Upload
ssa-kpi
View
391
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
AACIMP 2011 Summer School. Science of Global Challenges Stream. Lecture by Satoshi Konishi.
Citation preview
Satoshi Konishi
Institute for Sustainability Science,
Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University
Aug 13, 2011
Advanced technology for
sustainable development - Analysis of fusion from sustainability -
Contents - technological, environmental,biolobical and social risk
- radiation, tritium, cancer and life
- Sustainability issue
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Question:
Can technology make people happy?
-people (individual) regards energy as a risk for their life.
Energy ( in fact, all the technology) must be analyzed for risk and
benefit.
What does technology have to do?
- to avoid risks for sustainability
But, the researchers do not understand how their work would
DAMAGE the environment, person, and social system.
- regardless of the source, energy itself is not sustainable.
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
・All the R&D programs are evaluated from the aspect of social acceptance. -All the energy technologies are evaluated from the
aspect of future social risk.
- “Effect” cannot always be measured in monetary terms.
- Energy supply affects environment, public and society
through various paths other than market. (Externality)
→Investment for research and development can be justified
from the expected effect to the future society.
Future energy must respond to the
demand of the society.
Evaluation of Energy International Symposium on Global Sustainability
Institute of Sustainable Science
risk of energy generation
No. 1, 2, 3 in operation,
No. 4, 5, 6 inspection/maintenance
14:46 3/11 Great East Japan Earthquake
All reactors stopped. External power lost.
Emergency Core Cooling System Activated
Tsunami(~15m) attacked
15:41 Emergency powers lost,
16:36 Cooling lost. After heat of fuels damages the core.
20:50 Evacuation started
Reaction with fuel and water generate Hydrogen.
15:36 3/12 Hydrogen explosion destroyed the building of No1 reactor.
11:01 3/14 Hydrogen explosion destroyed the building of No3 reactor.
06:10 3/15 Building of No2 reactor exploded.. Fire at No4 reactor
Damaged Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Materials by Dr. S. Machi
Source: The 2011 Pacific Coast of Tohoku Pacific Earthquake and the Seismic Damage of the NPPs, p9, Report to IAEA from NISA and JENES, 4th April, 2011
Overview of Mark-I Type BWR (Fukushima Unit-1, 2, 3, 4 and 5)
Reactor Building
(R/B)
Pressure
Containment
Vessel (PCV)
Dry Well
Spent Fuel Pool
Reactor Pressure
Vessel (RPV)
Suppression Chamber Source: http://nei.cachefly.net/static/images/BWR_illastration.jpg
Source: The 2011 Pacific Coast of Tohoku Pacific Earthquake and the Seismic Damage of the NPPs, p20, Report to IAEA from NISA and JENES, 4th April, 2011
Major Events at Unit No.1 (4/4)
-Injection of Seawater using by Fire Pump
-Venting of S/C for Depressurizing PCV
Venting of S/C in order
to depressurize the
PCV
Seawater was poured
into the RPV using by
the exiting fire pump
Source: The 2011 Pacific Coast of Tohoku Pacific Earthquake and the Seismic Damage of the NPPs, p34, Report to IAEA from NISA and JENES, 4th April, 2011
Accident Situation at the Spent Fuel Pool
Lack of Cooling Capability
Decrease of Water Level
in the Spent Fuel Pool
Exposing of Fuel Rods
Generation of Hydrogen and Explosion
Fuel Failure
R/B Isolation Cooling Water
System
Effect is evaluated as dose(Sv)
e.g. 1 mSv/y normal, public
20mSv, 100mSv…
Facility controls
radioactive
emission (Bq/y)
Radioactive Emission control
Ground water
soil plant
plume
environment
confinement
facility dose
Back ground
Site boundary Sea water
fish
Minimize unnecessary dose
As Low As Practically Achieved
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Analyzing plume International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Tokyo
0.04
(220km) Fukushima
1.49
(61km)
Radiation level in atmosphere by prefecture
May 8, 2011 (Unit : μSv/h)
Hokkaido
0.04
(630km)
Miyagi
0.078
(90km)
Sources : Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and
Technology
Fukushima prefectural government
FukushimaⅠ
NPS FukushimaⅡN
PS
Osaka
0.08
(400km)
Iwaki
0.25
(43km)
200km
100km
Background level; Tokyo:
0.028-0.079
Activity on the surface
Surveyed.
Nuclides analyzed.
Cumulative external dose
Estimated.
(life style considered.)
