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Agriculture, Health andFood-Borne and Zoonotic
Diseases
Joachim Otte et al.
Building an Integrated Agriculture and Health Agenda: Issues for International Research & Policy
London, 23 June 2010
Food, Agriculture and Emergence of Zoonotic Diseases
Joachim Otte et al.
Building an Integrated Agriculture and Health Agenda: Issues for International Research & Policy
London, 23 June 2010
Outline
• Drivers, risks & vulnerability / resilience of society
• Wildlife : human interface
• Livestock sector intensification – example: China poultry and HPAI H5N1
• Trends in disease emergence
• Challenges for an ‘integrated’ health agenda
Meat demand growth 2000 - 2030
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
EAP EECA LAC MENA S Asia SSA
Beef Mutton Pork Poultry
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
EAP EECA LAC MENA S Asia SSA
Beef Mutton Pork Poultry
Million MTs %
Source: FAO Projections
725
EncroachmentSpill-overSpill back
AlteredecologyTranslocation
GrowthTravel
Urbanization
Pop. growthIntensification
EncroachmentAltered ecology
TechnologyFood habits
Pathogen reservoirs & risk factors
Domesticanimal‘pool’
Human ‘pool’
Wildlife‘pool’
Adapted from Daszak et al. 2008
Vulnerability / Resilience• Ageing population• Social cohesion• Migrant labour• International interactions• Public / media openness• Political leadership• General education• Information dissemination• Pathogen identification• Vaccines & anti-virals• Waste disposal• etc.
Nicoll et al. 2009
Wildlife : Human Interface
Wildlife : human interface (1)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Savanna Gallery forest Forest
Keep as pet
Butcher
Hunt
Eat
%
Source: Wolfe et al. 2004 and 2005
• Consumption of bushmeat in Congo basin estimated at about 300g/person/day
• 4.5 million MTs extracted/year
• Road construction:• increases area in which hunting
becomes economical
• increases returns to logging (selective extraction)
• results in habitat fragmentation, which in turn affects infection risk
• ‘Viral chatter’, e.g. simian foamy virus, T-cell lymphocyte virus, etc.
• Epidemics: Ebola, Monkeypox, HIV-1 and -2, etc.
Exposure to nonhuman primates in rural Cameroon
Animal Production and Health Division
Manado, Indonesia, 2007 Manado, Indonesia, 2007 Animal Production and Health DivisionAnimal Production and Health Division
Manado, Indonesia, 2007
Manado, Indonesia, 2007
Manado, Indonesia, 2007 Animal Production and Health DivisionAnimal Production and Health Division
Wildlife : human interface (2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
DR
Co
ng
o
Zim
ba
bw
e
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
Ch
ile
Arg
en
tina
Ru
ss
ia
Po
lan
d
Urban food waste available to scavengers
g/person/day
Source: Luck 2010
Animal Production and Health Division
Marabu
HyenaBaboon
Pig
Intensification of Agriculture (Livestock Production)
China: Meat consumption & production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Poultry
Pork
Mutton
Beef
kg/capita/year
Source: FAOSTAT
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Pork
Poultry
1990 = 100
Consumption Production
China: Poultry density, 2005
GLW, 2007
India: Poultry density, 2005
GLW, 2007
India: Population density, 2005
CIESIN et al., 2004
China: Population density, 2005
CIESIN et al., 2004
Bingsheng & Yijun, 2007
China: Poultry farm density, 1996
Bingsheng & Yijun, 2007
China: Poultry farm density, 2005
China: Structure of broiler and layer sectors
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Farms Production
< 2000 2000 - 10,000 > 10,000
Broiler Sector
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Farms Production
<500 500 - 2,000 2,000 - 10,000 > 10,000
Layer Sector
Source: Bingsheng and Yijun. 2007
Informal ProcessingFormal, Integrated, Poultry Production
Live Bird Markets ‘Semi-formal Markets
Bingsheng & Yijun, 2007
China: % poultry farms > 50k birds, 2005
gs/Guangdong/1/96
ck/Nongkhai/N
IAH
400802/07 ck/T
H/N
P172/06
