China Prospect in the New Asia Convergence

Prof. Shermon Cruz Northwestern University; Northern Christian College; Center for Engaged

Foresight

International Conference on China Impact and the New Asia Graduate Institute of Futures Studies (GIFS) Tamkang

University, Taiwan

• Will the rest of Asia benefit from what we call the rise of China?

• What are the hard and soft prospects in light of China’s expanding influence?

• Will these prospects create new opportunities for Asia and thus create the new Asia convergence?

• Or China being China wins it all leaving behind the prospects of other Asian nations to grow?

China + Futures: A view from above

View from Above: What do we talk about when talk about China?

• The US makes China look Stronger• China is preoccupied in sharing “happy

stories” and been busy trying to win the confidence of its neighbors

• China challenges dominant worldviews, perspectives and narratives – foreign policy, regional and global leadership, emergent systems, identity, etc.

• Conquer the heavens via the China New Space Exploration Project

• While the US remains the legitimate Big Brother, the Big Boss has arrived and has become a constant companion, a towering-competing shadow over US interest and futures in Asia.

• China is like a silhouette that is becoming more evident in whatever direction that the US chooses to go. Whenever or wherever they may be, the US will make China look stronger.

• US based investors and corporations, a number of political scientists, pundits praised China as more “business friendly” than the US

• The Socialist State is capable of engineering sweeping change for long-term gains

• Are we witnessing an emerging event, a monumental changing of the guard where socialist authoritarianism or socialist democracy become the preferred system or future of governance?

China and the Philippines in World History

Hard Prospects

• The hard prospects mean visions and panoramas that are audible, visible and virtual.

• The hard prospects are the most obvious, the burning issues, the high priority concerns, and the fad of this generation. The impact of the hard prospects can be felt in the immediate future.

• These prospects have a substantial bearing on local, regional and global interests – tactical, strategic and futuristic. The effects of these hard prospects can be felt overnight whether it’s positive or negative.

• The Red Dragon Wiser or the Will the Ways of the Red Dragon Insist?

Fire and Metal Dragon?

• Will the Red Dragon act wisely as we expect them to be or will his ways become the ways of the fire and metal dragon, combative and assertive?

High-breed Dragon

Soft Prospects: China Enigma

• Ideational and intellectual prospects, possibilities and trajectories that are emergent, archaic in that they are evolving in a leisurely manner.

• Context is long-term and its impact extends over a relatively longer period of time and when the effects begin to mature in the process of adaption and integration, China’s soft and hard powers are legitimized and Asia gets stronger as well.

SOFT PROSPECTS: The China Enigma

• These are the prospects that we tend to ignore as we rarely talk about it given that its nature is not really politically controversial. It may be political but not controversial.

The Heaven Awaits and China Reaches Out

• There is a pattern emerging where some if not all grand narratives, big dreams, powerhouse outlooks, machine visions, sensitive-touch types of visions, science-fiction future visions, spring optimisms, sustainable visions in the world converge in China.

• China Space Launch would have 316,000,000 in a Google search. That is quite massive.

• We may be in for a new wonder and China could be an emerging leader in the emerging dream society of icons and aesthetic experience.

China’s Cube of Soft Prospects

• Will these soft, unnoticed ripples grow into big tsunamis that will make China gigantic in the realm of psycho-economics? Will China re-create the dream society and make it his own dreaming? Will China reach the heavens or become the heaven itself and reach out to create the place where beautiful fantasies and colorful imaginations come true?

• Re-emergence of China’s brand of the arts and sciences (humanities);

• China’s growing ability to provide development assistance to its neighbors;

• China’s policy of non-interference in domestic affairs;

• China’s built-in long term orientation or natural inclination to deep conceptual and futures thinking

China’s Brand of the Arts and Sciences

Development Assitance• A special case is made for the Philippines by China

in view of the fact that it is an exception to the rule• China has three consular postings in the country.

One is in Manila which is the Main embassy, a Consular office in Cebu and a Consular office in Ilocos Norte.

• Philippine President Ninoy Aquino and his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao signed an agreement targeting 60$ billion in trade and investment.

