Cr i t i c a l T h i n k i n g For Eng ineers & Managers

P e t e r C o c h r a n ecochrane.org.uk

ca-global.biz

Beyond the linear and simple

May 2017

our formal edu cat i onI s a l l about the known the we l l under s tood

“What we can mode l and charac te r i se fo rms the bedrock o f our mos t bas i c under s tand ings founded on the s t ronges t o f s c i en t i f i c p r inc ipa l s - t r i ed & te s ted re su l t s ove r m i l l enn ia”

I t i s the best formula our spec ies has der ived - and respons ib le for

a l l human progress - a l l o ther routes lead to be l ie f sys tems - w i t chc ra f t and genera l i gnorance

“Whi l s t i t i s qu i te acceptab le for the mathemat ic ians , phys ic i s t s (et a l ) to dec lare that a prob lem cannot be so lved -

we ENGINEERS en joy no such luxury - we a lways have to ge t an answer”

a u n i v e r s e o f t h e u n k n ow nHow much does our formal educat ion prepare us for th is ?

“As a young student coming into i ndus t r y I t hough t I knew and understood a lot and I was wel l prepared to tackle anything”

“I quickly real ised that this was not the case and my real education was just about to start - and I am st i l l a student”

Where we are educated What we understand wel l

Where we can solve problems A mostly l inear & wel l behaved space

What we know we know What we know we don’t know What we don’t know we don’t know

What we don’t know

What we knowUnknown ??? =

N o n l i n e a r u n i v e r s eWe have no genera l l y app l i cab le so lu t i ons

Our mathemat ics i s l imi ted to ‘Order 5 ’ a t best Our v i sua l i sa t ion on ly extends to ~ 4 d imens ions Our s imul taneous var iab le t rack ing i s genera l l y <7

Our l inear prob lem sets are most ly bounded and tr iv ia l Our non- l inear prob lem sets most ly unbounded & complex Our s imul taneous var iab le t rack ing capab i l i ty i s genera l l y <7

Sheer comput ing power and mode l l ing dominate Po int so lut ions abound and we have to avo id misuse The non- l inear domain demands new approaches / th ink ing

t h e e n g i n e e r i n g t o o l b o xFinding workable solutions can be real ly chal lenging

- Does a solution already exist? - Has anyone else tackled the problem before? - Do scientif ic/engineering papers report similar problem sets - Apply basic analysis exploiting results of paper/people search - Apply advanced analysis/modell ing on the basis of the previous step

I f none of the above works, then:

- Ask - what might a reasonable solution set be? - Apply iteration starting from a best estimate/guess - Conduct detai led experiments to gather data points - Iterate toward a workable solution

d e c i s i o n T I M EFail fast and adapt even faster

In the face of incomplete data and/or information - and facing a big d e c i s i o n d e a d l i n e - m a k e a decision and adapt rapidly to the outcome… ie best guess followed by iterations..

“ E v o l u t i o n f a v o u r s t h e m o s t adaptable and not the strongest or the smartest”

s i m p l e s y s t e m sGenerally within the grasp of a single mind

α

Output ≈ Input (Energy)

Directly related/predictable

Can be conceived, designed and (sometimes) built by a single person

COMPL i cated systemsGenerally beyond the grasp of a single mind

Output ≈ Input (Energy)

Directly related/predictable

Might be conceived by a single person, but (nearly always) designed and built by a team

C O M P L E X s y s t e m sGenerally demands far more than human minds

Output ≈ Input (Energy or State)

Not directly related/predictable

Individual components may be simple, linear, well behaved, conceived, designed and (sometimes) built by a single person, BUT the sum of the parts can and exhibit unexpected and unpredictable behaviours

Medical conditions Teleco NetworksWeather systemsFinancial systemsMobile networksPolitical systemsMobile networksPower gridsInternetConflictWarfareIoT

BMODStrokesMissilesRocketsFloodingTsunamisLandslidesEarthquakes Crime wavesF1 racing cars Fighter aircraft++++++

No top down design

Impossible to specify

Impossible to design

Difficult to model

Easy/Hard to realise

Easy/Hard to control

Easy/Hard to operate

Unpredictable

Evolves + Adaps

Always Changing

Unstable/Stable

Emergent behaviours

Beyond human grasp and abilities

Established wisdoms do not apply

Mathematics no longer works

No general laws

C O M P L E X i t yGoverns the universe and all life

Only ever Evolves/Grows/Builds

from small to big

simple to complex

And NEVER the converse

s p r e a d M o d eBiological & man made commonality

Virus Meme Desease Malware

AXIOM...still not understood by many...

Taking an interest in every system known to mankind pays dividends in providing us with insights and challenging concepts and occasionally , really useful results...

..and we no longer design, deploy and operate our systems in isolation...we live in a world of natural and unnatural systems... evolved and designed...

...and the way they connect coexist and interact is important especially when life dependency and mission critical issues are at stake !

Only we design & optimise - evolution rests at good enough

“We often appear use vastly complex solutions to achieve incredibly simple outcomes…whilst Mother Nature mostly seems to do the converse”

B I G D i f f e r e n c e s

“Mother Nature cannot do what we do, but then she is still confounding us”

Only goes for ‘good enough’ and optimises nothing

She conceals her underlying complexity at every level of her constructs and activity...

M o t h e r N a t u r e

Her systems are resilient or they rapidly die out..

The over optimisation of

companies and organisations

in a fast evolving field

leads to their certain demise

Defining ‘good enough’ is not always trivial and is generally the biggest challenge !

~80% of the need satisfied by ~20% of the effort….and then often destroyed/devalued by specification creep….

P e r f e c t i o nThe enemy of good enough

Just because we can add something extra does not mean we should….we have to think in terms of the value to be realised…

Analogue dominant

Digital spreading fast

Hybrid Analogue//Digital ubiquitous

What we know advancing rapidly

Our understanding mathematically limited

Made by mankind we all die without them

Made by machine we all die without them

Our species survival depends upon good systems

Our planets survival depends upon good systems

Machine intelligence overtaking us in many areas

Symbiosis necessary man machine partnerships

Challenges formidable but interesting

G e n e r a l i t i e sThe technology/engineering status quo

Stored information growth

1986 I can’t draw a

dot small

enough!!

.1996

0.001ZB

2006

0.13ZB

2016

13ZB

Impossible to read everything professional for >50 years

ZetaByte = 1021 ExaB = 1018 PetaB = 1015 TeraB = 1012

Prognosis: IoT small data distributed storage may exceed the

internet

>20M texts available<3M selected for analysisArgument abstracted pro - con

No human re source can do th i s !

THE BOXIn, out, or new ?

You can think

inside the box

OR You can create

an entirely

new box !

You can think

outside the box

DIVERSITYMostly essential

Capable people of differing ethnics groups; social, education industry experiences; with a wide

range of discipline differences and diverse modes of thinking

Proven AI engines, modelling and visualisation tools are useful

augmentations to help/overcome the limitations of human thinking

It is never too late to stop everything, abandon a given path

and start again

Search out and identify all those who may be able to help you and

form a (real/virtual) team

STATUS QUOBreaking new ground

“If it your problem were simple, someone would have solved it a

long time ago”

“Be prepared to consider and employ the radical, the new,

and even the crazy”

PENUMBRA/ThoughtsYour chance to ask questions and discuss

cochrane.org.uk ca-global.biz

For more presentations, papers and videos on this topic GOTO: www.cochrane.org.uk

May 2017