Guangzhou/1/06 JapaneseW
hiteEye/H
K/1038/06
Anhui/1/05
dk/Laos/3295/06 ck/M
alaysia/935/06 com
monm
agpie/HK
/645/06 Z
hejiang/16/06 JapaneseW
hiteEye/H
ongKong/73720/07
WhiteB
ackedMunia/H
ongKong/82820/07
Guangxi/1/05
dk/Guiyang/3009/05
dk/Guiyang/3242/05
gs/Guiyang/3422/05
ck/Guiyang3/055/05
gs/Yunnan/4494/05
gs/Guangxi/3017/05
gs/Guangxi/345/05 gs/G
uangxi/3316/05 dk/H
unan/127/05 dk/H
unan/149/05 dk/H
unan/152/05 dk/H
unan/139/05 E
gypt/0636NA
MR
U320/07
Egret/E
gypt/1162NA
MR
U3/06
dk/Egypt/22533/06
Egypt/14724N
AM
RU
320/06 turkey/T
urkey1//05 W
hooperSw
an/Mongolia/244/05
Nigeria/6e20/07
ck/Nigeria/641/06
Turkey/15/06 Iraq/207N
AM
RU
3/06 A
zerbaijan/001161/06 ck/K
rasnodar/01/06 sw
an/Iran/754/06 ck/Liaoning/23/05
Barhdgs/Q
inghai12/05 B
arhdgs/Qinghai1A
/05 ck/K
yoto/3/04 crow
/Kyoto/53/04
ck/Yam
aguchi/7/04 ck/K
orea/ES
/03 dk/G
uangxi/13/04 ck/Y
N/115/04
ck/YN
/374/04 Indonesia/C
DC
1046/07 Indonesia/C
DC
103220/07 Indonesia/C
DC
938/06 Indonesia/C
DC
887/06 Indonesia/C
DC
1047/07 Indonesia/283H
/06 Indonesia/326N
/06 Indonesia/C
DC
742/06 Indonesia/370E
/06 Indonesia/5/05
Indonesia/CD
C940/06
Indonesia/546bH/06
Indonesia/596/06 Indonesia/599/06
Indonesia/625/06 dk/Indonesia/M
S/04
ck/Indonesia/4/04 ck/Indonesia/11/03
ck/Indonesia/7/03 V
N/JP
14/05 ck/C
ambodia/013LC
1b/05 V
N/1194/04
VN
/1203/04 V
N/H
N3/0408/05
TH
/16/04 T
H/676/05
VN
/JPH
N30321/05
HK
/213/03 ck/H
enan/16/04 ck/H
enan/01/04 ck/H
enan/13/04 ck/H
enan/12/04 dk/G
uangxi/50/01 ck/H
K/Y
U777/02
ck/HK
/YU
22/02 m
igdk/Jiangxi1653/05 dk/G
uangxi/2775/05 ck/H
unan/41/04 blbird/H
unan1/04 treesparrow
/Henan/4/04
dk/Hubei/w
g/02 sw
/Anhui/ca/04
dk/Guangxi/1378/04
dk/Guangxi/1681/04
dk/Guangxi/1311/04
dk/Guangxi/2396/04
ck/Hunan/2292/06
ck/Shanxi/2/06
ck/Myanm
ar/06010011B/06
dk/Guiyang/504/06
ck/Guiyang237/06
gs/Guiyang/337/06
gs/Guiyang/1325/06
ck/Guiyang441/06
ck/Guiyang1218/06
ck/Guiyang846/06
ck/HK
/8911/01 ck/H
K/S
F219/01
ck/HK
/8791/01
gs/G
uan
gd
on
g/1/9
60.005
0 3 4 7 5 6 9 8 1 2
2.1.
12.
1.2
2.1.
3
2.5
2.3.
12.
3.2
2.3.
4
2.4
2.2
2.3.
3
H5N1 Clades
Over 1996 to 2008, parent virus gs/GD/1/96 has evolved resulting in 10 different clades(K. Inui, FAO VN)
HA clades of HPAIV H5N1 around Asia,Africa and Europe
2.2
1 2.3
2.1
1 2.3
0, 1, 2.1 - 2.5, 3,
4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
2.32.42.5
2.2
2.22.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
Selection for virulence
• Mode of transmission:• (i) horizontal ; vertical
• (ii) indirect ; direct
• Host homogeneity
• Host cluster connectivity
• Within-host strain competition
• Vaccination or
• Culling
• Treatment or
Sources: Galvani 2003, 2008
Trends in Disease Emergence & Integrated Research
Human pathogens
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
All Zoonotic Emerging
Helm
Protoz
Fungus
Bact
Virus
15% 19% 44%
38% 31%
30%
N=868
N=175
N=1,415
Number
Source: Taylor et al. 2001
Noro virus SARS virus
Nipah virusEbola virus
The known unknowns
• There are 50,000 known vertebrate species. Assuming each has 20 endemic viruses, there are likely over 1 million vertebrate viruses (20,000 in bats alone)
• Only 2,000 or so viruses have been described, so 99.8% of vertebrate viruses remain to be discovered
• Large potential for further emergence of zoonoses!
Insects,751,000
Protozoa,30,800
Other animals,281,000
Higher plants,248,000
Fungi,69,000 Algae,
26,900Viruses,
1,600
All organisms,total species:
1,413,000
Bacteria,4,800
Source: Daszak 2009
An integrated health agenda
Disciplines• Social anthropology• Economics• Political sciences• Agronomy• Veterinary science• Animal husbandry• Human medicine• Epidemiology & ecology• Molecular genetics• Evolutionary biology• etc....
Challenges
• Scientific fragmentation
• Competition between ‘schools’
• Institutional turfs
• Public sector vs private sector research / IP
• ‘Cost-recovery’ in public sector research
• Divide between science and application
Animal Production and Health Division
Livestock Sector Analysis, Information & Policy Branch