Analysing REDD+: Challenges and choices

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THINKING beyond the canopy

Arild Angelsen, CIFOR & Norwegian Univ. of Life Sciences

Rio, 18 June 2012

Analysing REDD+: Challenges and Choices

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2008

2012

2009

3rd edited volume


3 generations of REDD+ research

Focus Key ques+ons Books

1 Designing REDD+ and learning from related experiences in the past

What should REDD+ look like to be effec>ve, efficient and equitable (3E)?

Moving Ahead Realising REDD+ (Analysing REDD+)

2 The poli>cal economy and implementa+on of REDD+

How is REDD+ being decided and implemented, and why? (What hinders or enables decision and implementa>on of 3E REDD+ policies and projects?)

Analysing REDD+

3 Assessing the impact of REDD+

Does REDD+ work? (How can REDD+ work beNer?) (How should REDD+ outcomes be measured?)

(All)


§  3 research components + 1 knowledge sharing

§  A diverse set of questions and methods

§  A large number of partners

§  12 countries

The Global Comparative Study on REDD+ (GCS)



Structure of the book



How to achieve transformational change (TC)?

§  Definition of TC a shift in discourse, attitudes, power relations, and deliberate policy and protest action that leads policy formulation and implementation away from business as usual policy approaches that directly or indirectly support deforestation and degradation

§  Examples of TC §  changes in economic, regulatory and governance frameworks,

including the devolution of rights to local users §  removals of perverse incentives: subsidies and concessions that

serve selective economic interests and stimulate DD §  reforms of forest industry policies and regulations that effectively

reduce unsustainable extraction

REDD+ and TC: a chicken – egg problem


4 Is framework

Business as usual

REDD+ Agenda SePng: incen>ves + ideas

Output: Policy decision -‐ broader policies & ins+tu+ons -‐ Specific policies and measures -‐ admin and technical capacity

Outcome: Policy impact -‐  emissions/-‐removals -‐  livelihoods -‐  biodiversity -‐ admin and technical capacity

REDD+ Na+onal and Subna+onal Ac+on Arena

Transforma+onal Change

REDD+ Interna+onal Policy Arena

ShiSs in incen>ves, discourses and power rela>ons

Ins>tu>ons Path Dependency and S>ckiness

Actors

Informa>on Data, Knowledge

Interests Materialis>c,

Individual, Organized

Ideas Beliefs, Discursive

prac>ces

Policy Process


How to achieve TC?

1. Changing economic incentives §  International financial resources exogenous to the national

and subnational systems §  The core REDD+ idea: REDD+ should change the basic

benefit–cost equation §  Win-win-lose-lose:

•  large actors likely to lose (politically unacceptable to compensate)

•  full international compensation of REDD+ costs is unrealistic


… how to achieve TC 2. New ideas and information §  A new discourse on the value of standing forests and their

role in CC, a potential “game changer” §  Spotlight on old and new issues & need for change of BAU

•  Indigenous/local rights, conflicts local – external uses •  Governance & corruption

§  Redefine roles between developed and developing countries: poor countries providing services to the world

3. New actors and coalitions §  Changing economic incentives and new ideas and discourses

can lead to shifts in power relations among key actors §  New actors enter the REDD+ arena and gain power and

influence in decision making

In the end: money speaks louder than words


REDD+ and the global economy (Chapt 4)

§  Globalisation and market & financial liberalisation •  Increased exposure of forests to global trade and

investment •  Aggravate historical trends of DD •  REDD+ implementation more challenging, but also

opportunities (influencing market chains) §  Implications for REDD+

•  REDD+ as PES more expensive: § need for other policies

•  Look at both demand and supply side §  Detailed studies of 3 regions


The evolution of REDD+ (Chapt 3)

§  REDD+ - as an idea - has been extremely successful •  A good idea (CC, result-based, significant funding,

burden sharing) •  Sufficiently broad/vague to accommodate different

interests §  REDD+ has evolved significantly, driven by:

•  the absence of a new international climate agreement •  strong business as usual (BAU) interests •  a large number of actors with diverging agendas •  experience and learning


REDD+ at 4 key arenas

Key trends

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Objectives: CO2 Co-benefits

Funding: Rich pay poor REDD+ countries

Policies: PES Broad PAMs Forest policies

Funding: Market Public (aid)

Scale: National Local/projects

A dilemma

§  REDD+ has attracted many actors with different agendas and ideologies, each trying to get a piece of the perceived REDD+ cake.

