Ana CascãoAna CascãoStockholm International Water Institute (SIWI)Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI)DANIDA Development Days 2011DANIDA Development Days 2011Copenhagen, May 3Copenhagen, May 3

Cooperation over transboundary Cooperation over transboundary water resources in the Nile Basin:water resources in the Nile Basin:

potential, obstacles and challengespotential, obstacles and challenges

The Nile River BasinThe Nile River Basin

Com

plexity

Com

plexity

Asymmetries

Asymmetries

Cooperation: possible and desired?Cooperation: possible and desired?

Cooperation = Maximising benefits Cooperation = Maximising benefits

Cooperation in the Nile: PotentialCooperation in the Nile: Potential

Potential: Hydropower and Energy SecurityPotential: Hydropower and Energy Security

7%

49%

22%75%69%

33%

Percentage of technical and economic hydropower potential exploited World Atlas of Hydropower & Dams, 2003

AttractiveAttractive

World Bank, 2004

Potential: Agriculture Potential: Agriculture and Food Securityand Food Security

• Irrigation potential• Improved rainfed agriculture• Livestock trade• Regional food markets

Not so Not so AttractiveAttractive

Potential: Hydropolitics/Politics

Harnessing the cooperation potential...Harnessing the cooperation potential...• Established in 1999 to promote cooperation

between all the Nile riparians (transitional)

• Goal: “Achieve sustainable socioeconomic development through the equitable utilisation of, and benefit from, the common Nile Basin water resources”

• Modus operandi: create enabling environment for the implementation of cooperative projects

• Strong support by international donors

Obstacles to CooperationObstacles to CooperationLegal: Lack of overarching legal multilateral agreement and existence of contested past agreements

Institutional: Delays in establishing a permanent Nile Basin Commission

since 1999 1997-2007 ?

Obstacles to CooperationObstacles to CooperationPolitical: Ongoing political cleavage between downstream and upstream riparians

Structural: Current lack of regional ‘umbrella’ in the Nile region

Perceptions: No full understanding of benefits of cooperation and costs of no-cooperation

CHALLENGES TO COOPERATIONCHALLENGES TO COOPERATION

Parallel realities: Parallel realities: Unilateralism in spite of cooperationUnilateralism in spite of cooperation

New Valley Project – Egypt Merowe Dam -Sudan

Tekezze Dam - Ethiopia

Millenium Dam – Ethiopia

The end of ‘traditional’ funding?The end of ‘traditional’ funding?

NEW FRAMINGNEW FRAMING

Self-financingNew business models

New partners

China, India, Gulf countries, ...

Land-Grabbing: transboundary impacts?Land-Grabbing: transboundary impacts?

Cotula et al., 2009

New geopolitical developments:New geopolitical developments:‘Revolutions’ in the making in the Nile Basin‘Revolutions’ in the making in the Nile Basin

Velvet divorce in Sudan

Popular uprising in Egypt

Concluding remarks...Concluding remarks...

• Rationale and potential for multilateral cooperation in the Nile Basin is strong – but sense of urgency is not yet there!

• New challenges: High time for the Nile countries (and external actors) to rethink their positionality in the hydropolitical chessboard

Thank you!Thank you!