Building an evidence base (almost) from scratch: what to do when you don't have a model available - a case study in cycling

Building an evidence base (almost) from scratch:

what to do when you don't have a model available

Leeds University seminar

21st November 2013

TfL Planning

Introduction – who am I?

• Policy Analysis Manager in Transport

for London’s Group Planning

department.

• Manage a small team responsible for

analysing the impact of emerging

policies, specialising in travel

behaviour change.

• Particularly specialise in looking at

cross-cutting policy interventions and

‘minor’ or unusual modes, such as

cycling.

• See our publications at:

www.tfl.gov.uk/travelinlondon

2

http://www.tfl.gov.uk/travelinlondon

TfL Planning

The Mayor’s vision for cycling is that 5% of all journeys will

be made by bike in 2026, around 400% more than in 2001

3

“I’m determined to turn London into a cyclised city – a civilised city

where people can ride their bikes safely and easily in a pleasant

environment ... Put simply, it’s the best way to get around our city.”

Boris Johnson, Cycling Revolution London 2010

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Projected cycle

stages

Actual cycle stages

2011: on track

to meet target,

570k cycle

journeys

2026 Target:

1.5 million

cycle journeys

2001 Baseline:

320k cycle

journeys

A comparison of growth in cycling to date and an estimated growth trajectory to meet the

Mayor’s target in 2026.

TfL Planning

TfL has a suite of strategic transport models available

to inform transport policy development

4

LTS

London-wide forecasts of

transport demand by mode

Highway Assignment

Models

Five sub-regional traffic

models – congestion,

speeds

Railplan

Public transport mode

choice & assignment -

crowding

TfL Planning

So – what do we need to know in order to deliver the

Mayor’s Vision for cycling?

1. What is the potential for growth in cycle travel in London?

2. How effective are different interventions at delivering growth in cycling?

3. What would be the wider impact of growth in cycle travel on travel by

other modes, and on aspects of life in London?

5

Creative use of

secondary data

Collecting primary

SP and RP data

Developing bespoke

spreadsheet models

TfL Planning

Contents

6

Understanding the potential for growth in cycling

Analysis of cycling potential

Cycle market segmentation

Exploring the effectiveness of different interventions

Stated intention and stated preference surveys

Monitoring revealed preferences

Developing bespoke modelling tools

Conclusion and questions

TfL Planning

4.3m trips per day are potentially cyclable, 23% of trips

by all modes and 35% of trips by motorised modes

7

Analysis based on the London Travel Demand Survey (2005-8), identifies trips currently made by

motorised modes which could potentially be cycled, based on the characteristics of the person and trip

Trips were excluded as not

potentially cyclable based on:

• Carrying heavy or bulky load

• Trip length is more than 8km

• Would take at least 20% more

time by bicycle

• Person aged under 5 or over 64

• Trip made overnight (between

8pm and 6am)

• Person has a disability affecting

their travel

• Trip made by van, dial-a-ride,

plane or boat

IMPORTANT NOTE:

There is much we don’t know

about the trips and people

making them – some could

not, in fact, be cycled, whilst

some of those trips excluded

could be cycled.

TfL Planning

Analysis can inform policy making and help target resources

by describing the nature of potentially cyclable trips…

8

• Two thirds of potentially cyclable trips are currently

made by car

• 40% of potentially cyclable trips are made for shopping

and leisure purposes and a quarter for work

• 8 in ten potentially cyclable trips are under 5km and

would take less than 20 minutes for most people to

cycle

Potentially cyclable trips...

...by trip distance

...by journey

purpose

... by current

mode

TfL Planning

... and identifying where potentially cyclable trips are

being made

9

55% of trips are highly

dispersed across outer

London – suggesting

that measures that

can reach a wide

audience will deliver

best value for money

23% of trips

originated in the 48

International,

Metropolitan and

Major town centres

– investment in

infrastructure can

be effective here

Note that sample sizes will be very small for each

‘square’ so this map should be understood

thematically rather than analysed in close detail.

Potentially cyclable trips by trip origin

Spotlight on Croydon:

119,000 potentially cyclable

trips per day

70% currently made by car

Significant population and

employment growth planned

TfL Planning

Contents

10









TfL Planning

Cycle Market Segmentation shows the propensity of Londoners

to cycle now & how amenable they are to cycling in future

11

Segment Description % LondonersPropensity to

cycle

Urban livingYoung, well educated, reasonably well-off and usually live in

town/city centre. Many choose to live without a car.23% 140

Young couples

and families

Young, with relatively low car ownership and young children.

Often tight finances, ethnic background may present a barrier

to cycling.

15% 113

High earning

professional

Well educated, affluent, often working in multinationals.

Tend to use personal rather than public transport.11% 106

Suburban

lifestyle

Average income, heavily reliant on car and living in suburbia.

Cycling for leisure is as likely as cycling for purpose.17% 102

Hard pressed

families

Difficult family finances, and often living in inner city flats and

tower blocks. Ethnic background may present a barrier to

cycling.