§  Result: a diversified and less focussed REDD+ agenda, which risks losing the initial characteristics of REDD+ that made it attractive in the first place.

§  But: broad coalitions of different interests and actors with different ideologies are needed to get the political support for REDD+ and can also be a basis for transformational changes.

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Part 2a: Implementing REDD+: National Level Perspectives

§ Politics and Power (Chapt 5)

§ Scales of Governance (Chapt 6)

§ Financing REDD+ (Chapt 7)

§ Who benefits and why (Chapt 8)


Political economy framework


Politics and power in national REDD+ policy processes

§  REDD+ requires 4 preconditions to overcome politico-economic hurdles: •  Relative autonomy of nation states •  National ownership over REDD+ policy processes •  Inclusive REDD+ policy processes •  Coalitions calling for transformational change

§  Formulating and implementing national REDD+ strategies most challenging in countries where international actors drive REDD+

§  Breaking up institutional and political path dependencies will need participation of state elites and business actors


Actors shaping the policy discourse (%

with a REDD+ position in media)


Multiple levels and multiple challenges for REDD+

§  REDD+ a multilevel endeavour •  Must ensure the interconnections of global demands,

national and sub-national structures, and local peoples’ needs and aspirations.

§  Sound information flows important •  Between local and national levels are essential for

accountable MRV and leakage control. •  Across the levels can increase negotiation powers of

disadvantaged groups and ensure the 3Es §  REDD+ multilevel governance systems must match

incentives and interests with transparent institutions to reduce conflict


Multilevel governance mechanisms


Financing REDD+


Financing REDD+ §  Where are we?

•  Short term finance available, yet slow disbursement and scarce investment opportunities

•  No adequate and predictable long-term strategy to meet REDD+ financial needs

§  Interim phase with no ambitious CC mitigation goals: •  REDD+ finance will be mobilized by the public sector •  Likely to be fragmented and channelled through various agencies •  Thus, need to test financing options that leverage private sector

finance and directly address DD §  Options for financing:

•  Middle income countries: self finance, engage in results-based agreements with donors and international agencies

•  Fragile states rely on ODA-type finances, combining financial support, technical assistance, and policy guidance


Who should benefit and why? §  Designing effective benefit sharing mechanisms for REDD+

•  Must first determine what REDD+ seeks to achieve as the objectives affect the design of benefit and cost sharing mechanisms

§  Benefits are not only financial •  Few REDD+ projects are providing direct financial transfers •  Thus benefit sharing must tend to a wide range of activities

§  The legitimacy of the decision making institutions and processes is critical •  Legal clarity •  Consensus on which institutions have the right to make

decisions •  Attention to procedural rights


Discourses on who should benefit

Effectiveness and efficiency vs equity discourses Equity discourse 1: benefits should go to actors with legal rights

Equity discourse 2: benefits should go to low-‐emi0ng forest stewards

Equity discourse 3: benefits should go to those incurring costs

Equity discourse 4: benefits should go to effec6ve implementers


Examples of potential REDD+ beneficiaries and the costs and benefits they may accrue

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Part 2b: Implementing REDD+ Subnational projects

§ Why tenure matters (Chapt 9) § REDD+ projects combine old and

new (Chapt 10) § Local stakeholder hopes and worries

(Chapt 11) § Implications of landscape location

(Chapt 12)


Tenure matters in REDD+

§  Although unprecedented attention to forest tenure, national action limited

§  Project-level action faces substantial obstacles if no national backing

§  National institutions often inadequate to address customary rights

§  Policy makers ought to address underlying causes of DD and target tenure issues in parallel, though both likely to face strong resistance


