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See STEPS co-director Andy Stirling's presentation - From Precaution to Robustness: in governance of technological vulnerability - prepared as background to discussion at the workshop on The Vulnerability of Technological Cultures: new directions in research and governance, Maastricjt, 1-3 June 2008
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From Precaution to Robustness: in governance of technological vulnerability
Andy Stirling, SPRU
these slides wee prepared from various presentations as background to the discussion at the workshop on The Vulnerability of Technological Cultures:
new directions in research and governance, Maastricjt, 1-3 June 2008
progress
Technology Progress as Social Choice
SCIENCE
TECHNOLOGY
conventional ‘linear’ understandings of
technology change still prevail in
mainstream technology governance
eg:
“… this government's approach is to make
decisions … on the basis of sound science”
- Tony Blair
“[there is] an anti-technology culture in the
UK …a pro-technology culture must be
created…” - Council on Science & Tech
“politicians in power are affected by the anti-
science or anti-technology feelings of
influential intellectuals.” - EU HLG on S&T
time
Technology Progress as Social Choice
PAST
FUTURE
conventional ‘linear’ understandings of
technology change still prevail in
mainstream technology governance
eg:
“history is a race to advance technology”
- Royal Academy of Engineering
„anti-technology protestors‟ are “…
members of the 'flat earth society’,
opposed to modern economics, modern
technology, modern science, modern life
itself.” – UN DDG
space of technological
possibilities
time
Technology Progress as Social Choice
- different disciplines agree over pathway dynamics of technology
(shaping / contingency / momentum / trajectories / lock-in / entrapment)
space of technological
possibilities
time
Technology Progress as Social Choice
- each path displays different forms and distributions of vulnerability
- all are subject to divergent framings and incomplete knowledge
- raises questions over precaution and robustness in pathway choice
space of technological
possibilities
time
Technology Progress as Social Choice
- politics of technology choice underlies many set-piece ‘risk’ debates
eg: centralised thermal power / distributed renewable energy
industrial GM agriculture / low-input, marker-assisted breeding
halogenated hydrocarbons / ‘closed loop’ materials and energy
private urban automobiles / integrated public transportation
IP-driven pharmaceuticals / preventive open-source public health
consumer product-based IT / internet access to service-based IT
space of technological
possibilities
time
Technology Progress as Social Choice
- not all possibilities can be realised (especially in globalised markets)
eg: centralised thermal power / distributed renewable energy
industrial GM agriculture / low-input, marker-assisted breeding
halogenated hydrocarbons / ‘closed loop’ materials and energy
private urban automobiles / integrated public transportation
IP-driven pharmaceuticals / preventive open-source public health
consumer product-based IT / internet access to service-based IT
space of technological
possibilities
time
- technology vulnerabilities doubly-constituted by evolution and closure
Technology Progress as Social Choice
1 intrinsic indeterminacies of technology change cause general vulnerabilities
which typically bear most acutely on the least powerful social groups
2 closure on particular paths reflect incumbent interests and exclude others
compounds disempowerment, disappropriation with specific vulnerabilities
space of technological
possibilities
time
challenges for governance of technological vulnerability
Technology Progress as Social Choice
epistemic: uncertain and contested understandings of complex dynamics
needs precaution in appraisal (knowledge production, learning)
ontological: material intractability to action: technology and nature ‘bite back’
needs resilience and robustness in technology commitments
A Reflective ‘Systems’ View
inchoate array of
physical, social and
technological
entities and
relationships
‘system’
A Reflective ‘Systems’ View
environment
A Reflexive Co-Productionist View
environment
‘system’
FR
AM
ING
S
A Reflexive Co-Productionist View
environment
‘system’
FR
AM
ING
Scontext
A ‘Critical Political’ View
environment
system
context
su
ba
ltern
fra
min
gs
he
ge
mo
nic
fra
min
g
A ‘Critical Political’ View
environment
system
context
su
ba
ltern
fra
min
gs
he
ge
mo
nic
fra
min
g
eg: nuclear power
Precaution against Incertitude
Rio Declaration, Principle 15 (1992):
“In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation”
Ambiguous and contested as a ‘decision rule’ in ‘risk management’:
‘threats’? ‘serious’? ‘irreversible’? ‘certainty’?
proportionality? contending uncertainties?