Trade Winds

• Chinese Ambassador Liu Jianchao, is “ready and willing to add power to the winds” of the Philippine economy.

• Moreover, China has assigned an investment expert to Manila making the Philippines the first country in the world to have a resident Chinese investment adviser.

• For 35 years, the trade and investment volume has surge 300 fold from 72$ million to more than 20$ billion in 2009. According to the National Economic Development Authority, China gave the Philippines more in official development assistance.

• If China look good in the Philippines, China may look better in Asia.

• The question is, is the Philippines a good leverage for China to improve its standing in the international community particularly Asia?

• Yes! Simply because the Philippines is where the two giants compete for soft power, for international diplomacy.

• US proposed for an increase in foreign aid budget in the Philippines that includes in foreign military fund ($13.5 million), health programs ($31 million), anti-narcotics ($2.5 million) and military training ($1.7 million)

China Reaches Out and Digging

• “Chinese mining investments are generally met with suspicion.”

• Most Chinese companies and contracts at the national and local are generally viewed as “another government shady deal.”

• Philippines had become an appetizing destination from which to obtain minerals to continue feeding China’s hunger for metals for two reasons—the Philippines has an estimated $1 trillion worth of unexplored copper, gold, nickel and zinc and it is close to mainland China (PSA Report, 2011).

Non-interference as a political capital?

• flexibility and may bring neutrality in cases where conflict requires a mediator or negotiator.

• China only interferes when the interference is positive and promote the principles of peaceful coexistence

• They think that such policy will prevent emerging conflicts from occurring in the region.

• is this an emergent way of dealing with international concerns and preserving the peace in the region? Will this approach create a new Asia convergence or is it really new as it is tied primarily with history and not to the future?

• Is non-interference in domestic affairs of neighboring states the new pact and the new treaty in international diplomacy or is this an age-old worldview of the political that China want to exploit and call the shots in his favor? Should it be deepened or abandoned (by ASEAN and CHINA) once and for all? Is collective-non-action the best action to preserve peace and resolve conflict?

• should Asia design new ways of relating with each other in view of its deepening context of interdependence? What about a policy of interdependence that promotes, that deepen positive interventions by states on matters of cyber crimes, piracy, drugs and other organize crimes?

China ranks the highest of all countries surveyed on Long-Term Orientation

Conclusion

• China’s impact is far more complex in Asia than in any region in the world.

• Its vision and long-term outlook will certainly affect our ways of imagining the possible and preferred Asian futures.

• We can never ignore its growing presence in shaping our individual and collective futures.

New Asia Convergence, Alternative Visions

• The Red Dragon transforms into a High-Breed Dragon (exhibits the traits of earth, water and wood dragon instead of the fire and metal dragon)

• The Dragon dances and celebrated all over Asia: Spratly is resolved and renamed as the Ocean of the New Asia Convergence

• Ancient history and identity re-emerges especially for the Philippines

• The spirit of humanities expressed in the arts, music, literature, and great learning inform and inspire our concepts of Asian creativity, freedom, and transcendence.

• Collective democracy concepts inspire our context of governance and society

• Asia to engage more in collaborative and cooperative projects and provide development assistance that integrates transparency and consultation, that include non-state and non-corporate actors of governance in its network of addressing crisis and prosperity in the region

• The policy of non-interference must be evaluated and reviewed and Asia must try to explore the possibility of building a more synergistic, non-provocative and emergent ways of addressing and transforming regional crises and preventing inter-state or regional conflicts.

• But then again, the dream of the new Asia must go beyond China, beyond the nation-state, beyond the corporate, beyond the dictates of the systems and trends, beyond the experts and surveys, beyond the political parties and so-called official and legitimate views.

• There are non-state actors as well, the super-empowered agencies dreaming of what the new Asia will and should be and are struggling and working everyday to make those dreams and visions come true.

• Their dreams and visions of the new Asia may be more compelling and may inspire future generations.

• The vision of the New Asia, the image of the new or alternative Asia may not be visible or audible for now but certainly given this generation and the next generation intensified dreaming of alternatives – China and Asia may transform into something more futuristic, peaceful and prosperous than what we imagine today.

15th century. The Chinese Communities of Maharlika in the pre-colonial period.