An Engineer imagines. Again

“[For] an intellect [who] would know all forces and all positions of all items; nothing would be uncertain”

Pierre Simon Laplace, 1816

By Christos Ellinas

ce12183@bristol.ac.uk

? ? ?R i s k M a n a g e m e n t

Science of the Crystal Ball

No ScienceEverything is controlled by the Gods. Thus, we can predict nothing

Science Everything is controlled by deterministic laws. Thus, we can predict everything

More Science It depends – usually not and thus, we assume our way out

BC 19th 1960 21st

Three flavours of Engineering

Transistor

A designed system to a simple problem

Few variables

Reductionism –connections are irrelevant

Risk mitigation via prediction

PC

A designed system to a complicated problem

Thousands of variables

Statistical approaches –random connections and Central Limit Theorem

Risk mitigation via addedredundancies

Internet

An evolving system to an ever-changing complex problem

Some variables

Complexity Science – connections are not random; thus they are important

Risk mitigation via limiting exposureand increasing adaptation

“Networks are present everywhere. All we need is an eye for them” –Albert-László Barabási, 2003

21st Century Systems

• Scientist have revealed common organisation principles in systems that we design – how have we responded ?

• We want more with less.

• Risk management focuses on identification, prediction, assessment, record and respond.

• Alas, low-probability high-impact events will resonate longer and harder due to coupling. “Outliers” have become crucial.

• What do we do when what matters cannot be identified nor predicted ? Economy

Internet

Transportation

Power grid

Supply Chains

Social Networks

Construction

Projects

Thank you

Engineering design has been traditionally driven by understanding failure. Recent events have further highlighted

the need to do so.

Lets not let a good crisis go to waste

ce12183@bristol.ac.uk