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Here is Vala's presentation that she gave to the Converge Project's 1st Food Sector Modelling Workshop in Bristol UK on November 2nd 2011. More on this project can be found at www.convergeproject.org
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Rethinking globalisation in the light of Contraction and CONVERGEnce
Vala Ragnarsdottir
Dean of Engineering and Natural Sciences
University of Iceland
www.convergeproject.org
The CONVERGE team here today• From the University of Iceland – in addition to me
– Sigrún María Kristinsdóttir– Charlotte Jónsdóttir Biering
• From the University of Lund, Sweden– Harald Sverdrup– Deniz Koca
• From the Schumacher Institute, Bristol– Ian Roderick– Alice Marie Archer– Emmelie Brownlee– Julia
Converge: Progress towards equity within the Earth’s biophysical
boundaries
The aim of the CONVERGE project
• Develop the idea of CONVERGE with societal, economic and ecological perspectives in connection to globalisation
• Test CONVERGE as a framework for holistic indicators
• Evaluate whether national, EU and international policies and agreements are opposite or support convergence processes and test the CONVERGE framework with communities and stakeholders
Aims cont.
• Evaluate how different methods of community engagement can work towards the development of sustainable communities in the North and South, and test the CONVERGE framework with stakeholders
• Find convergence methodologies from case studies
• Use interdisciplinary methodologies to evaluate outcomes, and develop new understanding in a crossdisciplinary framework
Aims cont.
• Recommend how CONVERGE can fit into the inner and outer policies of the EU
• Distribute CONVERGE to different users through a variety of media
Focus on food
• Communities tested– Iceland (an island – 320,000 people)– Bristol city (400,000 people)– Villages in Tamil Nadu (SCAD)
– Communities where framework presented• Lund, Sweden• Gödöllö, Hungary
Stakeholder workshops
• 3 workshops with systems analysis inbetween
• One meeting where framework presented
• Systems dynamics model given to participants
Methodology to develop the CONVERGE framework:
systems thinking
• The Natural Step• The ISIS compass• Systems analysis
– Systems dynamics
• Stakeholder workshops
How do we use the Earh´s resources and an equitable manner?
Sverdrup et al.
Ecological footprint
The Earth is shrinking
19007.91
19505.15
19872.60
20052.02
20301.69
20501.44
YEARHectar of surface per person
Ecological footprint = the land we need to provide daily needs and take up the waste. Now we are using 1.5 Earths per year.
Earth boundaries – we have surpassed 3 of 9
Ocean acidification
Ozon in stratosphere
Rockström et al. 2009
Cycling of N
Cycling of P
Water useLand use change
Biodiversity loss
Atmosphericareosols
Pollution
Climate change
Growth 1750-2000
Polulation GDP Dams Wateruse
Urbanpopulation
Paperuse
Cartransport
Telephones
Tourists
McDonalds
7 billion people
Perpetual growth?
Sverdrup og Ragnarsdottir 2011
Peak energy
Coal 2015Oil 2005
Global energy 2020
ASPO
Hubberts ,,peak” curves
for 12 key metals
Sverdrup Ragnarsdottir Koca 2011
Gold 2000 Silver 2030 Copper 2040
Zinc 2030 Lead 2020 Indium 2050
Iron 2030 Molybdenum 2050
Chromium 2050
Nickel 2050 Platinum 2030
Phosphate 2000
Peak fish Peak phosphate…
Fishing Phosphate
2000Sverdrup og Ragnarsdottir 2011
From cradle to grave – to cradle to cradle
Biomimickry
Other important problems
• Financial systems that don´t understand natural limits
• Greed• Corruption
Human needs
Subsis-tence
IdlenessPartici-pation
Protection AffectionUnder-
standing
Creation Identity Freedom
Manfred Max-Neef et al
Cycles of nature
Slow geological cycles (volcano eruptions and weathering)
Slow geological cycles (sedimentation and mineralization)
Closed system with respect to matter1) Nothing disappears2) Everything disperses
Open system with respect to energy
« Photosynthesis pays the bill »
Sustainability is about the ability of human society
to continue indefinitely within
these natural cycles
How we influence cycles
Large flows of materials from the Earth’s crust
Introduce persistent compounds foreign to nature
Physically inhibit nature’s ability to run cycles
Barriers to people meeting
their basic needs worldwide
TNS system conditions: In a sustainable society
...the systematic increase in concentrations of substances from the Earth’s crust,
...the systematic increase in concentrations of substances produced by society,
...the systematic increase of physical degradation and destructions of natural systems,
...to conditions that systematically undermine people’s capacity to meet their needs.
