1 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI

Addressing Great Lakes Issues With

Biophysical M odels

M ark Rowe Assistant Research Scientist

SNRE CILER University of M ichigan

2 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI

M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, J. Wang, H.A. Vanderploeg. 2015. J. Great Lakes Research, 41(S3):49-65

Warm and cool climate meteorological scenarios

Measured quagga mussel clearance rates

3-D hydrodynamic model (FVCOM) vertical mixing

1-D phytoplankton - quagga mussel model

Cool spring Warm spring

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Quagga mussels have greater impact on Lake M ichigan spring bloom under warm spring climate scenario

3 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI

1994-95 2000 2005 2010

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M.D. Rowe, D.R. Obenour, T.F. Nalepa, H.A. Vanderploeg, F. Yousef, W.C. Kerfoot. 2015. Freshwater Biology, 60(11): 2270-85

Chlorophyll depletion in Lake M ichigan is spatially associated with quagga mussel filter feeding intensity

4 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI

Separating the effects of quagga mussels and nutrient loads on Lake Michigan chlorophyll

April 2010 Lake Michigan Chlorophyll concentration, μg/L Satellite | 3D Biophysical model

Effect of phosphorus loads

Effect of dreissenid mussels

5 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI

Improved Lake Erie short term HAB forecast

Improved model simulates vertical distribution of buoyant cyanobacteria

Nowcast Five-day forecast

M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, T. T. Wynne, R. P. Stumpf, D. L. Fanslow, K. Kijanka, H. A. Vanderploeg, T. W. Davis. J. Geophysical Research, in prep

Time, days

Dep

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