- Children dose <10mSv
Nuclides in the environment • Behavior of radio-nuclides is well understood for fission facilities, mainly by plume model. • Radio activity is released by the accident • Nuclides diffuses as “plume” and deposit and go away. External dose estimated. • Some nuclides are enriched by biological process and
food chain. • Dose is estimated from the activity. • Risks on the health is estimated from the collective dose. Radiation may kill. But how likely is it?
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Radiation risk
• We (life-forms ) on the earth have lived with radiation for billions of years.
• Radiation safety is well controlled, but
• Modern science and technology have significantly changed our dose.
…..fusion may change it again.
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Environmental tritium, history
1.Natural production by cosmic ray
Discovered in 1949 in the environment
2.Atmospheric nuclear tests in 1950s to 1960s
First bomb in 1945(Nevada)、first fusion bomb in 1954
Atmospheric nuclear test ban treaty in 1963
(global fallout, tracer for air mass, seawater etc)
3.Peaceful use of nuclear energy
Nuclear power station in Japan(55)、world(434)、nuclear fuel treatment facility
4.Nuclear fusion reactor (a huge amount, local emission)
15 Prof. Momoshima Kyushu University
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
EBq=1018
1000MW
(~5kg)
4. Fusion
reactor
Environmental tritium
O+n —> H+
1.Cosmic ray
1-1.3 EBq
14 N+n —> 3 H+ 12 C 16 3 14 N
16
3. Nuclear stations
0.02 EBq y-1
(0.01-0.02)
Earth crust
6 Li+n—> 3 H+ 4 He
238 U+n—> 3 H+Products
2. Nuclear bomb
240 EBq (185-240)
3. Consumer products
0.4 EBq y-1
(0.3-0.4)
Natural T≒2.7 kg
World inventory (2010)
1-1.3 EBq (1) + 17 EBq (13-17)
Prof. Momoshima Kyushu University
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
0
50
100
150
200
250
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Bq/L
Tritium in the Water in Japan
17
Fallout from
nuclear
detonation
We experienced
200 times high
Tritium level.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 Tri
tiu
m c
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
(B
q/L
)
Fukuoka, Japan
year
Prof. Momoshima Kyushu University
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
44424038363432
1982 river 1983 lake 2005 river 2005 lake
co
ncen
tra
tio
n(B
q/L
)
latitude
Tritium in the Water in Japan 2
Prof. Momoshima Kyushu University
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
19
Fukuoka,
japan
1
10
100
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Cedar Wine Rain
Co
ncen
trati
on
(B
q/L
)
Year
Environmental tritium is trapped by plants, Prof. Momoshima Kyushu University
Effect is evaluated as dose(Sv)
e.g. 1 mSv/y normal, public
20mSv, 100mSv…
Facility controls
radioactive
emission (Bq/y)
Radioactive Emission control
Ground water
soil plant
plume
environment
confinement
facility dose
Back ground
Site boundary Sea water
fish
Minimize unnecessary dose
As Low As Practically Achieved
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Nuclides in the environment
• Behavior of radio-nuclides is well understood for fission facilities • Major concern is accident • Nuclides diffuses as “plume” and deposit and go away. • Some nuclides are enriched by biological process and
food chain. • Dose is easily estimated from the activity. • Isotopic contents in the environment is not usually a
problem. (---All different for tritium!)
Tutorial course International Symposium on Global Sustainability
Institute of Sustainable Science
Impact pathway of nuclides
Cause cancer?
F A C I L I T Y
D I F F U S I O N W I N D
S H A L L O W S O I L
D E E P S O I L
D O S E E F F E C T
I N H A L A T I O N
S K I N A B S O R P T I O N
I N J E S T I O N
F I S H
N O R M A L / A C C I D E N T A L
NUCLIDE
R E L E A S E
P L U M E
A T M O S P H E R E A T M O S P H E R E
S U R F A C E S O I L P L A N T
BODY P L A N T SURFACE
G R A Z I N G A N I M A L
H U M A N B O D Y
E F F E C T I V E D O S E E Q U I V A L E N T
D R I N K I N G W A T E R
D R Y
D E P O S I T I O N
W E T D E P O S I T I O N W A S H O U T
H U M A N B O D Y DNA
S U R F A C E W A T E R
Understanding the impact pathway
Is required to evaluate the effect.
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Tritium in the environment • Tritiated water is a major concern • Many of the facilities discharge by normal operation. • Tritium is diluted by natural water. • Biological processes changes chemical forms. i.e. H2 – HTO – OBT (organically bound tritium) • Natural background and environmental recycling
• Specific for food, environment, culture and habits • Dose may not be a good measure of damage --range of beta is very short. (~0.5mm)
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Radiation dose
World average Japanese average
medical
natural
Fall out
jett flight etc.
natural
medical Fall out
Power plant etc.
other.
