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Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS:
MANAGEMENTUNDER UNCERTAINTY
& ALTERNATESTABLE STATES
@cboettig
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 1/33
DecisionTheory
Resilience Thinking
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 2/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
1 Introduction
2 Management model: fisheries
3 Decision Theory
4 Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 3/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 4/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Building blocks
State Space
Action (Decision) SpaceEcological model (Stateequation)Socio-economic modelValue function
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 5/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Building blocks
State SpaceAction (Decision) Space
Ecological model (Stateequation)Socio-economic modelValue function
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 5/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Building blocks
State SpaceAction (Decision) SpaceEcological model (Stateequation)
Socio-economic modelValue function
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 5/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Building blocks
State SpaceAction (Decision) SpaceEcological model (Stateequation)Socio-economic model
Value function
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 5/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Building blocks
State SpaceAction (Decision) SpaceEcological model (Stateequation)Socio-economic modelValue function
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 5/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Building blocks
State SpaceAction (Decision) SpaceEcological model (Stateequation)Socio-economic modelValue function
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 5/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
State space | Action space
Fish stock size
x
Fishing harvest intensity
h
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 6/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
State space | Action space
Fish stock size
x
Fishing harvest intensity
h
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 6/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
State space | Action space
Fish stock size
x
Fishing harvest intensity
h
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 6/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
State space | Action space
Fish stock size
x
Fishing harvest intensity
h
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 6/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Ecological model | Economic Model
Stock recruitment function
Xt+1 = Znf(Xn)
Beverton-Holt
f(x) = Ax
1 +Bx
Profit equation
π(x, h) = pmin(x, h)
−(c0 + c1
h
x
)h
x
p price of fishc0, c1 costs
Bellman’s Value function
Vt = maxh
(ThVt+1 + π(xt, ht)e−δ(T−t)
)(1)
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 7/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Ecological model | Economic Model
Stock recruitment function
Xt+1 = Znf(Xn)
Beverton-Holt
f(x) = Ax
1 +Bx
Profit equation
π(x, h) = pmin(x, h)
−(c0 + c1
h
x
)h
x
p price of fishc0, c1 costs
Bellman’s Value function
Vt = maxh
(ThVt+1 + π(xt, ht)e−δ(T−t)
)(1)
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 7/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 8/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 9/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 10/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 11/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 12/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 13/33
DecisionTheory
Resilience Thinking
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 14/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
What could go wrong?
f(x) has some stucturaluncertainty
Policy makers don’t listen tomathematically optimalstrategies
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 15/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
What could go wrong?
f(x) has some stucturaluncertainty
Policy makers don’t listen tomathematically optimalstrategies
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 15/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
What could go wrong?
f(x) has some stucturaluncertainty
Policy makers don’t listen tomathematically optimalstrategies
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 15/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Resilience thinking approaches
Early warning signals oftipping points
Considering keystakeholders
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 16/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Resilience thinking approaches
Early warning signals oftipping points
Considering keystakeholders
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 16/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Abandon decision theoretic approaches?
No! Synthesize resilience concepts withdecision theories. . .
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 17/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Abandon decision theoretic approaches?
No! Synthesize resilience concepts withdecision theories. . .
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 17/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Sometimes hard to identify the “increase” signal
Carpenter et al. 2011
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 18/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Decision theory needs probabilities, not possibilities
Boettiger &Hastings2012
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 19/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Decision theory needs probabilities, not possibilities
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 20/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Decision theory needs probabilities, not possibilities
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 21/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Policy Costs
Policy makers don’t listen to mathematically optimal strategies?
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 22/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Socio-economic optimum strategy
Reality: typical policy
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 23/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Socio-economic optimum strategy
Reality: typical policy
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 23/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
There is a cost to changing policy
we canmodel that. . .
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 24/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Adding costs to changing policy
ΠL1(xt, ht, ht−1) = Π0 + c2 abs (ht − ht−1) (2)
ΠL2(xt, ht, ht−1) = Π0 + c2 (ht − ht−1)2 (3)Πfixed(xt, ht, ht−1) = Π0 + c2I(ht, ht−1) (4)Πasym(xt, ht, ht−1) = Π0 + c2 max (ht − ht−1, 0) (5)
Where I(a, b) = 0 for a 6= b and I(a, b) = 1 for a = b.
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 25/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Previous Action becomes part of state-space
Previous Action
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 26/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Cost-freeoptimumOptimumunder policycosts
Cost-freestockStock underpolicy costs
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 27/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Cost-freeoptimumOptimumunder policycosts
Cost-freestockStock underpolicy costs
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 27/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Cost-freeoptimumOptimumunder policycosts
Cost-freestockStock underpolicy costs
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 28/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Cost-freeoptimumOptimumunder policycosts
Cost-freestockStock underpolicy costs
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 28/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 29/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 30/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Ignoring political realities leads to worse solutionsReducing policy costs results in better management
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 31/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Conclusions
Decision theory provides a quantitative way to addresspolicy choices under uncertainty
But: traditional framework ignores key possibilities thataren’t probabilitiesModeling approaches can sometimes quantify these, andidentify when they matter mostMore synthesis of resilience thinking and decision theory isneeded!
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 32/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Conclusions
Decision theory provides a quantitative way to addresspolicy choices under uncertaintyBut: traditional framework ignores key possibilities thataren’t probabilities
Modeling approaches can sometimes quantify these, andidentify when they matter mostMore synthesis of resilience thinking and decision theory isneeded!
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 32/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Conclusions
Decision theory provides a quantitative way to addresspolicy choices under uncertaintyBut: traditional framework ignores key possibilities thataren’t probabilitiesModeling approaches can sometimes quantify these, andidentify when they matter most
More synthesis of resilience thinking and decision theory isneeded!
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 32/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Conclusions
Decision theory provides a quantitative way to addresspolicy choices under uncertaintyBut: traditional framework ignores key possibilities thataren’t probabilitiesModeling approaches can sometimes quantify these, andidentify when they matter mostMore synthesis of resilience thinking and decision theory isneeded!
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 32/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Conclusions
Decision theory provides a quantitative way to addresspolicy choices under uncertaintyBut: traditional framework ignores key possibilities thataren’t probabilitiesModeling approaches can sometimes quantify these, andidentify when they matter mostMore synthesis of resilience thinking and decision theory isneeded!
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 32/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Acknowledgements
Image creditsNOAA
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
flickr users gfpeck, saneboy, tranchis
Boettiger et al 2012
Scheffer et al. 2001
Code, lab notebook, and more:http://carlboettiger.info/
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis [email protected] Management under uncertainty 33/33
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