“BASKET-CASE” TO MIRACLE ?

Bangladesh

1971-2021

Disasters make headlines

TOPICS

Setting: Geography, climate, history

Statistical snapshot, 1971: “basket-case”!

1. Agriculture: Feeding more people better

2. Diseases: Conquering cholera

3. Social policy: Empowering women

4. Social marketing: Family planning & health

5. Economic growth: textiles & tragedies

Statistical snapshot, 2012: miracle coming ??

Bangladesh in Asia - today

Historic links: Silk Routes

East Bengal in South Asia, 1947-71

Bangladesh, 1971-today

Riverscape

Interstate with 18-wheelers, Bengali-style

Thatched village house

Bullock-powered plowing

Sargent Shriver explains Peace Corps at Comilla Academy, 1961

1st Volunteers fly to mainland Asia,October 1961

Statistical snapshot, 1971

Population: country ~60 m

density >400/sq km

annual rate 2.6%

Foodgrain production <10 mmt

Births & deaths/1,000 47 & 21

Fertility rate/woman 6.9

GDP: total ~ $9 b

Growth rate 2%

“basket case” - Henry Kissinger, Nat'l Security Adviser

“Basket case”: population

“Basket case”: rural urban migration→

Monsoon: blessing and curse

1. Agriculture: Feeding more people better

More water for crops:

- Nature: monsoon 1 harvest/year→- Irrigation: 2 or 3 harvests/year

Better seeds for higher rice yields

Fertilizers & pesticides for larger harvests

Increasing agricultural inputs

Dry fields awaiting water

Irrigation: traditional

Managing water by building rural public works – 1962

Villager-built bridge & flood control

Irrigation: by shallow tube-wells

Irrigation: by deep tube-well pumps

High-yield rice

Importing fertilizers & pesticides

2. Diseases: conquering cholera

Bengal the epicenter of several pandemics killed →millions in Asia, Europe, & Americas.

Cholera (Greek = diarrhea) causes huge fluid loss with critical electrolytes, kills within hours.

Cholera Research Lab (est'd 1960) scientists →Oral Re-hydration Saline (ORS) therapy.

NGOs distributed ORS & educated households nationwide, reducing fatalities dramatically.

Standard therapy worldwide: saved 40M people →enormous benefits for women and families!

Cholera Research Lab hospital

Cholera Lab field worker

Making oral re-hydration saline (ORS) solution

3. Empowering women: A. Comilla Academy, 1962-

Women planning a project

Empowering women: B. Grameen Bank, 1974-

Famine inspired research: Could poor repay small loans without collateral & avoid debt trap?

Founder Mohammed Yunus, Ph.D. economist, trained at Vanderbuilt University, Tennessee

Gram (Hindi & Bengali) = village, rural (English)

Create banks & self-employment for very poor

Peer groups build confidence, ensure repayment

Goal: bypass money-lenders; escape poverty trap; change “vicious circle” “virtuous circle” →

Traditional banks

Goal: profits for banks

Locations: cities

Borrowers: wealthy men

Security: collateral, individual,

what he already owns

Customers go to bank

Payment terms: strict

Loans for consumption

Traditional banks vs. Grameen Bank

Goal: profits for banks Change for the poor

Locations: cities Rural

Serve wealthy literate men Poor illiterate women

Security: collateral, person, Trust, peer group,

what he already owns what she will produce

Borrowers go to bank Bank borrowers→Payment terms: strict Flexible

Loans for consumption Only for production

Grameen banker disbursing loans

Dr. Yunus joined Returned Peace Corps-Bangladesh Volunteers, 1986

Grameen Bank today

Early donors offered cheap capital, research, eval.

Borrowers 98% women! repayment excellent!!

Borrowers are also owners: 94% of Bank shares

Chartered by BD Central Bank, floats own bonds

Grameen enterprises create employment, income

50 M borrowers lifted out of extreme poverty

Spread nation-wide & abroad (40+ countries)

Grameen Phone story

Nobel Peace Prize to Dr. Yunus and Grameen Bank, 2006

Empowering women: C. BRAC, 1972-

Building a learning organization

Training and Research Centers:

- Research & evaluate: learn from mistakes

- Develop skilled staff & volunteers

1979: distribute ORS packets to every household

Early donors funded 100% → now only 26%, due to enterprises: seed, dairy, cold storage, ++

Teachers & volunteers: 127,000, 98% women !!

World's largest NGO development organization

BRAC primary teacher

BRAC's story amazing

Queen Elizabeth knights Abed

4. Social marketing: promoting family planning & health

US concept: use commercial tools for social good:

public health (smoking), safety (seat-belts)

US AID $$ 1974 test → project, Ministry of Health

Advertising to establish brands: condoms, pills, maternal & child health products

Warehouses & sales teams distribute nation-wide

1990 – changed to Social Marketing Company

Research & evaluation now largest co. of its kind→

Advertising “Raja” condoms

Advertising “Maya” pills

Distributing ORSaline (ORS) packets nation-wide

Village health teacher

Family planning education

5. Economic growth: textiles & tragedies

Prized muslin killed by English machine looms

British favored Calcutta Bengal agric. →hinterland

Jute key export until replaced by synthetics 1980s

Ready Made Garments: fueled by cheap, rural, plentiful women, & US-UK-EU mega-buyers

Helped 40 yrs by World Trade & US policies

By 2013, 5,000 factories (sweatshops due severe competition, weak regulation, corruption)

Garment factory today

Rana Plaza factory collapse

Not the 1st time: Triangle Shirtwaist Co. fire

Sweatshop economics & politics

Triangle fire 60 laws, ILGWU, Safety Engineers, →New Deal labor laws (Frances Perkins & FDR)

Sweatshops exist in garments, transport, toys, foods, construction, +, due to global competition

Labor unions, gov't regulation: weak/non-existent

Consumers: ignorant, uncaring, unorganized

Some efforts now: ILO, NGOs, industry assocs., a few firms. Might int'l OSHA standards emerge?

Will Bangladesh business & pol. leaders reform ??

Sample consumer-based action:Oxfam's food justice campaign

Statistical snapshots, 1971 & 2012

Population: country ~60 m 150 m

density >400/sq km 1,033/sq km

annual rate 2.6% 1.2%

Foodgrain production <10 mmt ~35 mmt

Births & deaths/1,000 47 & 21 21 & 6

Fertility rate/woman 6.9 2.4

GDP: total ~ $9 b $79.6 b

Growth rate 2% 6.7%

“basket case” miracle coming?

Middle-income miracle by 2021 ??

Climbing to middle-income rank possible (World Bank & other economists) . . .

But not guaranteed: – Ready Made Garment industry declines ? – Political paralysis cramps economic growth ?– Islamist reactionaries re-imprison women? – Natural disasters ? – Sea level rise devastating?→

Final thoughts

Reductions in child and maternal mortality compare to those when Japan modernized during Meiji transition in late-19th century

– Economist, Nov. 2012

“ . . . when you create the right conditions, poor people will do the hard work of defeating poverty themselves.”

– BRAC's Sir F.H. Abed

Resources for learning & acting

1-page list of book titles and websites available

Robert C. Terry

E-mail: rcterry@post.harvard.edu

Cellphone: 508-237-7574

Website: www.rcterry.com