Backcasting“or how I learned to stop predicting and help my clients“

IA Summit 2007Las Vegas

Matthew Milan

Critical Mass

Sam Ladner

York University

On Turbulent Environments

Backcasting Background

Backcasting as Information Architecture

Is That a Discovery Process in Your Pocket?

Session Overview

Turbulent Environments

“Take me to the river…“

Turbulent Environments

Strategy is Turbulent

How do you navigate a turbulent environment?

Every River Needs a Guide

You are your client’s guide

Backcasting is a Navigational Tool

It helps you to create plans for changing environments

There’s more then one path

But you don’t always know the right path beforehand

Scouting Ahead

Not “how DO we get here”, but “how DID we get here”

Backcasting Background

“A recipe for people who hate to predict“

1950s ► ProtoBackcasting ► AT&T

1970s ► MultiScenario Planning ► Shell

1990s ► Big Backcasting ► Robinson & SDRI

2000s ► Agile Backcasting?

Casting Back

Complex Undertaking

Resource Intensive

Time Consuming

Inaccessible to Non-Experts

Problems with Big Backcasting

Why do backcasting?

Good strategy lets you see the entire landscape

Simplify the Process

Lightweight

Quick and Agile

Accessible & Engaging

Better Backcasting?

► Participatory Modeling

► Sorting & Grouping

► 3 to 6 hours

► Facilitation Framework

Backcasting as Information Architecture

“The Strategic Design of Shared Information Environments“

Where’s the IA?

Information Architecture as visual organization and modeling

Information Architecture as a thinking framework

Information Architecture as structuring information environments through time

The Elements of Backcasting

Set timeline

Baseline current state

Define future states

Identify indicators

Assess risks and create action plan

The Backcasting Map

Backcasting in five easy steps

Set the timeframe

tnow tfuture

The Backcasting Map Baseline the current state

The Backcasting Map Define Possible Future States

Hot Rod

Minivan

Little Deuce Coupe

The Backcasting Map Work Backwards and Identify Indicators

Hot Rod

Minivan

Little Deuce Coupe

The Backcasting Map Assess Risks, Opportunities and Actions

Hot Rod

Minivan

Little Deuce Coupe

A Discovery Process in Your

Pocket“Stop Predicting and Start Helping“

What do you need?

Visual Language – The “Map”

Facilitation Skills

The Ability to Translate Concepts Into Indicators

What makes a good guide?

Don’t tell you what to do

Keep you safe

Intentionally simplify complex situations

Leave the choices to the journeyer

Case Study: OmniBank

Fortune 500 Financial Services Firm

Multi-Stage Redesign

Multiple Stakeholders

No Clear Strategy

Client Desire to Learn Adaptability

Mapping OmniBank Strategy

Focus on the map, not political agendas

Capture Everything

…including insights about your clients

Elicit Problems and Solutions

Ask hard questions and you’ll get solutions

Deep Dive on Indicators

Robust indicators of success mean robust success

Identify Immediate Actions

30, 60 and 90-day action plans move projects forward

Take Me To The River