Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056

Health and Safety

Antarctic Youth Council

Charlie Wilkinson Miranda Voke Jacob Anderson Christoph Kraus Peggy Cunningham-Hales

Hanne Nielsen James Tremlett Lagi Tuimavave Ngahuia Leighton(Chair)

Panel

Andrew Townend Dr Neil Gilbert Rear Admiral John Martin Lou Sanson

Tim NaishLionel Carter

• A healthy (almost-)centenarian• An enduring ban on mining• A vigorous system of governance

The Antarctic Treaty in 2056

Andrew Townend

The Antarctic Treaty in 2056

Dr. Neil GilbertIndependent Antarctic Consultant

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

2000

2010

2020Territorial claims

Regime implementation

Regime development

Sealing Convention

Mining Convention

Fishing Convention

Environmental Protocol

Antarctic Treaty

Agreed Measures ?

Liability Annex

• Influencing factors– Antarctic values (peak science?); climate & environmental

change; increasing human activity; belief in the system

• Choice 1 – Business as usual– Huge past success leading to “interested laissez-faire”

• Choice 2 – Enhanced commitment– Determination to invest in current system– An ATS fulfilling its global responsibilities

• Choice 3 – Future reinvented– A revised 21st century governance regime

The Antarctic Treaty in 2056 – it’s a choice thing!

Rear Admiral John Martin, ONZM…

Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056

• What will be the emergent threats?

• Is our organisation consistent with our strategy?

• What is the honourable thing to do?

• Why our history with Antarctica really matters as kiwis

• Why a policy pull on science is so important to New Zealand

• Why people in nature will ultimately keep the ATS strong

Lou Sanson

Lionel Carter

ice sheet loss increasing √

ice shelves retreating √

more icebergs ?

sea ice slight increase X

ocean warmer and fresher √

sea level rising √

changing winds √ currents stronger √

less alkaline √

biota affected e.g. plankton √ ?

31 Jan. 2002

23 Feb. 2002

13 April. 2002

Source: NSIDC

S. Ocean last 50yr - ongoing

CampbellPlateau

DWBC

STF

?

?

?UU

O

Unclear

Observation

W

W A

WC

C

T

NZ Pole vs Equator now and ongoing

?

An example

Subantarctic NZ Ocean warming Reduced W winds Nutrients More blooms Likely Outcome Algal dominant as per

last warm period.

Antarctic Treaty System and Science

Guarantees continued freedom to conduct scientific research

Promotes international scientific cooperation including the exchange of research plans and personnel, and requires that results of research be made freely available

Tim Naish

NZ’s scientific tradition & reputation in Antarctica

Big International Antarctic ScienceANDRILL

Ocean Drilling

Ice Coring

Census of Marine Ant. Life

Latitudinal Gradient Project

Science DiplomacyMcMurdo Wind Farm

Admiral Dufek boards the Endeavour

• Science and diplomacy increasingly important to NZs broader foreign policy agenda

• China, Korea, USA, Italy

Future science aligned with national and international priorities and directions

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

Sources listed in Church et al. IPCC (2013)

DeConto & Pollard 2016

Golledge et al., 2015, Also Ritz et al., 2016, Nature1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

(m)

Climate change impacts on Antarctica and the impacts of Antarctic ice melt on global sea-level rise by 2065

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

RCP 8.5 business as usual

RCP 2.6 Paris target

• RCP 2.6 saves the Antarctic ice shelves

• More than 2°C above pre-industrial commits Antarctica to ongoing melt and sea-levels up to 10m above present.

• A critical issue for future ACTS is mitigation strategy to achieve Paris target

2065

Thank you