Agent-based modeling of bicyclist behaviour

”Enhedens navn” og

Landssamtök hjólreiðamanna, Reykjavík – July 8th, 2010

Forest & Landscape

Bernhard [email protected]

Urban and Landscape Studies

Forest & LandscapeUniversity of Copenhagen

http://www.bikeability.dk

Agent-based modeling of bicyclist behaviour

Bikeability – cities for zero emission travel and public health

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.bikeability.dk/


Forest & Landscape


Agenda

• Forest & Landscape

• What is bikeability ?

• Bikeability - cities for zero emission travel and public health

• goals / ambitions• participants• budget• timeframe • work packages

• Agent-based simulation of bicyclist behavior


Forest & Landscape


Forest & Landscape, KU

• National center at the Faculty of Life Sciences at the University of Copenhagen

• research, education and consultancy services within• forest• landscape• planning

• established 2004 through a merger of the Danish Forest and Landscape Research Institute, the Danish Forestry College, the Danida Forest Seed Centre and parts of the Department of Economics and Natural Resources of the former RVAU - the Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University of Denmark

• 2007 RVAU merged with KU and became the Faculty of Life Sciences

• 300 employees


Forest & Landscape


What is bikeability ??

http://www.bikeability.org.uk/

• bicycle proficiency

bik·abil·i·tyVariant(s): also bike·abil·i·tyFunction: noun

1. suitability for human biking

• derived from livability

http://www.bikeability.org.uk/


Forest & Landscape


Bikeability - the goals (1)

• produce applicable knowledge for planners and decision-makers

• About people (who, where, why?)• About urban environments and infrastructure• About the interface between people and

environments

• enhance the possibilities to plan for bicycling as a major mode of transport

• develop a useful bikeability concept for bikeability indices• measure change• compare neighbourhood / cities

• develop planning tools


Forest & Landscape


Bikeability - the goals (2)

• different institutions, backgrounds, disciplines, theories methods

• research -> practice

• surveys• interviews• GPS-based studies• analysis of interventions• simulation• implementation in planning • dissemination


Forest & Landscape


Bikeability - the participants

• Forest & Landscape Denmark, University of Copenhagen (4 researchers, 1 post doc researchers, 2 PhD students)

• Department of Architecture and Design, Aalborg University (3 researchers)

• Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University(1 researcher, 1 post doc researcher)

• University of Southern Denmark (1 researcher, 1 PhD student)

• Danish Cancer Society

• Danish Cycling Federation

• Delft University of Technology (the Netherlands)

• I-CE, Interface for cycling Expertise (the Netherlands)


Forest & Landscape


Bikeability - the budget & timeframe

• financed by The Danish Council for Strategic Research

• granted support: 13.000.000 DKK

274.000.000 ISK

• 2010 - 2013


Forest & Landscape


Bikeability - work packages (1)

• 5 interrelated workpackages

• WP1: Cycling behaviour and its preconditions will analyse the determinants for cycling behaviour of individuals, such as motives, lifestyles, opportunities and constraints

• WP2: Environmental determinants for bikeability will link GIS data with objective and subjective measures of cycling in relation to the conditions of selected neighbourhoods.

• WP3: Choice modelling for simulation of bicyclist behaviour develops an agent based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate the flow of individual bicyclists in urban areas as a response to changes to the urban environment (bicycle tracks, bridges over heavy loaded traffic corridors, urban greening etc.) or the level of and attitude to bicycle transport.


Forest & Landscape


Bikeability - work packages (2)

• WP4: Interventions to the bicycling infrastructure will analyze bicycle infrastructure cases in the Danish municipalities and the Netherlands; […] that can help promote cycling significantly.

• WP5: Planning Guidance and Dissemination serves the purpose of presenting the projects methodological advances and conclusion.

Inger Grønkjær Ulrich


Forest & Landscape


Agent-based modeling of bicyclist behaviour

• what is an agent-based model

• agent-based models of bicyclists

• agent-based models within participatory planning


Forest & Landscape


What is an agent-based model ?

• computational models for simulation of actions of autonomous agents

• attempt to re-create and predict complex phenomena

• emergence from a lower level to a higher level

• K.I.S.S. - keep it simple and stupid (Axelrod 1997)

• like computer games


Forest & Landscape


What is agent-based modeling ?

ABMS

POLITICIANPLANNER

CITIZEN

• easily understandable by laymen


Forest & Landscape


Agent-based models of bicyclists

• model the city

• bicycle path network

• road network

• built environment

• green areas

• model origins

• where do people live

• model different types of bicyclists

• different speeds

• different preferences in route choice

• different styles of biking

• model destinations

• where do people go to


Forest & Landscape


Agent-based models of bicyclists

• run a simulation

• change any of the model components


Forest & Landscape


Agent-based models within participatory planning

• what will happen if the bicycle path changes ?

www.reykjavik.is

http://www.reykjavik.is/


Forest & Landscape



• what will happen if we build interventions like bicycle bridges ?

www.reykjavik.is



Forest & Landscape



• what will happen if the safety situation for bicyclists changes ?

www.reykjavik.is



Forest & Landscape



• what will happen if we invest in bicycle infrastructure ?


Forest & Landscape



• what will happen if 80% of the motorists choose to bike on 90 % of their trips under 5km.

• what will happen if 10% of the motorists choose to bike on 50 % of their trips under 5km.

Mikael Colville-Andersen / Copenhagenize

http://www.flickr.com/photos/16nine/


Forest & Landscape



• what will happen if we allow bikes on buses or other public transport ?

http://www.ctc.org.uk/DesktopDefault.aspx?TabID=4578

http://www.ctc.org.uk/DesktopDefault.aspx?TabID=4578


Forest & Landscape



• what will happen if the city gets extended or gets denser in certain areas ?


Forest & Landscape


THANK YOU

[email protected]

http://www.bikeability.dk



Education

Agent-based modeling of bicyclist behaviour