Forest tenure distribution in 2008


Exclusion rights and practice


REDD+ projects as hybrids

§ Most projects intend to combine ICDP and PES §  Advantages under policy and market

uncertainty: Ø Make early progress on project establishment Ø Fallback if PES does not go ahead

§  Yet there are challenges: Ø ICDP has underperformed Ø PES is played down and this might have

negative consequences


Proponent expectations on impacts


Local hopes and worries

§  Local forest users in sample understood REDD+ is fundamentally about forest projection; they hoped REDD+ would improve incomes and worried would hurt livelihoods

§  Local participants depend on proponents for information about REDD+, and there may be need for independent brokers or advisers

§  Key challenges: Ø Communicate clearly to villagers Ø Involve them meaningfully in design and

implementation Ø Balance forest protection with welfare concerns


Local understanding of REDD+


Hopes & worries concerning REDD+


Location of forest carbon projects

§  Across countries: •  Countries with a higher biodiversity index and

jurisdictions with more protected area §  Brazil and Indonesia:

•  Jurisdictions with higher deforestation rates and forest carbon densities

§  6 GCS countries: •  Sample villages that are inside project boundaries

depend on agriculture, emphasising the challenge of implementing REDD+ without undermining agricultural livelihoods


Distribution of REDD+ projects


Mean values of factors considered in site selection in municipalities &

districts with & without REDD+ projects

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L. Verchot

§  REDD+ and payments may be made based on performance, which implies that there must be assessments of the results of REDD+ programmes.

§  In the readiness phase support will go to policy reforms, rather than proven emissions reductions. Good performance indicators are critical in this and all three REDD+ phases.

§  Valuable lessons on governance indicators can be learned from the aid sector: avoid seeking the perfect indicator and use expert judgment extensively.

Performance indicators and REDD+ implementation 13 Chapter

Indicators §  Challenges:

•  Monitor results •  Must be credible to stakeholders •  Appropriate for the objectives of the each

REDD+ implementation phase.

§  Rationale: •  Management: keep efforts on track •  Evaluation: assess success of actions

§  Lessons from ODA experience: •  Timing of assessment (3-5 y) vs. timing of

outcomes & impacts (10-15 y) •  Attribution problems •  Reliability of information

PHASE 1 READINESS

PHASE 2 POLICY MEASURES

PHASE 3 RESULTS-‐BASED

ACTION

Implementa+on metrics

Input indicators •  Readiness funds disbursed

•  Consulta>ons done Output indicators •  Pilot projects •  R-‐PP approved

Performance metrics

Output indicators •  Strategies, policies and laws adopted

•  Ins>tu>ons (MRV etc.) in place

Outcome indicators • Gross deforesta>on • Increased share of restored na>ve forest

• Cover Impact indicators • Quan>fied changes in carbon emissions

Input Output Outcome Impact

Results chain

§  Robust standards and methods have been developed to estimate emissions from deforestation at the project level.

§  Because baseline and monitoring methodologies were adopted only recently, many pilot projects do not comply.

§  The next generation of projects should identify or develop suitable methodologies before investing in the development of their baselines and MRV systems.

Baselines and monitoring in local REDD+ projects 14 Chapter

IPCC has developed measurement methods

that serve as the basis for several standards

§  VCS •  VM0004 – Avoid planned LUC •  VM0006 –Mosaic D&D •  VM0007 – REDD •  VM0009 –Avoided mosaic deforestation •  VM0015 – Avoided unplanned

deforestation

§  ACR REDD framework module •  Planned deforestation •  Unplanned deforestation •  Extraction of fuelwood

MRV survey of 17 demonstration projects show most do not meet

requirements of VCS or ACR §  Prior LU often difficult to verify in spatially explicit way §  Projects limit monitoring to the project area; no reference

region or leakage belt §  9 of 17 project developers modeled historical rate of

deforestation in the project area; three are in the process §  3 of 17 projects use spatial models to project the location

of future deforestation; the other 14 rely on expert knowledge

§  13 project have RS images for more than three points in 10 year period

§  7 of 17 projects have high resolution data (<10m); all have medium resolution data (10–60m).

