ESA 2012 talk

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Text of ESA 2012 talk

  • 1. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingUNKNOWN UNKNOWNS: MANAGEMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY & ALTERNATE STABLE STATES @cboettig Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 1/33
  • 2. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Decision Resilience Theory Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 2/33
  • 3. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking 1 Introduction 2 Management model: sheries 3 Decision Theory 4 Resilience Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 3/33
  • 4. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 4/33
  • 5. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingBuilding blocks State Space Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
  • 6. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingBuilding blocks State Space Action (Decision) Space Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
  • 7. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingBuilding blocks State Space Action (Decision) Space Ecological model (State equation) Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
  • 8. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingBuilding blocks State Space Action (Decision) Space Ecological model (State equation) Socio-economic model Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
  • 9. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingBuilding blocks State Space Action (Decision) Space Ecological model (State equation) Socio-economic model Value function Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
  • 10. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingBuilding blocks State Space Action (Decision) Space Ecological model (State equation) Socio-economic model Value function Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
  • 11. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingState space | Action space Fish stock size Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 6/33
  • 12. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingState space | Action space Fish stock size x Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 6/33
  • 13. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingState space | Action space Fish stock size Fishing harvest intensity x Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 6/33
  • 14. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingState space | Action space Fish stock size Fishing harvest intensity x h Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 6/33
  • 15. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingEcological model | Economic Model Stock recruitment function Xt+1 = Zn f (Xn ) Beverton-Holt Ax f (x) = 1 + Bx Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 7/33
  • 16. Introduction Management model: sheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingEcological model | Economic Model Prot equation Stock recruitment function (x, h) = p min(x, h) Xt+1 = Zn f (Xn ) h h c0 + c1 Beverton-Holt x x Ax f (x) = p price of sh 1 + Bx c0 , c1 costs Bellmans Value function Vt = max Th Vt+1 + (xt , ht )e(T t) (1) h Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 7/33