Decision theory1 0

Decision Making with Uncertainty, Foundation and Critical Elements

www.theevansgroupllc.com

Brian Wax


Chip Evans, Ph.D. www.theevansgroupllc.com

Physical Evidence

1. Much of today’s evidence supporting our belief systems stand as absolutes. Examples would be our laws of

physics and science as a whole that have determined the following to be correct

a. The earth is round

b. Gravity exists within a closed atmosphere

c. Thousands of examples prove the existence of our physical world

2. The above facts provide a model of technical advancement based on real, measurable and tangible events and

products

3. We develop words and phrases to articulate empirical facts. In fact, we rely on most of the physical world to be

where we exist. We live in homes that can be found through GPS coordinates etc.

4. Our world—earth and beyond are the parameters we live within since we simply cannot leave our planet

without the aforementioned technologies

Human Interaction

5. The self, is how we interact with the external realities—the above facts plus feeling of sensations cold, hot

euphoria and dysphoria, misinterpretation and bad directives. These sensations usually start with a biological

experience that says the temperature is cold, hot, or psychological manifestations of fear, anxiety and

depression

6. It is the melding of the internal processes with biological reactions that produces reactions leading to specific

outcomes/decisions—despite the know elements or factors impinging upon cogent decision making

7. Conclusion: A duality exists that allows us to see how the self interrelates from an external focus (Physical

Evidence) with personal reactions including the spiritual/emotional realm

8. As a result we are subject to all types of input that help us guide the ever increasing technology and complexity

a. Religious, spiritual combined with mandates from management and the need to survive.

9. Pedagogical models/methods teach and tell us how to think. We are subject to marketing and other influences

that drive irrational behaviors

10. If the external self the integrates with internal, community decision making becomes more effective due to

comprehensive awareness, analysis and finally action

System Definition

www.thefreedictionary.com/system

TheFreeDictionary.com

A group of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent elements forming a complex whole. 2. A

functionally related group of elements inter-related and interacting creating a higher degree of

function or dysfuntion such as feedback loops



Systemic External Definition of Self

Factors influencing

our perception

Religion

Politics

Job expectations

Education

Peers

Adversaries

Marketing of

products

Risk

External

formulation of

self

Creation of action

oriented behavior

Rote Response(s)

Do as instructed

Response

according self

Reject

Accept

Redirect

Outcomes, Results and

consequences

External Self External Self

External Self

External Self

Integration

Synthesis of

Experience

Community/Team/

System/Organization

Output/

Review



I/We=integration of the internal self (emotional feeling self)

I/WeDecisions

Project Plans

Family

Peer Pressure

PoliticsEconomics

Relationships

Infidelity

Unrealistic

deadlines

Inside the integrated self is where the

turbulence is created. It can be a

cacophony of thought in conflict driven

by complexity

Who are you in relation to all of the

external complexity?

How do you discern any direction? How

do you make sense of things

What is best

for the I/we

Factors influencing

our perception

Religion

Politics

Adversaries

Success

Risk

Community

Relationships

Rethinking how we relate to Community, Ourselves and finally the I/We

Understand

the external

Self

Understand the

relationship between

Ext. Self and

community

Internalize

and filter

Status quo:

{Enter status

quo here}

{Enter

desired

outcome

here}

Desired

outcome:

{Enter

restraining

forces here}

Driving

forces

Restraining

forces

{Enter

driving

forces here}

Force Field Analysis

Cause/Effect Analysis

Work through

course of action

Feelings,

morals, social

impact

Factual Spiritual Optimum Course of Action



Listening to the I/We

1. Mindfulness

a. Sharing

b. Coaching

c. Influencing

Definitions

1. Self = The person in the world

2. “I” =Person/self interrelating with the world

3. We” = the self in community with others

4. I/we = the I interrelating creating I/we as seen within the “We”

5. Iwee, (IWEE) = self seeing the world internally within the community

6. Best course of action