Muhammad Usman

M.Sc. (Hons) Agricultural Economics

2012

Supervised by: Prof. Dr. M. Ashfaq

Director,

Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture Faisalabad.

Topic

An Estimation of Economic, Locational and

Climatic effect on Average Yield of Chickpea

in Rain-fed Areas.

Outline

Effect of Climatic Factors on Yield of chickpeaTemperatureRainfall

Introduction

Climate change is one of the complex challenges of the new era and Pakistan is adversely affected by climatic change.

Climate change effect on the food crops is a burning issue and country like Pakistan is subject to serious effects of climate change. Many crops are being grown in Pakistan and chickpea is also very important crop because it is grown on marginal and rain-fed areas.

Being important in pulses Pakistan stands at 3rd position

in term of chickpea production, 2nd in term of area but 6th in term of yield of Chickpea.

Continued….

In 2010-11, Pakistan had 0.561(million tonns) production of Chickpea but if look at the yield, It is evident that chickpea yield in the country is low compared to other agricultural countries.

In Pakistan chickpea is grown in all four provinces but major share of its production comes from Punjab(91.6 percent).

Continued….

In Punjab Bakhar, Mianwali, Layyah, Jhang and Khushab are the major producers of the chickpea (GOP, 2011).

Desi and Kabuli are two main kinds of Chickpea

Continued….

Chickpeas need a subtropical or tropical climate with more than 400 millimeters (16 inches) of annual rain.

In 2012, the production is decreased by 41.3 percent because of low rainfall, high temperature and specially the frost effect last year (GOP, 2012).

Continued….

Among the other climatic factors change in temperature and change in rainfall has significant effect on crop yield.

Objectives

To estimate the economic, locational and climatic effect on average yield of chickpea in the selected districts of Punjab province.

To evaluate the yield response of the farmers in the selected districts of the Punjab province.

To suggest policy options for chickpea on the basis of results.

MethodologySecondary data of two Districts (Mianwali, Khushab) on Climate variables (temperature and rainfall) and economic variables (input prices, output prices and yield) for the period of 1981 to 2011 were used. Sources of the data are • Regional Metrological Department

• Punjab Development Statistics

• National Fertilizer Development Center, Islamabad,

• Economic survey of Pakistan

Continued….

The model used to estimate the effect is given below

Yieldt=βo+β1input_change+β2input_change_sq+β3area_change+β4area_change_sq+β5time_trend+β6temp_max_sowing+β

7temp_max_maturity+β8rainfall_vegetation +β9rainfall_maturity+µt………

Continue…

Economic Variables:

Change in Input use

Pcrop *(∆y/ ∆Qinput) = (Pinput)

Input_change = ∆Qinput = Qinput,t – Qinput,t-1

Pcrop,t-1 (Ycrop,t –Ycrop,t-1)/Pinput,t

Site Variables: Change in area under cultivation of Chickpea

Continued….

Climatic variables:TemperatureRainfall

Results and Discussions Yield response to Economic, Site and Climatic Variables

for Mianwali district Coefficients

  B Std. Error t-value Sig.

(Constant) 16.862 27.397 0.615 0.5455

Input_change0.763 0.272 2.800 0.011

Input_change_sq 0.011 0.065 0.176 0.861Areaa_change 0.046 0.034 1.341 0.195Area_change_sq

-0.000

5 0.0001 -1.113 0.279Time_trend 0.153 0.077 1.992 0.060Temp_max_maturity 1.176 0.374 3.138 0.005Temp_max_sowing -1.367 0.781 -1.752 0.095Rainfall_vegetation 0.008 0.020 0.403 0.691Rainfall_maturity -0.011 0.011 -1.004 0.327R-square 0.62      

F-value 6.06      

P-value 000      

Dependent Variable: Yield (Mounds/hectare)

Continued… Yield response to Economic, Site and Climatic Variables

for Khushab district Coefficients

  B Std. Error t-value Sig.

(Constant) 15.939 9.624 1.656 0.114

Input_change 0.754 0.165 4.571 0.000

Input_change_sq -0.031 0.035 -0.891 0.383

Areaa_change -0.015 0.021 -0.738 0.469

Area_change_sq -0.0002 0.0005 -0.541 0.594

Time_trend 0.185 0.038 4.760 0.000

Temp_max_maturity 0.450 0.169 2.661 0.015

Temp_max_sowing -0.659 0.226 -2.915 0.008

Rainfall_vegetation 0.034 0.011 2.945 0.008

Rainfall_maturity -0.010 0.012 -0.876 0.392

R-square 0.68      

F-value 16.45      

P-value 000      

Dependent Variable: Yield (Mounds/hectare)

Continued…. Yield response to Economic, Site and Climatic Variables

for both district Coefficients

  B Std. Error t-value Sig.

(Constant) 10.317 9.718 1.061 0.293

Input_change 2.105 0.384 5.470 0.000

Input_change_sq -0.198 0.208 -0.954 0.344

Areaa_change 0.002 0.019 0.118 0.905

Area_change_sq 0.00005 0.000 0.565 0.574

Time_trend 0.213 0.038 5.549 0.000

Temp_max_maturity 0.639 0.160 3.985 0.000

Temp_max_sowing -0.691 0.246 -2.806 0.007

Rainfall_vegetation 0.017 0.010 1.612 0.113

Rainfall_maturity -0.002 0.008 -0.277 0.782

R-square 0.640      

F-value 15.20      

P-value 000      

Dependent Variable: Yield (Mounds/hectare)

Policy Suggestions

The negative effect of high temperature can be avoided by switching to the chickpea varieties having different growing periods and heat tolerant capacity.

The benefits of the longer growing seasons of the chickpea can be taken by changing the planting dates of the crop which will help the farmer to take the full advantage of the rainfall at the later stages of the crop.

As the farmers of the chickpea are solely dependent on the rainfall to get better yield so there should be awareness programs on the use of modern irrigation techniques like sprinkler irrigation etc.

Questions

Thank You