Greater clarity and convergence as a process of ‘social appraisal’
more broad-based frameworks for understanding contending
technological pathways and associated vulnerabilities
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about outcomes
Contrasting Aspects of Incertitude
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about outcomes
RISK
known pathogens
normal flood / drought
familiar toxins / hazards
Contrasting Aspects of Incertitude
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about outcomes
UNCERTAINTY
mutated pathogens
local climate change
unfamiliar toxins / hazards
RISK
known pathogens
normal flood / drought
familiar toxins / hazards
Contrasting Aspects of Incertitude
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about outcomes
AMBIGUITY
different interests / priorities
divergent notions of harm
trust, fairness, ethics
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
known pathogens
normal flood / drought
familiar toxins / hazards
mutated pathogens
local climate change
unfamiliar toxins / hazards
Contrasting Aspects of Incertitude
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about outcomes
IGNORANCE
unknowns, surprise, novelty
new vectors / forms of harm
(CFCs-ozone, BSE, EDCs)
Contrasting Aspects of Incertitude
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
known pathogens
normal flood / drought
familiar toxins / hazards
mutated pathogens
local climate change
unfamiliar toxins / hazards
different interests / priorities
divergent notions of harm
trust, fairness, ethics
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about outcomes
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
risk / cost-benefit analysis
multi-criteria assessment
probabilistic techniques
uncertainty heuristics
interval analysis
sensitivity analysis
participatory deliberation
scenarios / backcasting
MC mapping, q-method
monitor, surveil, research
social / institutional learning
adaptive management
Alternative Approaches to Appraisal
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about outcomes
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
decision rules
aggregative analysis
deliberative process
political closure
reductive modeling
stochastic reasoning
rules of thumb
insurance
evidence-basing
agenda-setting
horizon scanning
transdisciplinarity
liability law
harm definitions
indicators / metrics
institutional remits
Pressures for Reductive Aggregation
need for reflexivity over epistemic dynamics of power
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about outcomes
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
POWER DYNAMICS
there is a tendency for
incumbent institutions to
favour reductive-aggregative
appraisal procedures
to justify favoured pathways
Pressures for Reductive Aggregation
need for reflexivity over epistemic dynamics of power
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about outcomes
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
Pressures for Reductive Aggregation
need for reflexivity over epistemic dynamics of power
PRECAUTION:
‘broaden out’ view of
incertitude: frameworks,
methods, pathways,
pros & cons, perspectives
Precaution as Broadening of Appraisal (after EEA, 2001)
extend scope additive, cumulative, synergistic effects; life cycles, compliance
real world effects: CFCs, DES; „closed systems‟: MTBE, PCBs
humility on science sensitivities & proxies: mobility, persistence, bioaccumulation
omission of persistence in organochlorines, MTBE, CFCs
active research prioritise open monitoring & surveillance & targeted experiment
neglected: TBT, BSE; no monitoring: asbestos, benzene, PCBs
deliberate argument levels of proof, burden of evidence, onus of persuasion
Swann committee on antimicrobials, 1967 later ignored
alternative options pros, cons, justifications for range of options & substitutes
ALARA, BAT, BPM – ionising radiation, fisheries, acid rain
Public engagement independence through pluralism and robustness on values
benzene, DES, asbestos, acid rain, fisheries
institutional learning collect all relevant knowledge, beyond the ‘usual suspects’
MTBE / engineers; BSE / vets (clinical / toxicology / epidaem.)
From Knowledge to Action
challenges for governance of technological vulnerability
epistemic: uncertain and contested understandings of complex dynamics
needs precaution in appraisal (knowledge production, learning)
From Knowledge to Action
challenges for governance of technological vulnerability
epistemic: uncertain and contested understandings of complex dynamics
needs precaution in appraisal (knowledge production, learning)
ontological: material intractability to action: technology and nature ‘bite back’
needs resilience and robustness in technology commitments
From Precaution to Robustness
how and under what conditions and perspectives do
resilience and robustness reduce technological vulnerabilities?
like ‘sustainability’, dynamic properties are normatively nonspecific
- if referring to structure, then intrinsically conservative
- if referring to incumbent interests, then intrinsically regressive
- if referring to measures against vulnerability, then normatively progressive
key questions are therefore:
- what are the salient features of resilience, robustness (etc…)?
(in dynamics of vulnerability in technological pathways)
- how might we be more specific about the governance implications?