Fall out : falling radioactive materials from
nuclear detonation test
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
(mEURO/kWh) (ExternE 1999)
Risk of generation technology International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Annual deaths worldwide from
various causes
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006
“environmentally friendly” energy kills.
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
2006
Distances
travelled to
collect
fuelwood in
rural Tanzania;
the average
load is around
20 kg
がん死亡のリスク
• radiation comes from medical and natural sources.
• controlled risks cannot be the major reason of cancer
Cause of cancers
Dolland Peto, 1981
Cancer risk International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Cause of cancer deaths
Geophysical (incl. radon)
medical treatment
Industrial
products
pollution
occupation
al birth
Food additives
Food
infection
smoking
alcohol
Carcinogenic foods
• carcinogenesis is evaluated experimentally, with analysis
based on LNT.
Foods can cause cancers by their ingredients
Ames and Gold, 1998
Mainly natural
Foods can also prevent cancer, that is not considered here.
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Comparison of risk
Actions to increase the death risk by 1/1000000
wilson, 1979
Wine 500cc hepatocirrhosis
2 days in New York Air pollution
16km by bicycle accident
480km by car accident
1600km flight accident
10000km flight Cosmic ray
2 months in brick building Radon (natural)
X-ray examination Radiation dose
2 months Living with smoker cancer
30 cans diet coke cancer
150 year living in 30kmfrom
Nuclear plant Radiation dose
2 months living in Denver, CO. radiation
1 year drinking tap water halogen
1.4 cigarette cancer
3 hours in coal mine accident
One safe action
can cause
another risk.
Some of the
safety
measures are
unreasonable.
Artificial risks
are well
controlled now.
Fukushima accident 100~1000 times larger
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Risk of Generation Technology
• Hydro:Dam construction.
Dam distruction in China(1975)。
• Fire:Explosion, drop,
mechanical. Coal mining.
Pollution.
• Biomass:Air Pollution, timber.
• Nuclear:Mihama,5. Uranium
mining, Radon from U.
Chernobyl 28+19, cancer 15.
possible cancer 100000?
• Solar:drop from roofs
Electricity Kills Coal – world average 161
Coal – China 278
Coal – USA 15
Oil 36 (36% of world energy)
Natural Gas 4
Peat 12
Solar (rooftop) 0.44
Wind 0.15
Hydro 0.10 (europe)
Hydro - world 1.4
(171,000 Banqiao dead)
Nuclear 0.04
(incl. Chernobyl 1986
assuming 4000 death)
[death/Twh] (by WHO data,etc.)
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Risk for death
• 1/3 died of cancer
• Suicide and accident, other
than sickness
• Young people are killed by
accident, and themselves
(in US, murder is a major
cause.)
Causes of death in Japan
Institute of Sustainable Science Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University
Deaty per year per 100,000
厚生労働省、人口動態統計
1980 2002 tuberculosis 5.5 1.8 cancer 139.1 241.7 diabetes 7.3 10 cardiac 106.2 121 hipertension 13.7 4.5 stroke 139.5 103.4 pneumonia 28.4 69.4 asthma 5.5 3 Stomach ulcer
4.8 3.9
hepatitis 16.3 12.8 Renal failure 6.1 14.4 senility 27.6 18 accident 25.1 30.7 traffic 11.4 9.3 suicide 17.7 23.8 total 621.4 779.6
Death risk
Actions to increase the death risk by 1/1000000
Institute of Sustainable Science Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University
wilson, 1979
Wine 500cc hepatocirrhosis 2 days in New York Air pollution 16km by bicycle accident 480km by car accident 1600km flight accident 10000km flight Cosmic ray 2 months in brick building Radon (natural) X-ray examination Radiation dose 2 months Living with smoker cancer 30 cans diet coke cancer 150 year living in 30kmfrom Nuclear plant Radiation dose 2 months living in Denver, CO. radiation 1 year drinking tap water halogen 1.4 cigarette cancer 3 hours in coal mine accident
One safe action
can cause another
risk.
Some of the
safety measures
are unreasonable.
Artifical risks
are well
controlled now.
risk of energy supply
Shortage / blackout risk Strict electricity saving and peak shifting are planned.
Blackout is unpredictable, but demand/supply balance is
reported by real time announcement.
Local generation / Storage will mitigate the difficulty.
Long term strategy Renewables are expected and will be strongly supported.
Use of fire-power is not favored.
