ALA 2011 - Michael Cairns

Michael CairnsManaging PartnerInformation Media Partners

Parallel Universe

Will Libraries and Publishers Learn to Share?

Michael Cairns - Information Media Partners 2

Books are not a success storyBooks are expensiveBooks are hard to navigateBooks are of declining importance to scholarsBooks are rarely usedBooks are a lost opportunity



Questions for Books

• Where• Which• When• Why


Relationships are tough

Jill

Ford

Newt

Publishers

Libraries

Entire Staff

Goodyear

Jack


We Can Work it Out

We Can Work it Out


Agenda

• Libraries today• Strategic

initiatives• A way forward for

publishers and libraries


An average spend of $150K?Estimated Data Points

Public Library: $1,659M

Academic Library: $340M

Number of libraries: 13,000

Library total approximately 5% of total publishing industry revenue.


Improving Quality of Life

25.4 million Americans

reported using their public

library more than 20 times in the

last year, up from 20.3 million

households in 2006.

Source: OCLC How Libraries Stack-up

Source: COLUSA Report


Assisting patrons• Online job applications

(67 percent)• Access to job

databases and other online resources (88 percent)

• Civil service exam materials (75 percent);

• Software or other resources (69 percent)

• Resumes and other employment materialsSource: OCLC How Libraries Stack-up



Despite strong ROI

• Reductions seen in 41 state library budgets during fiscal 2010.

• Of states reporting decreases in local funding to public libraries, the majority were in the 5-10 percent range.

Source: OCLC How Libraries Stack-up



51 million “by-computer” Patrons

Use of the public library by

computer (from home, work or

school) doubled from 2006 to

2009 (6 times per year, up from 2.9

times in 2006)Source: OCLC How Libraries Stack-up



When asked about academic libraries

• 95 percent of Americans (220 million) agree that college and research libraries are an essential part of the learning community.

• 97 percent of Americans (224.5 million) agree that college and research libraries connect users with a world of knowledge



Bigger, better, best librariesUVA

Rules!

Can’t you ever shut

up!



Troubling Stats for Monographs

1986 2008

+ 7.3%

$1.5mm $7.0mm

Annual Serials Spend

+ 374%

1986 2008

+ 2.9%

$29 $59

Monograph Unit Cost

+ 89%

1986 2008

0%

32,679 32,745

Monographs Purchased

0%

1986 2008

+ 4.4%

$4,011 $10,302

Salaries

+157%

1986 2008

+ 4.0%

$1,111 $2,645

Operating Expenses

+ 138%

1986 2008

+ 3.2%

109.6 219.9

CPI

+ 101%Source: ARL Statistics 2007 - 2008

Median Monograph and Serial Expenditures in ARL Libraries, 1986–2008

Expenditure Trends in ARL Libraries, 1986–2008 Unadjusted dollar figures


Supply & Demand

1986 2008

+ 6.4%

7,047 27,822

ILL Borrowed

+ 295%

1986 2008

+ 3.8%

16,092 36,383

ILL Lent

+ 126%

Population Change 1986 - 2008

Graduate Students

Faculty

Total Students

+ 3.4%

+1.3%

+1.4%

+ 111%

+ 33%

+ 36%

During the period 1986 -2008, monographs purchased by student population fell 36%

Source: ARL- Statistics 2007-2008


One Year

Fifty Times

Over reliance on Inter-Library Loan?


Business strategy in the library world

• Delivering efficient services

• Understanding cost structures

• Opportunities in the network

• Effective resource management

• Expanding body of research



The cost in book tonnage

Source: Courant, Nielsen: On the Cost of Keeping a Book


The books have already left the building

More than 70 million volumes off-site

– 30% of Columbia’s collection– 40% of UC Berkeley’s– 50% of UCLA’s– +50% of Harvard’s, etc.

No evidence that loss of browsing has adversely affected scholarship or institutional reputation

Source: Malpas – RLG Partnership Symposium: “When the Books Leave the Building” Chicago, June 2010


Redundancy equals opportunity

• Scope of mass-digitized corpus in Hathi is already sufficient to replace at least 30% of most academic print book collections– Ratio of replaceable inventory independent of collection size

• More than 750K titles (23% of corpus) held by at least 99 libraries AND at least one large-scale print preservation repository

• More than 1.5M titles (46% of corpus) held by at least 25 libraries AND at least one

• Risk tolerance will determine appropriate level of redundancy



Sharing may be good business

• Average US academic research library could achieve:

• Space recovery of at least 20,000 ASF• a new research commons

• Cost avoidance of ~$1M for new high-density storage

• capital campaign diverted to commons• Cost avoidance of ~$1M per year for on-site mgt

– Funds to be redirected to cloud providers • Ongoing space reductions sufficient to achieve

steady state in campus collection



E-book readers in the library

The Asus E-Reader

The Plastic Logic Reader

Interead's Cool-er Reader

Sony's Digital Reader

Amazon's Kindle 2 and Kindle DXSource: Jared Newman. Get Ready for the E-Reader Rumble of 2010

Barnes and Noble - Nook

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703816204574483790552304348.html?ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW�


A buying pool for eBooks?


How is that a good model for us?


Toward a new model?


Recall: Relationships are hard

• Advance market intelligence– Cooperative approach to

understanding patron and buyer

• Sourcing metadata from libraries


Recall: Relationships are hard

• Monographs to databases– Applications, usage, linkage– Serials experience is

instructive– Greater intelligence in

purchasing– Improving value proposition

for libraries• Socialize the books


Has the train already left?

• Libraries advanced

• A new business Model

• Monograph databases

• Toward an equal model


Summary

• Libraries advanced in rebuilding their operations

• Expect to apply lessons of hybrid print/digital paradigm to eBooks

• “Buy and hope” is not sustainable but,• Potential to grow channel: demand and

supply imbalance• Desire for cooperation

Michael [email protected] PartnerInformation Media PartnersBlog: personanondata.blogspot.comTwitter: @personanondata

Parallel Universe

Will Libraries and Publishers Learn to Share?

Education

ALA 2011 - Michael Cairns