156.5 186.3 -29.8

Europe 18.6 23.4 -4.8

L.A. & C. 16.2 18.3 -2.1

Northern A. 6.2 12.9 -6.6

Oceania 1.5 1.8 -0.3

World 210.7 261.2 -50.6

Source: Estimation of FI Department

• Per capita fish demand in 2020 estimated based on assumptions:

– GDP per capita projection by IMF

– Prices unchanged – Preference unchanged

• Total fish demand in 2030 estimated based on:

– Estimated per capita demand in 2020.

– UN population projection in 2030.

– Non-food fish demand unchanged

• Results: – Supply < Demand

• 51 mt shortage – S-D gaps decline in all regions

• Largest insufficiency in Asia

Fish supply–demand GAPs

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

2024

2028

Mill

ions

met

ric

tonn

es

Food Fish Supply and Demand Gaps

Supply from culture (actual)

Supply from capture (actual)

Supply from culture (potential)

Supply from capture (potential)

Consumption (actual demand)

Demand (2007 level)

Demand (population growth only )

Demand (both population and income growth)

The publication launched in China earlier this year

Focus on projections for the years

2013-2022

The increase

will be driven

by aquaculture

FISH??

MARICULTURE

FARMING THE OCEANS

?

?

?

Bridge the supply-demand from ...

World inland aquaculture and mariculture production

23%

43%

Farmed food fish by top 15 producers

Relative contribution of aquaculture and capture fisheries

to food fish consumption

It is 50:50 today

• Land and water

• Cost and energy efficient productivity

• Ecosystem impacts

• Feeds: Fishmeal and Fish Oil

• Technology and knowledge

• Biosecurity and health

• Finance and investment

• Conducive policy

Main CHALLENGES

CHALLENGE: Land and water

• Recently released FAO publication

• Global potential (worked on selected species)

• Potential based on a number of physical and biological parameters

• Also based on current cost factors, i.e. the economics of doing marine farming today

CHALLENGE: Land and water

What does the present status of mariculture

indicate about its future potential

• Offshore areas are largely unused for mariculture

• 44% of maritime nations/territories are not practicing mariculture

• 0.3 million km of coast where mariculture is not yet practiced

• About 1/3 of inshore mariculture production is plants, but there

is as yet little attention to the production of plants (or of fish or

shellfish) offshore

• Of (93) countries and territories

already practicing mariculture,

51% produce less than 1 mt/km of

coastline

• These observations suggest that

there is potential for the

development mariculture

Where do we go if there’s no SPACE

Commercial shipping Cable runs Animal viewing areas

Rhode Island Ocean

Special Area

Management Plan

(SAMP)

Sharing space

IMTA

E.g. Space allocation - OMAN Potential areas for shrimp farming and for sea cucumber restocking

CHALLENGE: Technology

- Mariculture engineering has progressed -

More is needed to ensure consistently

commercially viable production systems

Farming structures Servicing vessels Remote monitoring

PRODUCTION

Farmed

species

&

Production

cost

MARKET

Consumer

acceptance

&

Competitive

$$$$

=

Competitiveness is alsoKEY

MUST BE ATTRACTIVE!!

Important biological factors: • A robust species with an elevated resistance to stress

(e.g. handling)

• A species that can be easily reproduced in captivity and in large

numbers

• A species that grows fast and converts feed/nutrients efficiently

• A species that is not highly vulnerable to external diseases

• A species that can grow to market size in farming enclosures

Important socio-economical factors: • A species that has a market demand (local and/or international)

• A species that can be produced economically and competitively

• A species that has a good flesh yield (product differentiation /

processing)

What SPECIES

What species … an example

Cobia

• Artificial propagation

• Fast growing / sturdy

• Good meat yield • Market acceptance • Attractive for

processing

What species … an example

BFT ?

• Market good • Good meat yield • Market acceptance • Attractive for processing • Fast grower

• Artificial propagation? • Highly carnivore

LUCIANO 55 dph

What species ……………….. OTHER

BIVALVES

Species lower in the food chain

SEAWEEDS

CHALLENGE: Technology

Genetic Improvement Programmes

………………… the supply gap caused by

decreasing output from capture fisheries

and the increasing human population

could be filled simply by incorporating

genetic improvement programmes into

already existing aquaculture systems (i.e.

no additional farming systems, land or

water usage would be required)”.

