Double-faced Hydropolitical Cooperation in the Nile Basin

Dr. Declan Conway, UEAand

Ana Elisa Cascão, KCL

World Water Week 2009

Hydropolitics in the Nile BasinFEATURES• Complex hydrology• Strong power asymmetries• Absence of basin-wide management• Conflict over water allocation• Weak levels of regional integration

1980s-1990s• “Emblematic events”• Drivers for collaboration/cooperation• Multilateral processes initiated

Nile Cooperation: 2 tracks

1997: COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEEMENT

1999: NILE BASIN INITIATIVE

Cooperation in time of “abundance”

Double-faced Cooperation

EFFECTIVE

• NBI: strong team of technical experts (capacity-building)

• Broader sense of cooperation (BS+WS)

• Addressing legal issues• More balanced up-downstream

barganing power

• Identification of investment projects (SAPs)

• Recognition of multiple benefits

COUNTER-EFFECTIVE

• Weak influence technocratspoliticians

• Deadlocked legal framework• No strong basin institution• Still politicised/securitised• Lack of political commitment

• Few cooperative facts-on-the-ground

• Increasing risk of unilateralism

Flashback and Flashforward

Future

Past

Learning from the past:case studies of climate events in the Nile basin

• What were the responses to these events and what was the role of Nile Basin institutions in these responses?

• Do extreme climate events lead to conflict or cooperation?

• How does cooperation/conflict influence adaptation?

Droughts in Ethiopia, low Blue Nile flows and low level of Lake Nasser (Egypt/Sudan) in mid 1980s.

Flooding and blockage on

Nile in Uganda, 1998-2000

Low levels of Lake Victoria,

2005-2007

Events

– Impacts on power supply, urban water supply, transport, fish landing sites, fears for health of ecosystem

– Tensions between Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya

– Role of regional institutions: cooperative interactions instigated through East African Community, study of water balance and proposed revision to water release policy

– Tensions not yet resolved

Lake Victoria – drop in level

Scenarios of climate and water use for discussion

Decrease in Nile flows Increase in Nile flows

Maintenance of status-

quo

Adaptation necessary throughout basin,

reduced options for adaptation for upper

basin riparians

Positive adaptation possible for Egypt and Sudan (need for upper basin to adapt to flood

risk)

Increasing use of water by upstream

countries

Adaptation options of upper basin countries

may disadvantage adaptation of

downstream countries

Adaptation options available to all

riparians?

Future Climate Change impact on water

Hyd

ro-p

oli

tica

l si

tuat

ion

Cooperation in time of “abundance” is likely to be more effective than in time of “stress”

10 years on: Momentum for reflexive cooperation 2009: Political “emblematic events” in the Nile Basin

Towards more effective cooperation:• Reduced power asymmetries

• Ownership of the process• Ratification of the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA)

• Linkage between CFA and “Benefits-Creation”

Seizing the momentum!

Thanks for your attention!