Vulnerability increases. Robust grid is needed by supporting
instability of the sources.
Energy supply Issue International Symposium on Global Sustainability
Institute of Sustainable Science
Electric Grid in Japan –Structure –
Hokkaido 5,345MW
579MW
Tokyo 64,300MW
1,356MW
Chubu 27,500MW
1,380MW
Hokuriku 5,508MW
540MW
Kansai 33,060MW
1,180MW
Chugoku 12,002MW
820MW
Shikoku 5,925MW
890MW
Kyushu 17,061MW
1,180MW
Tohoku 14,489MW
825MW
600MW
600MW
300MW
West Japan Grid 60Hz, ~100GW
Utility Name Max. demand (~2003) Largest Unit (Nuclear)
DC connection
East Japan Grid 50Hz, ~80GW
Comb structure due to geographical reason
~50GW
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Physics Today, vol.55, No.4
(2002)
Giga Blackout
-0.35
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
time(sec)
frequency(H
z)23MW/sec
77MW/sec
230MW/sec
All the generators on the grids are synchronized
→ Exactly same amount generated as demanded.
Sudden increase of demand or unstable generator
• Demands exceed generation capacity
• Frequency drops (~0.1%)
• Load to the generators
• Generator disconnected
Chain reaction kills the grid.
→unstable renewables can
initiate the blackout.
Frequency drop by load
Small grid, large load,
Fast change should be
Avoided.
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Fire
Hydro
Nuclear
Fire(Coal)
0 6 12 18 24(h)
variable
.
• For near term, leveling of
the load is important.
• Local generators, co-
generation and batteries
preferred.
• Increased renewable
jeopardizes grid
• For future, substitute of
fire power needed.
→only load leveling power
is preferred.
Hydro
Solar
Wind
Load
Leveling
needed
Daily Peaks
Hydro
Base
load
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
・unpredictable change of generating power of renewable is large
・time constant of seconds
・controlled power to compensate this change needed
・connecting to grid decreases amplitude but not time constant
・fire power can provide only slow change (~5%/min)
4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.85/14 (Cloudy)― Insolation Intensity
― DC Power
DC
Pow
er
[kW
]
Inso
lation Int
ensi
ty [
kW/m
2]
Inso
lation Int
ensi
ty [
kW/m
2]
Time
-0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
4/15 4/30 5/15 5/30 6/14 6/290
20406080
100120140160180200220240
Spring (4/1-6/30)
Date
Ele
ctrica
l Ene
rgy
[kW
h/da
y]
Change of solar in a day
Required Stabilizing
power
Fluctuation of renewable
Daily change of solar
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Future low carbon Systems
Battery
Large scale grid
Fuel Cells
generators
Local systems
Solar cell
Fuel
Electricity must be powered by
Carbon-free sources nuclear
Both large grid and local
systems are needed.
Fire
(fade out)
fusion
PHV,EV
Battery, generators and
fuel cells Stabilizes
fluctuation by renewables.
Large scale supply of fuels for
Fuel cells needed.
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Power
[kW]
Max.pow
er[kW]
capacity[
kWh] units area[m2] Vol.[m3]
Solar 633 566.2 - - 4740 -
NaS-1 364.7 420 2625 7 - 16.7 SOFC - 988 - - - 5.6
計 998 1974 2625 7 4740 22.2
0 4 8 12 16 20 24-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Time [h]
SOFC+NaS+Solar①, Summer, Fine
Large scale grid
SOFC
NaS-2
NaS-1
Solar
Ele
ctrica
l Ene
rgy
[kW
h/h]
0 4 8 12 16 20 24-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Time [h]
SOFC+NaS+Solar①, Summer, Rain
Large scale grid
SOFC
NaS-2
NaS-1
Solar
Ele
ctrica
l Ene
rgy
[kW
h/h]
Carbon-free elcecticty systems International Symposium on Global Sustainability
Institute of Sustainable Science
・All the risks and benefits of the technology can be analyzed from the Externality aspects.
・Many of those effects are predictable, and converted to monetary terms.
・Some of the risks are evaluated as the death probability from statistics.
・Investment for technology development must consider the effect of the product from this risk and benefit analysis, and risk mitigation cost.
・Reasonable investment for the development and mitigation/prevention can be evaluated quantitatively.
Externality analysis
For the governance of technology
Technology and its effect are predictable, and reasonable investment can
be planned,
However, many of the development and risk mitigation are far from it.
we can find many bad examples.
Governing risks of technology International Symposium on Global Sustainability
Institute of Sustainable Science