Aquaculture Futures:Supply and demand trends

Aquaculture Discovery Day, Global Forum for Innovations in Agriculture (GFIA), Abu Dhabi, 9-11 March 2015

Michael Phillips

Wealth and population growth are major drivers for animal-source food consumption, including fish

Fish is essential for food and nutrition security

Fish is essential for food and nutrition security

Percentages of animal-based protein consumed in 2009

(100% = 31 g / capita / day)

Fish is most important in Africa and Asia

Wild fish stocks have peakedMillion tons

Note: “Wild catch” includes finfish, mollusks, crustaceans, and other aquatic animals from marine and freshwater ecosystems. It excludes all aquaculture. Source: WRI/FAO (2014).

Aquaculture has emerged to meet fish demandMillion tons

Sources: WRI (2014) FAO (2012a), FAO (2012b), FAO (2013), FAO (2014).

Aquaculture is diverse Production (2012), 100% = 66.6 million tons

Source: WRI (2014)

Nearly 90 percent of aquaculture production is in AsiaTons (2012)

Aquaculture production must more than double by 2050 to satisfy projected fish demandMillion tons

Sources: Production data 1961–2010: FAO (2014a), FAO (2014b). Aquaculture production projections 2011–2050: Authors’ calculations assuming a linear growth rate of 2 Mt per year.

Aquaculture growth to 140 Mt by 2050 could contribute to economic development

Source: Authors’ calculations based on FAO (2014) and World Bank, FAO, and IFPRI (2013).

$308BFarm gate value / year

176MLivehoods

Aquaculture projections by 2030

• Middle East and Africa – 1.1 to 1.9 mt• Africa - 0.30 to 0.46 mt

Source: World Bank (2014)

Growth in demand and need

Aquaculture converts feed to food efficientlyPercent or “units of edible output per 100 units of feed input”

Sources: Terrestrial animal products: Wirsenius et al. (2010), Wirsenius (2000). Finfish and shrimp: WRI (2014) analysis, based on USDA (2013), NRC (2011), Tacon and Metian (2008), Wirsenius (2000), and FAO (1989).

Note: “Edible output” refers to the calorie and protein content of bone-free carcass.

“Blue Frontiers” interventions for sustainable growth of aquaculture

• Innovation• Regulations and policy• Technologies and management• Monitoring and compliance• Consumers, markets.

+ Investment

Innovations: sustainable intensification and growth of aquaculture

• Land, water and energy• GHG emissions • Seed quality and genetics• Feeds and feeding• Fish diseases• Environmental impacts

• Knowledge sharing and technology delivery

• SME investment models

Regulations and policy

• Regulatory and public policy for sustainable investment and growth

• Self regulation and private standards

Consumers: the potential of fish

Bangladesh

•20 million people, particularly women and children, suffer from deficiencies of vitamin A, iron, and zinc

•Small indigenous fish in household ponds provide a ready source

•Increasing the productivity of the 4 million ponds by 10 kg of small “Mola” fish provides the daily Vitamin A requirements for 7 million children

Investment: “Blue” investments

• US$50-70 billion in infrastructure needed by 2030

• Investment in SMEs

Outcomes

• Bring research to scale through commercial investment

• Nurture early-stage aquaculture SMEs and prepare them for commercial investment

Impacts

• Successful businesses producing affordable, nutritious food for the poor

• Better livelihoods for those who rely on fisheries & aquaculture

A WorldFish incubator

$20M 200,000

Investment by 2020

Women and men with improved livelihoods by

2020

100,000

Hectares under sustainable practices by

2020

The WorldFish Incubator: Goals

Summary

• Aquaculture needs to grow to meet future fish demand globally

• Investment into aquaculture growth in Africa is critically important

• Fish is a nutrient rich animal source food with low environmental impact

• Provides employment and income in rural and peri-urban communities

• Investment and business opportunities

Thank You