We’ve eliminated our contribution to…
From vision to action plans
Baseline
Creative Solutions
Prioritisation
Future
Think out of the box
,,We cannot solve problems by using the same way of thinking as we had when we created them”
Albert Einstein
Sustainability is...
A set of conditions and trends
in a given system that can
continue indefinitely
AtKisson 2008
Sustainable development is...
A directed process of
continuous innovation and
systemic change
in the direction of sustainability
AtKisson 2008
• N =NatureEnvironment, resources, ecosystems, climate, cultivation
• A = EconomyProduction, consumption, employment, energy, fertiliser
• S = SocietyGovernment, culture, institutions, schools, common issues, education for sustainability, nature protection in constitution, voters
• V = Well beingIndividual health, families, education level, quality of life, happiness, healthy food
Nature
Economy
Society
Well being
Sustainablity compass– indicators
AtKisson 2008
Steps towards sustainability• Think long term• Understand systems• Know limits• Protect nature• Change commerce• Show equity• Support innovation
(AtKisson 2008)
Systems thinker
• Looks for the big picture• Looks for the cycle that links cause and effect• Sees how things change with time• Looks for new angles• Evaluates the effect of short term and long term
actions• Finds unexpected afleiðingar
AtKisson 2008
Soil + rock + oil = people
Ragnarsdottir og Sverdrup 2010
Closing the nutrient cycles
Ragnarsdottir og Sverdrup 2010
Organic farming – Vallanes NE Iceland
Agroforestry
How much food can we produce in cities?
Vision of Herbert Girardet
Cuba – city cultivation
• Cuba went through
“peak oil” 20 years ago
- Learned Permaculture– Up to 90% of vegetables
cultivated in cities and towns
– Car parks, gardens, roofs, pateos, balconies
– Peoples health has improved
– Communities have strengthened
Your brainstorming now
• An huge eruption has lasted for 3 months in Iceland.
• All flights in the northern hemisphere are off.• Oil is expensive and few ships arrive with food;
few trucks distribute food to supermarkets. • The city of Bristol and nearby counties have a
joint emergency meeting and decide that all food needs be produced in Bristol and its bioregion.
• The question is how?
Spaceship Bristol-bioregion
1. Imagine sustainable Bristol1. How does it look like?
2. Where are we now? (baseline) – remember that the baseline today is not the same as after a 3 month eruption in Iceland
3. Then find steps from the future to the present (connect step 1 to step 2)
Coffee break
Dig for victory
Remember how the gardens were changed from flower beds to
vegetable patches during the war!
Talk to your mothers/grandmothers!
Conventional fertilizer
• N:P:K in different proportions
• When phosphate mines empty and energy is limited – what fertiliser will we use?
A few suggestions
• Close all cycles
• Waste from one process used as resource for another
• Societal equity is prevalent
• Convergence for sustainability is the progress towards human equity within biological planetary boundaries.
• In a converging society, every global citizen has the right to a fair share of the Earth’s bio-capacity and the opportunity for secured human wellbeing.
• In a converging society, people have the opportunity to meet their basic human needs.
• In a converging society, nature is systematically cared for, maintained and restored.
• A converging society is aware of the fact that everything humans have and use comes from nature. In a converging society, nature’s resource inflow to society is recognized and the focus is on using resources in the least harmful way possible.
• A converging society deals with its outflow (waste), using the four R’s as a guideline – reduce, recycle, refuse and reuse. It is a circular society (as opposed to a throw-away society) that has learned from nature.
CONVERGE principles
Principles cont
• A converging society is aware of the fact that everything humans have and use comes from nature.
• In a converging society, nature’s resource inflow to society is recognized and the focus is on using resources in the least harmful way possible.
Principles cont.
• A converging society deals with its outflow (waste), using the four R’s as a guideline – reduce, recycle, refuse and reuse. It is a circular society (as opposed to a throw-away society) that has learned from nature.
Harald and Deniz take over