(with greater reflexivity about dynamics of framing and power)
shock (vulnerability to
transient disruption)
stress (vulnerability to
enduring shift)
control (vulnerability arises
internal to control system)
response (vulnerability arises
external to control system)
temporality
of target
vulnerabilities
aim of governance intervention
From Precaution to Robustness
shock (vulnerability to
transient disruption)
stress (vulnerability to
enduring shift)
control (vulnerability arises
internal to control system)
response (vulnerability arises
external to control system)
temporality
of target
vulnerabilities
aim of governance intervention
STABILITY
From Precaution to Robustness
context
system
endogenous
disruption
STABILITY
vulnerabilities are held to be
broadly subject to control
system
(eg: routine optimising
management of pest
outbreaks in intensive
monocultures)
From Precaution to Robustness
NB: ‘context’ includes both
positive notions of ‘system
environment and
constructivist notions of
subjective framings
STABILITY
DURABILITY
shock (vulnerability to
transient disruption)
stress (vulnerability to
enduring shift)
control (vulnerability arises
internal to control system)
response (vulnerability arises
external to control system)
temporality
of target
vulnerabilities
aim of governance intervention
From Precaution to Robustness
context
system
internal
stresses
DURABILITY
From Precaution to Robustness
context
system
internal
stresses
DURABILITY
From Precaution to Robustness
context
system
internal
stresses
DURABILITY
From Precaution to Robustness
context
system
internal
stresses
DURABILITY
From Precaution to Robustness
context
system
internal
stresses
DURABILITY
vulnerabilities are held to be
broadly subject to control
system
(eg: active adaptations against
soil erosion in intensive
agricultural systems)
From Precaution to Robustness
STABILITY
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
shock (vulnerability to
transient disruption)
stress (vulnerability to
enduring shift)
control (vulnerability arises
internal to control system)
response (vulnerability arises
external to control system)
temporality
of target
vulnerabilities
aim of governance intervention
From Precaution to Robustness
system
context
transient exogenous shocks
RESILIENCE
vulnerabilities are held to be
beyond control system,
so subject only to response
(eg: maintaining productivity
of specific farming system
through episodic drought)
From Precaution to Robustness
STABILITY
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
ROBUSTNESS
shock (vulnerability to
transient disruption)
stress (vulnerability to
enduring shift)
control (vulnerability arises
internal to control system)
response (vulnerability arises
external to control system)
temporality
of target
vulnerabilities
aim of governance intervention
From Precaution to Robustness
contextsecular
external
stress
system
ROBUSTNESS
From Precaution to Robustness
secular
external
stress
ROBUSTNESS
context
system
From Precaution to Robustness
secular
external
stress
ROBUSTNESS
context
system
From Precaution to Robustness
secular
external
stress
ROBUSTNESS
context
system
From Precaution to Robustness
contextsecular
external
stress
system
ROBUSTNESS
vulnerabilities are held to be
beyond control system, so
subject only to response
(eg: transforming /
passive adaptation of
farming system to long term
secular change in climate)
From Precaution to Robustness
STABILITY RESILIENCE
context
DURABILITY
context
system
endogenous
disruption
system
internal
stresses
system
context
transient exogenous shocks
ROBUSTNESS
contextsecular
external
stress
system
From Precaution to Robustness
STABILITY
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
ROBUSTNESS
Dynamic Properties of Sustainability
shock (vulnerability to
transient disruption)
stress (vulnerability to
enduring shift)
control (vulnerability arises
internal to control system)
response (vulnerability arises
external to control system)
temporality
of target
vulnerabilities
aim of governance intervention
STABILITY
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
ROBUSTNESS
SUSTAINABILITY
Dynamic Properties of Sustainability
shock (vulnerability to
transient disruption)
stress (vulnerability to
enduring shift)
control (vulnerability arises
internal to control system)
response (vulnerability arises
external to control system)
temporality
of target
vulnerabilities
aim of governance intervention
STABILITY
Pressures for Incumbent Pathways
POWER DYNAMICS
tendency for incumbent
institutions to favour
equilibrium strategies, which
preserve the status quo
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
ROBUSTNESS
Need to be reflexive about the dynamics of power
shock (vulnerability to
transient disruption)
stress (vulnerability to
enduring shift)
control (vulnerability arises
internal to control system)
response (vulnerability arises
external to control system)
temporality
of target
vulnerabilities
aim of governance intervention
STABILITY
eg - avian influenza:
equilibrium methods, routinised
practices encoded in standard,
global surveillance, early warning
and rapid response repertoires
Pressures for Incumbent Pathways
Need to be reflexive about the dynamics of power
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
ROBUSTNESS
shock (vulnerability to
transient disruption)
stress (vulnerability to
enduring shift)
control (vulnerability arises
internal to control system)
response (vulnerability arises
external to control system)
temporality
of target
vulnerabilities
aim of governance intervention
STABILITY
Need to be reflexive about the dynamics of power
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
ROBUSTNESS
agile, visionary.
supple strategies
shock (vulnerability to
transient disruption)
stress (vulnerability to
enduring shift)
control (vulnerability arises
internal to control system)
response (vulnerability arises
external to control system)
temporality
of target
vulnerabilities
aim of governance intervention
reactive, directed
equilibrium strategies
foresighted, persistent,
malleable strategies
vigilant, responsive,
absorptive strategies
Pressures for Incumbent Pathways
STABILITY
control shock
specific (eg: outage)
general
RESILIENCE
respond to shock
specific (eg: terror)
general
DURABILITY
control stress
specific (eg: peak oil)
general
ROBUSTNESS
respond to stress
specific (eg: climate)
general
INTENTIONAL
PURPOSEdirected
fixity
clarity
coherence
tenacity
vigour
resolution
agility
POLITICAL
ATTENTIONprioritised
alertness
focus
vigilance
persistence
foresight
vision
acuity
POLICY
INTERVENTIONproportional
reactive
targeted
responsive
transitional
flexible
transformative
adaptive
SOCIO-
TECHNICAL
COMMITMENTS
optimised
elastic
resistant
absorptive
applicable
malleable
pliant
supple
Contrasting Policy Implications
Strategic nuances of different dynamic properties