POWER RELATIONS, CONFLICT AND COOPERATION IN THE NILE BASIN

Ana Elisa CascãoKing’s College of London

Presentation to:“The Curse of Scarcity and Abundance?

Water and Oil Wars in the Gulf and Nile Basin” American University of Cairo

5th April 2008

NILE – HYDROLOGY AND POLITICS

NILE RIVER BASIN

• 1 River• 2 sub-Basins• 10 riparians• Unequal contribution• Unequal utilisation

Disparity of numbers

Main provider

Main user

NILE - WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY

1.8

58.3

30

64.5

122 122

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

km3/y

ear

Egypt Sudan Ethiopia

Internal Renewable Water Resources

Actual Renewable Water Resources

NON-NILE

NILE - WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY AND UTILISATION

1.8

58.3

68.3

55.5

30

64.5

37.3

14

122 122

5.550.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

km3/

year

Egypt Sudan Ethiopia

Internal Renewable Water Resources Actual Renewable Water ResourcesTotal water withdrawalTotal withdrawal from the Nile

DEPENDENCY AND CONTROL

97%76.9%

0%

Egypt Sudan Ethiopia

DEPENDENCY on external water resources (%)

169

8.7 3.5

-

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

Egypt Sudan Ethiopia

TECHNICAL CONTROL - Total storage capacity (km3) LEGAL CONTROL - Allocations of the 1959 Agreement (km3)

Ethiopia0

Egypt55.5

Evapotranspiration 10

Sudan18.5

INEQUALITIES = CONFLICT?

Control

Allocation

Contribution

Utilisation

CONFLICT OF INTERESTS

Historical and acquired rights

Potential needs and uses

“New water”

Storage infrastructuresHydropower

Irrigation

Extreme dependence

Water for development

CONFLICT OF LANGUAGES

POWER RELATIONS MATTER!

EGYPT SUDAN ETHIOPIAGeography

Geography

GeographyMaterial power

Material power

Material power

Bargaining power

Bargaining power

Bargaining power

Ideationalpower

Ideationalpower

Ideationalpower

Two Hydropolitical Dynamics:

Hegemony &

Counter-Hegemony

(Adapted from Zeitoun, 2005)

GEOPOLITICS ARE CHANGING!

USA

CHINA

EUROPE

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

EGYPT

World Bank

COOPERATION = EQUITY?

Equitable utilisation Development

Benefits

Nile Basin

Initiative

CURRENT COOPERATION IN THE NILE BASIN

NILE BASIN INITIATIVE

• Since 1999• Multilateral cooperation• Goal: Project-by-project• “Benefit-sharing”• Godfather: World Bank• Economic integration

COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT

• Since 1997• Goal: New Nile Treaty• Equitable Utilisation + No harm• “Water-sharing”• Constructed Ambiguity• Nile Basin Commission =

Funding

CONFLICT PREVENTION*

Planned Water

Development

Generation of Benefits

Downstream

Alternative Water

Resources

Regional Virtual Water

Control of expansion of commercial agriculture

RelinquishSovereignty

Strong Water

Institutions

Neutral Knowledge

EthicsMulti-level

Cooperation

New Inclusive Agreeement

POLITICAL FLEXIBILITY

Thanks for your attention!