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Against the flow: Against the flow: new power dynamics in the Nile Basinnew power dynamics in the Nile Basin
EPD SeminarsKing’s College London1st November 2011
Ana Elisa CascãoAna Elisa CascãoStockholm International Water InstituteStockholm International Water Institute
The Nile River BasinThe Nile River Basin
THE REGIONTHE REGION
10+1 riparian states160 million inhabitantsUnderdeveloped (but growing) economiesConflict-stricken regionLow levels of regional integrationComplex hydropolitics
THE REGIONTHE REGION
10+1 riparian states160 million inhabitantsUnderdeveloped (but growing) economiesConflict-stricken regionLow levels of regional integrationComplex hydropolitics
abc of Nile Basin Hydropolitics
• Uneven distribution
• Inequitable utilisation
• Water = Politics• Water = National Security• Water = Sovereignty
• Power asymmetries• Hydro-Hegemony
• Problematic water agreements
• Past: conflicts• Water-Sharing:
political priority
SECURITISATION
HYDRO-SOVEREIGNTY COOPERATION
Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011
Egypt:‘Hydraulic state’ still expandingMonopoly of the Nile watersStronger and more diversified economyMonolithic and stable political systemSupport of international community
Upstream:Agriculture-based economies (rainfed)Weaker but growing economiesShadow of conflicts still presentChanging geopolitics
Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011
Changing realpolitik: new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ...
Changing realpolitik: new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ...
‘Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources
‘Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources
Regional integration:Towards economic
multilaterism
Regional integration:Towards economic
multilaterism
Unilateralism:Unilateral hydraulic
development
Unilateralism:Unilateral hydraulic
development
The Hydropolitical chessboard pre-2011The Hydropolitical chessboard pre-2011
Official ‘dyad’
UpstreamBloc
2011: Tipping point(s) in the 2011: Tipping point(s) in the hydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basinhydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basin
Implications of the several ‘events’?Implications of the several ‘events’?
Republic South Sudan:Republic South Sudan:Referendum and independenceReferendum and independence
Egypt: Revolution and Fall of MubarakEgypt: Revolution and Fall of Mubarak
Burundi signs the Cooperative Burundi signs the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA)Framework Agreement (CFA)
Ethiopia: Grand Renaissance DamEthiopia: Grand Renaissance Dam and Tripartite Committee and Tripartite Committee
Nile Basin:Nile Basin:The future is not what it used to be!The future is not what it used to be!
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