Development Geography II

Rayke Nelis | Wouke Oprel | René Vermeulen | Afke van der Woude

Post-conflict countries in AfricaRwanda | Burundi | Liberia | Sierra Leone

Aim of the paper:

To answer question:

Which of the countries Rwanda, Burundi, Liberia and Sierra Leone performed best in the period 1990-2010?

Problems:

• “Developed best” is very subjective!• Different views on what is (and what brings)

development. • How to measure development?• Is there sufficient data available?

Scoring scheme

Index

Country

GDP PPP

(millions

US$)

GDP per

capita

(US$)

HDI GINI Extreme

Poverty

(% below

US$1,25)

Points

Rwanda

Sierra

Leone

Burundi

Liberia

The number 1 of one index gets 4 points, number 2 gets 3 points, etcetera.

Approaches• Classical-traditional, Historical Empirical, Alternative/bottom-up

• Not one approach selected, but combination made, because:

• For example:• World Bank very important for the countries

(think of PRSP!) Cl.-Trad.• A country’s history (violent conflict!!) cannot

be left out in analysis. hist.-emp.• HDI takes basic needs into account. altern.

IndicatorsTo measure development and compare the countries

• HDI human development– Health– Education– Standard of living

• GDP economic development• Poverty indicators• GINI-coefficient inequality• Migration/refugees/remittances

One country as example:

Liberia

Early history• From 1816 American Colonization Society

(ASC) resettled slaves to Africa.• 1822 Settlement in Liberia.• 1838 Commonwealth of Liberia.• 1848 Recognition by other countries 20.000

former slaves migrate from USA.• Americo-Liberian elite unequal relation

between returned slaves and indigenous groups.

History of conflict

• 1980 Coup d’état by Samuel Doe violent rule• 1989/1990 Charles Taylor rebellion “First Round of

Liberian Civil War”• 1997 peace restored by ECOWAS – Economic

Community of West African States• 2000 fights resume “Round 2”• 2003 peace restored again (ECOWAS & UNMIL –

United Nations Peacekeeping Mission in Liberia)• 2005 first female head of state in Africa; Ellen

Johnson Sirleaf

• Two tracks for analysis:– Economic Indicators– “Human” (social) Indicators

Economic Indicators 1

• GDP• GDP per capita (in HDI)

• Sectors change• Import/export• Trade balance

Economic indicators 2• Evolution of GDP per capita, 1960 – 2007 (constant 2004 US$).

Economic Indicators 3

• Share of different sectors of the GDP in Liberia from 1987 to 2005

Mind the gap

Economic Indicators 4

Imports and exports in Liberia from 1978 to 2004.

Mind the gap

Economic Indicators 5

• Trade balance of Liberia from 1978 to 2004 in millions US$.• Trade balance in 2008 -500 million US$

Economic Indicators 6

• Real GDP and inflation in Liberia (outlook)– Recently: influence World’s Credit Crisis.

Human Development Index

HDI trend

0.365 0.370 0.325 0.280 0.419 0.427 0.434 0.442

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007

HDI 2007

HDI value

Rank (score)

169. (0.442)

Life expectancy at birth (years) 141. (57.9)

Adult literacy rate (% ages 15 and above) 133. (55.5)

Combined gross enrolment ratio (%) 142. (57.6)

GDP per capita (PPP $) 179. (362)

Inequality

• GINI-coefficient in 2007: 52,6 = » Very High Level of Social Inequality

• The richest 10% posses over 30% of the country’s income.

• The poorest 10% posses only 2,4% of the country’s income.

Poverty

• 83,7% below $1,25 a day line extreme poverty

• 94,8% below $2 a day.

Refugees

“With the return of the remaining registered internally displaced people (IDPs) in December 2006, the process of resolving Liberia’s internal displacement crisis was considered complete. More than 326,000 IDPs returned to their areas of origin and the 35 camps that had hosted them were officially closed in April 2006, formally marking the end of a 17-year period during which much of Liberia’s population of three million had at some time been internally displaced.”

International Displacement Monitoring Centre, 2007.

Concluding• Back to comparing scheme:

Index

Country

GDP PPP

(millions

US$)

GDP per

capita

(US$)

HDI GINI Extreme

Poverty

(% below

US$1,25)

[Points]

Rwanda 8,4 [4] 343 [4] 0.460 [4] 46.7 [2] 76,6 [3] [17]

Sierra

Leone

4,0 [3] 284 [3] 0,365 [1] 42.5 [3] 53,4 [4] [14]

Burundi 2,9 [2] 115 [1] 0.394 [2] 33.3 [4] 81,3 [2] [11]

Liberia 1,3 [1] 198 [2] 0.442 [3] 52.6 [1] 83,7 [1] [8]

Off course, as mentioned before, this system of comparing is highly questionable!But it gives a small insight in the comparison between the countries.

• Liberia has a long way to go from the conflict and as the figures show; recovery comes slow.

• Targets of the PRSP are to rebuild the country’s economy, decrease external debts and improve human living standards for all people.

• Development for all people in all layers of society. (Bottom up-approach)

Final comments