Steve ShelleyWork and Employment Research Unit

Hertfordshire Business School

The future of work and employment in Britain

in a zero carbon scenario

Paper presented to the British Sociological Association

annual conference 2015‘Societies in transition: progression or

regression’

Stream:‘Risk, globalisation, climate change and

beyond: environment and society – transitions

towards a sustainable society’

Me

Utopias1. Me – environmental sustainability interest2. Me – combining this with my professional work3. Centre for Alternative Technology. ‘Zero Carbon

Britain – rethinking the future’4. Government and business. Business as usual,

economic growth5. Green, planning, communities. Decentralised,

meritocracy, endemic technology.6. The labour movement and trade unions

Zero Carbon Britain: rethinking the futureAllen et al, 2013. Centre for Alternative Technology

Current plans for carbon reduction are not substantial enough nor quick enough

Offers a holistic and globally-responsible blueprint for carbon reduction

Suggests integrated and technically feasible solutionsTo rapidly reduce UK greenhouse gas emissions to

net zero by 2030, using only currently available technology (non-nuclear) and whilst “maintaining a modern standard of living”

And whilst creating 1.5m new jobs in the UK

The key ZCB proposalsPowering down energy demand (by 60%)

Powering up renewable energy

A healthy diet from low carbon reduction

Diversifying land use

Critical analysis‘Good jobs’ and ‘bad jobs’

‘Small is beautiful’

  Powering down Powering up Healthy diet Diversifying land use

Job creation Job loss Paid employment

Unpaid work Contract security Location  Education and skillup/downre-skilling

Pay  Careers  Gender  Work-life balance

A ‘futures’ ‘backcasting’ methodology?The Utopias

And me!

  

 

ONS Labour market statistics

GovBIS

UKCES

EmployersSSCs

‘Academic’future of work

scenarios(Business oriented)

‘Green’ oriented future of

work scenarios

Campaign against Climate Change(TUs)

ZCBCAT

UKCES (UK Commission for Employment and Skills)

Futures programme. ‘Future of work’ Four scenarios

One ‘business as usual’, three ‘radical’

All have a minor mention of ‘resources and environment’

as “a potential ‘disruption’” to business

Sector Skills CouncilsCogent (2014)

“workforce… with the capability, drive and ambition to build a globally competitive science-based industry, and support companies’ growth and productivity” (p.9)

CITB (2014)Need to train for 224,000 new construction jobs as the economy picks upHouse building, and large scale commercial and infrastructure development

Both ‘advise BIS on a “long term approach to support industry” (to 2020)

LANTRA (2014)

‘Academic’ future of work sources‘Lynda Gratton investigates: the future of work’ (Gratton,

2010)One of her ‘five forces for change’ – ‘low carbon developments’Accepts “the world will have heated up, sea levels rising and

climates changing” (p.20)Companies to organise their resources to ‘future proof’ the

company

Richard Donkin ‘The future of work’ (Donkin, 2010)Digitally-based and flexibly located workProfessional workers ‘good’ employers

The Built Environment, Planning and ‘communities’ literature

Pratt, A. (2008) ‘What are the factors that could influence the future of work with regard to energy systems and built environment?’ Energy Policy, 36, 12, 4646-4651.

Roseland, M. (2000) ‘Sustainable community development: integrating environmental, economic and social objectives’, Planning in Progress, 54, 73-132.

Linkages between natural and social capital: reducing environmental degradation and poverty.Advocates stronger and more sustainable communities.He draws on earlier work by Shea (1994)

‘Green’ futures literature‘New Welfare’ scenario (Sessa and Ricci, 2014)Community/household-based sustainable self-sufficiency

(Tonn and Stiefel, 2014)Demos Helsinki (2012) and Neuvonen et al (2014)

‘Sustainable Lifestyles’ in 2050 Based on TMC reduction of natural resource use, from

current EU av. 40-50 tonnes pp pa, to 10 tonnes pp pa. Two-by-two matrix (technology - societal governance), four

scenarios ‘local loops’ (endemic technology – meritocratic society)

closest to ZCB?

But all short on work and employment implications

‘One Million Climate Jobs’

Campaign against climate change (2014)

New jobsCaCC

New jobsZCB

Activity Jobs 

Activity Jobs

Renewable energy 400,000 Renewable energy 1,330,000Transport 310,000    Building conversions

185,000 Powering down    150,000

Industrial support and advice

  25,000    

Research and training

  35,000    

Agricultural research and advice

  25,000    

Waste and forestry   20,000 Forestry      40,000 Total

 1,000,000

 Total

 1,520,000

New jobs cited by CaCC and ZCB

‘One Million Climate Jobs’Campaign against climate change (2014)

900,000 new jobs in renewable energy, building retrofitting, and a mass electricity-powered public transport system

100,000 new jobs in industry, training and education, and agriculture and waste

Not dissimilar to ZCB. Wants to cut energy needs by “about half”, and supply “almost all our energy needs from renewable power” (p.18)

Lack of further detail………… beyond numbers of jobs….?And……..     

‘One Million Climate Jobs’Campaign against climate change (2014)

Cohesiveness and representativeness of the trade union movement?

CaCC is an informal grouping of trade unionistsKeeps options open for carbon capture and ‘clean’ coal and gas power stationsAnd nuclearEmphasis on conventional employmentA nationalised ‘National Climate Service’ employer

Trade union movement divided on nuclear (TUC, 2014a)and 

‘Jobs before planet’ (TUC, 2014b)

Utopias1. Me – environmental sustainability interest2. Me – combining this with my professional work3. Centre for Alternative Technology. ‘Zero Carbon 

Britain – rethinking the future’4. Government and business. Business as usual, 

economic growth5. Green, built environment, planning, communities. 

Decentralised, meritocracy, endemic technology.6. The labour movement and trade unions 

ConclusionsA disconnect

In interest-perspectives, and in timescalesConventional employment – work/life styleWork and employment literature - policy and practiceGreen literature - sustainable living initiatives

Little consensus upon which to base future work analysis

AmbiguityOpportunity

Where next?Small steps, big pictureCAT collaborative climate project – ‘Zero Carbon: making it happen’. 

Primary research – work and employment in communities, Transition, etc. Skill, education and training issues.

Maintain critical analysis  Good jobs and bad jobs Small is beautiful