21% 85

Manual tradesMainly white with high car ownership, this segment is unlikely

to cycle with generally negative attitudes towards cycling. 5% 42

Comfortable

maturity

Older and retired people, reasonably well off, living in

suburban areas - some potential for off-road leisure cycling.8% 30 Least

likely

Most

likely

TfL Planning

The Market Segmentation shows us where those with

the greatest propensity to cycle live (red is high)

12

For areas without a high

concentration of

potentially cyclable

trips, analysis of where

potentially cyclable trip

makers with a high or

moderate propensity to

cycle live, work and

study would help target

interventions

Propensity to cycle by home postcode

Note: White zones are not residential so are not coded eg: parks, industrial locations

TfL Planning

Combined with the analysis of cycling potential, we can

identify the trips made by those most amenable to cycling

13

68% of potentially cyclable trips are made by people in the ‘Urban living’, ‘High-earning professionals’, ‘Young

families and couples’ and ‘Suburban lifestyle’ segments – shown here by trip origin. They offer the best potential

for cycling.

Pockets in outer

London –

particularly in

Ealing, Stratford

and in many parts

of South London

High density in

central London –

especially K&C,

Westminster, H&F

and Camden

Note that sample sizes will be very small for

each ‘square’ so this map should be

understood thematically rather than

analysed in close detail.

TfL Planning

Cycling potential can be assessed for each segment: the

Urban Living segment are the prime target for cycling

14

900,000

trips

Young

Well educated

Don’t have a carOwn bikes

Live in city & town centres

Travel more than average

Positive about

cycling

3 in 10 potentially cyclable trips

are for work purposes

24% potentially cyclable trips are

to, from or within central London

33% potentially cyclable trips made

by bus & 17% by tube or rail

Typically travelling on busy radial routes in peak periods, so

potential crowding benefit, freeing up space for other users

TfL Planning

Contents

15









TfL Planning

Survey contents included:

• Current travel behaviour patterns

• Stated intentions in terms of future cycling

behaviour

• Three stated preference exercises testing

likelihood of cycling a selected trip and testing

preferred cycling environment

• Attitudes to cycling and cyclists

• Demographics

Cycling behaviour survey conducted to explore current and

potential cycling behaviour and responses to interventions

16

Cycling Behaviour Survey: quantitative survey conducted online in 2010 with

London residents aged 18+; around 3,500 responses .

TfL Planning

Londoners cycle for fitness, enjoyment, and to save money;

conversely, safety and fear are the biggest barriers to cycling

17

Why cycle?

Cyclists were asked why they cycle:

• Fitness and exercise – 53%

• For enjoyment, fun, to relax – 28%

• To save money – 23%

• To save time, it’s quick – 11%

• Convenience – 9%

• To get where I need to go – 7%

• For environment reasons – 7%

Why not cycle?

All were asked why not cycle (more):

• Safety, danger – 22%

• Personal reasons (eg: health or

fitness) – 14%

• Traffic, other road users – 10%

• Do not own a bike – 8%

• Weather – 6%

• Lack of facilities – 6%

• Can’t ride a bike – 5%

TfL Planning

All respondents were asked to select a regular trip they

do not currently cycle – 18% would cycle this trip

18

A From home...

By car or public transport

Around 20 minutes long

B To a

destination

Respondents were asked to select a trip they make regularly. Selected trips were

designed to be ‘potentially cyclable’, although the respondent themselves did not

necessarily say that they could be cycled. Selected trips were:

... And of these, 18% of respondents could definitely and 24% could possibly

imagine a situation where they might cycle all the way for this journey; 58% would

not cycle

TfL Planning

The most significant barrier to cycling the selected trip is

safety, with over ¾ of respondents deterred to some extent

19

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Difficult with children

Poor health/disability/illness

Don't know route

No/poor cycle parking at home

Don't like cycling

No showers/facilities at destination

Expense of bike/equipment

Physical fitness

Too physical/hard work

No/poor cycle parking at destination

Personal safety from attack

Need to wear smart clothes to my destination

Don't own a bike

Security of bike at destination

Makes me messy/dirty/messes up my hair

Distance too far

Time it takes

Need to carry items

Safety

Completely discourages me Discourages me to some extent Not an issue for me

47%

44%

44%

38%

36%

28%

30%

32%

50%

49%

56%

54%

54%

53%

51%

69%

59%

57%

77%

Discourages at all

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Difficult with children

Poor health/disability/illness

Don't know route

No/poor cycle parking at home

Don't like cycling

No showers/facilities at destination

Expense of bike/equipment

Physical fitness

Too physical/hard work

No/poor cycle parking at destination

Personal safety from attack

Need to wear smart clothes to my destination

Don't own a bike

Security of bike at destination

Makes me messy/dirty/messes up my hair

Distance too far

Time it takes

Need to carry items

Safety

Completely discourages me Discourages me to some extent Not an issue for me

47%

44%

44%

38%

36%

28%

30%

32%

50%

49%

56%

54%

54%

53%

51%

69%

59%

57%

77%

Discourages at all1. Safety

2. Carrying items

3. Time it takes

4. Distance

5. Get messy

A

B

TfL Planning

Routes: Safety is important to every cyclist, but different

groups prefer different types of route & infrastructure

20

When choosing a route, the key considerations for cyclists are the safety of that

route and being able to avoid traffic and difficult junctions

Cyclists were prepared to travel further to cycle in cycle lanes, bus lanes, on

residential roads and in particular would travel 3 times further to cycle off-road

More confident cyclists and those who cycle most frequently tend to opt for the

most direct route

But cyclists will make significant detours to avoid junctions perceived to be

dangerous

Cycle Route Choice Survey: qualitative and quantitative survey conducted in 2012 with London

cyclists. 2,307 respondents to quantitative Stated Preference/Intention survey, 25% response rate.

