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Unravelling current hydropolitical cooperation
in the Nile Basin
NATO/Arava Water ConferenceEin Gedi, Israel
November 19-21 2007
Ana Elisa CascãoKCL/LSE London Water Group
Introduction Power relations
Hegemony & Counter-
Hegemony
Power & Cooperation
Nile Cooperation
NBI & Investment
NBI & Legal
Cooperation and Hegemony
NILE RIVER BASIN10 Riparian States
Egypt/Sudan: Main water users1959 Agreement
Upstream Riparians: Negligible water use
No Allocations
Inequitable Water Sharing: Nexus Power, Conflict & Cooperation
Introduction Power relations
Hegemony & Counter-
Hegemony
Power & Cooperation
Nile Cooperation
NBI & Investment
NBI & Legal
Cooperation and Hegemony
ASSYMETRIC POWER
Three-dimensional power (Lukes,1974; Zeitoun and Warner,2006)
• Coercive Power • Bargaining Power• Ideational Power
Hydro-hegemony and Counter-hegemony co-exist (Cascão, 2006)
Conflict and Cooperation co-exist (Mirumachi, 2007)
WATER ALLOCATION
AND DISTRIBUTION
Assymetries
Introduction Power relations
Hegemony & Counter-
Hegemony
Power & Cooperation
Nile Cooperation
NBI & Investment
NBI & Legal
Cooperation and Hegemony
Hegemony/Counter
HYDRO-HEGEMONY& HYDRO-COUNTER-HEGEMONY
HEGEMONY Attainment,
maintenance and consolidation of the
status quo
COUNTER-HEGEMONY/RESISTANCE Confrontation
and/or opposition to existing status quo and its legitimacy
Cascão, 2006
Introduction Power relations
Hegemony & Counter-
Hegemony
Power & Cooperation
Nile Cooperation
NBI & Investment
NBI & Legal
Cooperation and Hegemony
POWER AND COOPERATION
• Coercive Power • Bargaining Power• Ideational Power
Assymetries
Mirumachi, 2007
Introduction Power relations
Hegemony & Counter-
Hegemony
Power & Cooperation
Nile Cooperation
NBI & Investment
NBI & Legal
Cooperation and Hegemony
Hegemony/Counter
Introduction Power relations
Hegemony & Counter-
Hegemony
Power & Cooperation
Nile Cooperation
NBI & Investment
NBI & Legal
Cooperation and Hegemony
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1944 19451946 19471948 19491950 19511952 19531954 19551956 19571958 1959 19601961 19621963 19641965 19661967 19681969 19701971 19721973 1974 19751976 19771978 19791980 19811982 19831984 19851986 19871988 1989 19901991 19921993 19941995 19961997 19981999 20002001 20022003 2004
Bar Scale
Egypt/Ethiopia
Ethiopia/Sudan
Nile Basin
Egypt/Sudan
Nile
-SEC
NBI
Nile
-TAC
1959 Agr.
Funding
Technical Issues
Resource Capture
Legal Agreements
CONFLICT AND COOPERATION ON THE NILE
Cascão, 2004
What about Power Relations?
Introduction Power relations
Hegemony & Counter-
Hegemony
Power & Cooperation
Nile Cooperation
NBI & Investment
NBI & Legal
Cooperation and Hegemony
NILE COOPERATION TIMELINE
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
STATUS QUO...
1959Agreement
1967Hydromet
1983Undugu
1992TeccoNile
1999NBI
2007Cooperative Framework Agreement
Risk-averting
Cooperation
Ad-Hoc/Technical
cooperation
Risk-taking
Cooperation?
Coercive & Bargaining Powers Bargaining & Ideational Power
Assymetric Power Relations
Bilateral Cooperation Multilateral cooperation
Introduction Power relations
Hegemony & Counter-
Hegemony
Power & Cooperation
Nile Cooperation
NBI & Investment
NBI & Legal
Cooperation and Hegemony
NBI & Investment
Source: GTZ, 2007
NBI – in search of a legal status
Bargaining & Ideational Power
Assymetric Power Relations
Nile Basin Initiative
Provisional cooperative arrangement
Nile Basin Commission
Permanent river basin
organisation
Cooperative FrameworkAgreement
Introduction Power relations
Hegemony & Counter-
Hegemony
Power & Cooperation
Nile Cooperation
NBI & Investment
NBI & Legal
Cooperation and Hegemony
Cooperative Framework Agreement(June 2007)
The first multilateral Nile Treaty?Ratification?
Article 14: “(...) Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to significantly affect the water security of any other Nile Basin State."
Egypt/Sudan: “(...) Not to adversely affect the water security and current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin States".
Introduction Power relations
Hegemony & Counter-
Hegemony
Power & Cooperation
Nile Cooperation
NBI & Investment
NBI & Legal
Cooperation and Hegemony
COOPERATION as...
COUNTER-HEGEMONY?• Bargaining power• Creation of “new” knowledge• Reduce expertise gap• Opportunities for investment/infrastructures• Potential for Basin management
or HEGEMONY?• Agenda setting• Time factors• Legal issues• Business-as-usual• State-nation based
Introduction Power relations
Hegemony & Counter-
Hegemony
Power & Cooperation
Nile Cooperation
NBI & Investment
NBI & Legal
Cooperation and Hegemony
Thank you!
Introduction Power relations
Hegemony & Counter-
Hegemony
Power & Cooperation
Nile Cooperation
NBI & Investment
NBI & Legal
Cooperation and Hegemony
