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David Crossley Handout Gulf Coast Green Symposium 2009, Houston, Texas
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Sustainability,
Prosperity,
Survival,
I’mterrified.
2
January 22, 2009
January 22, 2009
Q: Do you think we will survive?
A: I don't think humans react fast enough or are clever enough to handle what's coming up.
James Lovelock,Author of the Gaia Theory
Theproblems:sciencevsideologydesirevsneednobroadlyacceptedvision
Asingularity
8
9
PillarsofCreaBonDestroyedbysupernova6,000yearsago
Bang
3,000galaxies
milkyway500,000,000,000stars
Sun
Streamsofmaterialandenergyflowfromthesunandplanetarysourcesthroughtheeconomicsystemtotheplanetarysinkswherewastesandpollutantsendup.
Therearelimits,however,totheratesatwhichsourcescanproducethesematerials
andenergywithoutharmtopeople,theeconomy,ortheearth’sprocessesofregenera9onandregula9on.
19
http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch8en/conc8en/img/biosphere.gif
In1972theworld’spopulaBonandeconomyweresBllcomfortablywithintheplanet’scarryingcapacity.
TherewassBllroomtogrowsafelywhilewecouldexaminelonger‐termopBons.
Buttherewasapossibilityoftotalcollapse,“overshoot.”
Veryveryveryveryfewpeoplethinkthislarge,thisfarout
YaleeconomistHenryC.Wallichlabeledthebook“apieceofirresponsiblenonsense”
“ThemostamazingaspectofthebookishowaccuratemanyofthebasictrendextrapolaBonssBllaresome30yearslater.”
Ma?hewSimmons
“ThedatacomparisonpresentedherelendssupporttotheconclusionthattheglobalsystemisonanunsustainabletrajectoryunlessthereissubstanBalandrapidreducBoninconsumpBvebehavior,incombinaBonwithtechnologicalprogress.”
AComparisonoftheLimitstoGrowthwith30YearsofReality‐GrahamTurner,CommonwealthScienBficandIndustrialResearchOrganisaBon,Australia
Theworldhasovershotsomeofitslimits,andwithoutchangeswefacethevirtuallycertainprospectofaglobaleconomiccollapse.
‐1992
Humanityhassquanderedtheopportunitytocorrectourcurrentcourseoverthelast30years,andmuchmustchangeiftheworldistoavoidtheseriousconsequencesofovershootinthe21stcentury.‐2004
THEDRIVINGFORCE:EXPONENTIALGROWTHFormorethanacentury,theworldhasbeenexperiencingexponenBalgrowthinanumberofareas,includingpopulaBonandindustrialproducBon.
ThegreatestshortcomingofthehumanraceisourinabilitytounderstandexponenBalfuncBon.
Dr.AlbertA.Bartle`,DepartmentofPhysics,U.ColoradoBoulder
30
31
32
Effect of Growth Rates over one lifetime (70 years)
time period 70 years
rate of growth factor
current pop 6,000,000
1% 2 12,000,000
2% 4 48,000,000
3% 8 384,000,000
4% 16 6,144,000,000
5% 32 196,608,000,000
Houstonattheendofthecentury
33 0
7,500,000
15,000,000
22,500,000
30,000,000
2005 population 2035 population2065 population
2095 population
HermanDaly’sdefiniBonofsustainability:
Developmentwithoutgrowthbeyondenvironmentalcarryingcapacity,wheredevelopmentmeansqualitaBveimprovementandgrowthmeansquanBtaBveincrease
HermanDaly
“Wearebasicallylookingnowatafutureclimatebeyondanythingwe’veconsideredseriouslyinclimatemodelsituaBons.”
ChristopherField
Democracy Now, February 26, 2009
Carnegie Institution for Science, Co-chair, Working Group II of the IPCC, testifying before the Senate, Committee on Environment and Public Works
No American newspaper or television station reported this story.
“ThisisamomentofgreatvolaBlityandinstabilityintheworldsystem.Weneedurgentlytodowhatwecantoavoiddeepcollapse.”‐C.S.Holling
arabianbusiness.com/542705-the-end-of-the-world-is-nigh
seedmagazine.com/news/2009/02/urban_paradox.php
[WhiteHousescienceadvisor]JohnHoldrencomparedglobalwarmingtobeing“inacarwithbadbrakesdrivingtowardacliffinthefog.”
39
Ques9on:Doyouthinkwewillsurvive?
Answer:I'manopBmisBcpessimist.Ithinkit'swrongtoassumewe'llsurvive2°Cofwarming:therearealreadytoomanypeopleonEarth.
At4°Cwecouldnotsurvivewithevenone‐tenthofourcurrentpopulaBon.Thereasoniswewouldnotfindenoughfood,unlesswesynthesizedit.
Becauseofthis,thecullduringthiscenturyisgoingtobehuge,upto90percent.Thenumberofpeopleremainingattheendofthecenturywillprobablybeabillionorless.
Ithashappenedbefore:betweentheiceagestherewerebo`leneckswhentherewereonly2000peoplelej.It'shappeningagain.
James Lovelock,Author of the Gaia Theory
In1972ourrecommendaBonstoldhowtoslowgrowth.
NowwemusttellpeoplehowtomanageanorderlyreducBonoftheiracBviBesbackdownbelowthelimitsoftheearth's
January 22, 2009
PopulaBonlevelsoffbetween2030and2070–andbeginstodecline
Financial
Total income by quintiles 1979-2002
TheSeniorTsunami
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Y e a r
0
5 0 0
1 , 0 0 0
1 , 5 0 0
2 , 0 0 0
Thou
sand
s
Peo
ple
Turn
ing
65 in
Yea
r
Economicchaos
Quality of life vs standard of living
Nature‐deficitdisorderdescribesthehumancostsofalienaBonfromnature,amongthem:
diminisheduseofsenses,a`enBondifficulBes,highcrimerates,depression,higherratesofphysicalandemoBonalillnessotherurbanmaladies.