§  Lack of data limits converting area estimates of DD to carbon stock changes in most tropical countries.

§  Institutional capacity to conduct inventories and measurements for improving GHG inventories in AFOLU has been slow in non-Annex I.

§  Constraints can be overcome with investments in productive partnerships between technical services in REDD+ countries, intergovernmental agencies and ARIs during the readiness phase.

EFs: Converting land use change to CO2 estimates 15 Chapter

C Stock C up

take via

grow

th

Disturbance Harvest

C stock at >me 1

C stock at >me 2

Two methods are available for estimating EFs

Gain – loss method

Stock difference method

§  Developing RELs is constrained by lack of quality data. §  Data availability and quality should determine the methods for

RELs. Consideration of drivers of DD will be important for adjusting RELs to national circumstances.

§  A stepwise approach to developing RELs will facilitate broad participation, early startup and the motivation for improvements over time, alongside efforts to enhance measurement and monitoring capacities.

A stepwise framework for developing REDD+ RELs 16 Chapter

Criteria for comparing country circumstances and strategies

Expand on the Stepwise approach and link it to the financial incentive baseline

Historical deforesta>on and forest degrada>on

Na+onal circumstances relevant for BAU (e.g., drivers) Na+onal

circumstances relevant for FIB (e.g.,

capabili>es) BAU baseline

Financial incen+ve benchmark (FIB) (compensa>on benchmark) baseline

Other considera+ons (e.g., efficient use of funds & uncertainty)

§  REDD+ policy makers, project personnel and investors value REDD+ safeguards.

§  To gain national-level buy-in for REDD+ safeguards, national sovereignty must be recognised and competing safeguard policies should be harmonised.

§  The REDD+ safeguards dialogue needs to move towards action. This includes introducing guidelines, low-cost strategies and capacity building to support the interpretation.

REDD+ safeguards in national policy discourse and pilot projects 17 Chapter

§  REDD+ safeguards are a set of norms or institutions that guide expectations surrounding social and environmental outcomes of REDD.

§  Several international and nonprofit organisations have articulated safeguard standards for REDD+ policies at the national level (e.g. FCPF)

§  Countries have little capacity to monitor social and biodiversity impacts.

§  There is uneven compliance with safeguards in demonstration projects

Some key findings


The book’s 5 key messages §  As an idea, REDD+ is a success story:

•  Significant result-based funding to address an urgent need for climate change mitigation

•  Sufficiently broad to serve as a canopy, under which a wide range of actors can grow their own trees

§  REDD+ faces huge challenges: •  Powerful political and economic interests •  Coordination across various government levels and agencies; •  Benefits to balance effectiveness and equity •  Tenure insecurity and safeguards must be genuinely addressed •  Transparent institutions, reliable carbon monitoring and realistic

reference levels to build result-based systems


… key messages §  REDD+ requires - and can catalyse - Trans Change

•  New economic incentives, New information and discourses, New actors & New policy coalitions; all have the potential to move domestic policies away from the BAU trajectory.

§  REDD+ projects are hybrids in high deforestation areas: •  Mix the enforcement of regulations and support to alternative

livelihoods (ICDP) with result-based incentives (PES). •  Projects located in high deforestation and high forest carbon

areas, yielding high additionality if they succeed. §  ‘No regret’ policy options exist:

•  Build political support and coalitions for change. •  Invest in adequate information systems. •  Implement policies desirable regardless of CC objectives.

We acknowledge the support from:

NORAD and the Ministry of Environment of Norway, AusAID (Australia),

European Commission, Dept. of Energy and Climate Change & Dept. for Int. Dev. (UK),

FinAid (Finland), Fonds Français pour l'Environnement Mondial (France)

& all research partners and individuals that have contributed to the GCS research

Thanks

Education

Analysing REDD+: Challenges and choices