FAO. 2008. Aquaculture development. 3. Genetic resources management. FAO Technical Guidelines for Responsible Fisheries

CHALLENGE: Technology

Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian, Spanish

THE MESSAGE IS: Sharing know-how and technology

CHALLENGE: Feeds

Fed and non-fed aquaculture

• It is estimated that over 45% of global aquaculture (90% in marine

fish) is fed aquaculture species (mainly finfish and crustaceans)

• Exogenous feeding (external supply of feeds): growth dependent

upon the external supply of feeds

• Total industrial compound aquafeed production has increased from

1995 to 2008 by 284%

• Industrial aquafeed growing at an average rate of 11.0%/year

• If aquaculture growth is to be sustained then feed ingredient and feed input supply must grow at a similar rate

THE MESSAGE IS:

Availability of feed will be one of the

most important inputs if aquaculture

has to maintain its sustained growth

to meet its challenge of increased

production.

CHALLENGE: Feeds

Feed: fishmeal and fish oil use

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

Fish meal content in aquafeed for different cultured species

Freshwater finfish Diadromous finfish

Marine finfish Crustacean

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

Fish oil content in aquafeed for different cultured species

Freshwater finfish Diadromous finfish

Marine finfish Crustacean

A good news!

CHALLENGE: Feeds

More non-fed fish for future?

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Mil

lio

ns t

on

ne

s

Fed - other species

Fed - crustaceans

Fed - diadromous & marine finfishes

Fed - fresh water finfishes

Non-fed - sillver & bighead carps

Non-fed - bivalves & others

Percentage of non-fed species

CHALLENGE: Environment

!! Carrying capacity of a

site is rightly a HOT

topic!!! Long-term

sustainability

CHALLENGE: Governance

CHALLENGE: Governance

• Most Members thought it inevitable that aquaculture will move further

offshore if the world is to meet its growing demand for seafood.

• Urged the development of appropriate technologies for its expansion

and assistance to developing countries in accessing them.

• A number of Members did not find working on a governance

framework for aquaculture in the High Seas an immediate priority

indicating that the laws of the coastal State fully apply in territorial

waters and exclusive economic zones while the legal framework

provided under the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea

may be sufficient to regulate aquaculture activities in areas beyond

national jurisdiction including the High Seas.

What was said:

CHALLENGE: Governance

CHALLENGE: Governance

Phuket Consensus - Global Conference on Aquaculture (2010)

The Colombo Declaration (2011)

Bremerhaven Declaration (2012)

Encourages FAO Member States to identify and allocate appropriate

space and provide access, governance and regulatory frameworks

for their territorial waters and EEZs for mariculture developments by the

industry.

To bring the above recommendations and assessment to the attention of

its Member States at the COFI Sub-Committee on Aquaculture so as to

engage a stronger partnership between the public and private

sectors.

Encourage public and private investment in research and

development of mariculture in ABNJ.

• Water space – is there a coastal development plan? Does this plan takes into account aquaculture as a rightful user?

• Zone allocation – have the best sites for aquaculture been identified and allocated?

• Concession / licensing – Do procedures exist, are they clear and comprehensible, well coordinated and permits obtainable in a reasonable time? One-stop-shop!

• Documents – type and details required must be clear (EIA)? Efficient information exchange between the authorities and entrepreneurs

POLICY… is it conducive?

• Financing and investment – Aquaculture is

primarily a private sector driven industry

• Critical action areas – increasing efforts in moving

aquaculture further offshore, including further

research and adoption of new offshore aquaculture

technology

AQUANOR 2012…………

Conducive policy environment is created

Concerted efforts Strong political will is

key

More investment is crucial for improving

aquaculture and increasing production

Stronger Public-Private Partnership

What governance issues are important in the long-term to

engage and give confidence to the private sector

• Investment policies

• Sea area/space allocation/use policies

• Institutional and legal support

Supporting expansion and intensification

• Further development of appropriate technologies (offshore)

• Integration with lower-trophic level species

• Increased production of non-fed species for food security

• Increased production of fed species for income generation

…….Supporting expansion and intensification

• More research into disease control

• More research into alternate sources for animal protein meals

• Sustainable intensification towards increasing per unit

production and reducing per unit cost of production

• Sustainable sourcing of resources (seed, feed, etc.)

• Mitigation and adaptation for climate change

Support information exchange and image

• Providing and sharing quality information

• Supporting technical cooperation and know-how exchange

• Improving image

Political will and adequate funding are paramount

in overcoming

obstacle to improvement

FACTS • 1.3 million tonnes

of food wasted worldwide

• Can supply food to the hungry in the world (3 times over)

Losses along all the value chain Wide ranging

causes for food waste calls for a

variety of problem solving

approaches

Global Initiative

on Food Loss &

Waste Reduction

Source: FAO. 2011. Global food losses and food waste

Reducing waste

• 25% of fishmeal is now produced using fish processing waste

• Zero waste concept is now being applied in several aquaculture species

• Future prospects looking good!

X

www.aqua-conference2010.org

Thank you - 0 -

Grazie

7-9 October 2014 Rome, Italy