“thismaybethefirstgeneraBonofAmericanstolivelesslongthantheirparents.”
Dr.RobertN.Butler,InternaBonalLongevityCenter,MountSinaiSchoolofMedicine
50
51
Globalsources
Foodtravelsbetween1,500milesand2,500milestoreachyourplate.
Weflyle`uceherefromAustralia.
Hurricanes,terrorism,andenergypricescancausemajordisrupBons.
Contaminantsaccumulateandarepassedalong.
PolluBonmovesthroughthefood
TheglobalviewPlentyoffood.DistribuBonrestrictedbyeconomics,culture,governmentcorrupBon,warfare,andmore.
2009drought
55
Energysecurityagrowingworry
DistribuBontrouble
NotjustglobalwarmingEconomicmeltdownGrowingwealthgapEnergyshortagesShorterlives?FoodsecurityDeclininghealthIncreasingstress
58
So….?
TheEuropeanVision
Polycentricregion,polycentricciBes
SOURCE: United Nations SecretariatWorld Urbanization Prospects:
TheEuropeanUnionplansafutureinwhichregionswithmul9plecentersorganizeintocollaboraBveeconomicclustersthatformsustainablenetworksofaccess,mobility,andgreeninfrastructure.
•Randstad, Netherlands
Weareametrona9on.80%ofusliveinmetroareas85%ofjobsareinmetroareas
It’saboutnodesinanetwork.
Megaregions
2050‐GrowthintheTexasTriangle
Watersheds
Ecoregions
The concept:multiple centers organized into collaborative economic clusters that form sustainable networks of access, mobility, and green infrastructure
Strategies:• Protect the ecostructure• Enhance regional connections
By
EbenezerHoward
1898
Longest walk: 1.5 miles
Center to edge: 3/4 mileFifth Avenue:1.6 milesGrand Avenue:3.3 milesRailroad5 miles
3/4 mile
Welwyn Garden City, UK , 120,000 population
Ulm, Germany, 120,000 population
80
CiBes,Towns,Villages,Neighborhoods
Americanpreferences
PewResearchCenter,Social&DemographicTrendsproject
PewResearchCenter,Social&DemographicTrendsproject
PewResearchCenter,Social&DemographicTrendsproject
By a ratio of more than three-to-one, Americans prefer living where the pace of life is slow, not fast.
ThePaceofLifewalkingspeedvs.populaBonBorstein & Bornstein
Nature 1976Bornstein, IJP 1979
Strategy:Changethestory
Changethegoals
ChangetheinformaBonflow
Map:Houston Wilderness
“Houstonwasdesignedaroundthecar.”NOT
Originally,HoustonwasacharmingSwissvillage
Houstonbeganasasmartgrowthport.
Withagreaturbanplan
Earlydevelopmentwasbasedontransit
1927UnBlthe1940s,Houstonwastransit‐oriented
Houston1.0:WalkableUrbanism
ThencamePlanB,Houston2.0.
Socialengineeringpublicpolicydesignedtoforcealifestyle
Source: adapted from Newman, P. and J. Kenworthy (1999) Sustainability and Cities
Energy consumption vs.population density
3,538,000morepeople
Massivelossofgreenspaceincludingprairie,forest,marshland,riparian,andagriculturalland
Anotherloop.(eachbeltwaylowersretail&servicetrade2%‐5%*)
*Nelson & Moody (J. Urb. Pl. & Dev. 2000)
112
Citizen goals:
The2035RTPGoals:1.Improvemobility,lesscongesBon,andcost.2.BuildstrongercommuniBes.3.Increasetransit.4.PreservefloodplainsforwaterdetenBonandrecreaBon.5.Healthierenvironment.
“Activity intensity” = jobs + residents/acre
“Urban Design to Reduce Automobile Dependence,” by Peter Newman and Jeffrey Kenworthy
Intensity below 14 people/acre begins rapid acceleration of car dependency
• CentralBusinessDistrict
• TownCenter
• Railway
• LocalCenter
• TransitCi9es
• BusorLRTroute
Leon Krier
123
4
4
HoustonIspolycentric Dispersed
density
Rail‐supporBveareas
Central Business District
Universities
Med Center
Uptown/Galleria
Greenway
Gulfton
Projected ridership:250,000 boardings per day
Rail‐supporBveareas
Station areas could absorb 1/2 of City’s population growth
Pop 200,000Jobs 450,00025% of all jobs
Houston3.0:WalkableUrbanism(again)
Thenew(old)model
Networks & Nodes
Conceptual plan for restructuring an automobile city
Neighborhood Center
Town Center
Regional Center
Urban Core
Connections
New Approach: Sustainable Mobility
Vehicle Miles Traveled per Household
“Fingersofnature”ineveryneighborhood
SustainableHoustonRegionswithmulBplecenters
organizeintocollaboraBve
economicclustersthatform
sustainablenetworksofaccess,
mobility,andgreeninfrastructure.
SustainableHoustonwheredevelopmentmeansqualitaBveimprovement
SustainableHoustonQualityoflife>Standardofliving
Sustainable prosperity in a changing world
houstontomorrow.org
sustainablegrowth?sustainabledevelopment?sustainableeconomics?sustainableprosperity?
sustainablehealth,safety,welfare,happiness?
QualityofLife=StandardofLivingQualityoflife>StandardofLiving
144
145
Abiomeisalargegeographicareawith
similaroruniqueplants,animals,andclimate.
146