Key Findings

TfL Planning

Contents

21









TfL Planning

Monitoring new schemes will provide evidence of what

actually works...

22

Barclays Cycle Hire

• Increasing the amount of cycling travel in London. 95 per cent

of journeys were previously made by another mode or not at

all.

• Many users are new to cycling in London; in total, 7 in 10 said

that the scheme had prompted them to start cycling in the

city or to cycle more often. Just over 1 in 8 said that using the

scheme had encouraged them to use their own bike more.

• Scheme users say they were benefiting from it – as well as

agreeing the scheme provided a quick and convenient mode

of travel, the majority of users were enjoying using the hire

bicycles and were seeing benefits to their health and fitness.

TfL Planning

... And can be used to verify assumptions arising from

stated preference and stated intention surveys.

23

Barclays Cycle Superhighways

• Delivering increased cycle flows and encouraging existing

cyclists to increase the amount they cycle. Also encouraging

use for journeys previously made by other modes and new

cycle journeys.

• Offering a fast, direct route into central London, the routes

are mainly appealing to commuters.

• Aspects of the routes that appeal most to users are the

visibility of the blue markings, good quality of the road

surface, and that they provide a direct route to key

destinations.

• Cyclists agreed that they were benefiting from an improved

journey experience as a result of the introduction of the

routes.

TfL Planning

Contents

24









TfL Planning

TfL Planning are currently working on a Cycling Policy

Evaluation Tool, bringing together this evidence

25

TfL Planning

Contents

26









TfL Planning

Conclusions

• Through creative use of secondary data and targeted data collection to

plus knowledge gaps, you can create evidence based policy without the

aid of transport models.

• Combining analysis of trips and people gives a realistic ‘potential market’;

combined with evidence about barriers, attractors and the impact of

interventions, this can provide transport planners with the evidence about

what will work where.

• As the evidence base grows, bespoke spreadsheet models make this

process easier.

• Investing in monitoring provides a ‘sense check’ for assumptions made

based on stated preference and intention data.

• Ultimately, as the evidence base and modal importance grows, we aim to

‘mainstream’ cycling in the way we carry out analysis by building it into

the strategic models.

27

TfL Planning

Questions?

www.tfl.gov.uk

Clare Sheffield, Policy Analysis Manager

Planning, Transport for London

[email protected]

28

mailto:[email protected]

TfL Planning

Growth in cycling won’t happen without considerable effort,

but the potential is there to deliver the growth required

29

Frequent cyclists already make the majority of cycle trips in London, but there remains some potential

for growth, particularly for the journey to work

There remains significant potential to increase cycle trip making amongst existing infrequent cyclists –

safety, traffic and lack of facilities are the greatest barriers to this

Cycling remains a minority activity – there are many people who are ‘just like’ cyclists but do not

currently cycle, offering excellent potential for growth in cycle travel

Non-cyclists can be encouraged to cycle through measures designed to encourage leisure travel bringing

long term transport benefits and short term benefits to health & community

Frequent

cyclists

Infrequent

cyclists

‘Just like a

cyclist’

Others: Cycle for

fun

Only 2% of London residents cycle to work but they make for around half of all London’s cycle trips

When asked about a trip that could be cycled 60% of infrequent cyclists said that they would possibly cycle it

Two thirds of those in the group most likely to cycle don’t even own a bike

7 in 10 non-cyclists would consider cycling for leisure, compared to no more than 4 in 10 for any other trip type

TfL Planning

Underlying the successes has been intelligent use of the data

we have and targeted research to fill the knowledge gaps

30

Cycles make up a quarter of traffic in central London in the morning peak - there is the potential to

achieve a mode share in the centre of the Capital to challenge that of other major European cycling cities

Beyond the centre, the potential is concentrated in pockets in inner London & around outer London

metropolitan town centres – boroughs here could deliver radical change

Regions expecting significant growth in population and employment have the opportunity to ‘design in’ a

high cycle mode share through innovative transport and land use policies

Huge potential exists in highly dispersed trips across outer London, demonstrating the continued need

to maintain investment in interventions able to reach all Londoners

Central London

Urban

destinations

Growth areas

Outer London

The average cycling speed is 15km, faster than average peak hour road speeds in central London

One in fourteen potentially cyclable trips start or end in the 11 outer London metropolitan town centres

Projected growth of around 1.7 million new people in London by 2031 – a 21% increase from 2011

If just 1 in 10 potential trips dispersed across outer London is cycled – delivers 50% growth on current levels

Education

Building an evidence base (almost) from scratch: what to do when you don't have a model available - a case study in cycling