View
246
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
This presentation is supplemental to the 2040 Socioeconomic Study completed by Transport Studio at the request of the Valdosta-Lowndes Metropolitan Planning Organization. This was a special presentation to the Greater Lowndes Planning Commission. More information is on our website at www.sgrc.us/transportation.
Citation preview
Valdosta-Lowndes MPO2040
Socioeconomic Data StudyGreater Lowndes Planning Commission
October 28, 2013
Agenda
• Why?• What?• How?• Results!
Why do you need socioeconomic data?
• Planning for the future• The need for infrastructure improvements • The need for services• Federal and State regulations• MPO planning process• Qualified local government
• State legislation has greatly reduced comprehensive planning requirements• Data collection not required/unspecified• Land use element required for communities with zoning• VLMPO LRTP serves as transportation element• Valdosta is only city required to have housing element
What kind of data?
• Population, housing, and employment• Base and existing year data• 2010 base year • Today’s updates
• 2040 horizon year projections• Interim year projections
Planning Data
Transportation• Population and households• Income
• Employment• Service• Retail• Manufacturing• Wholesale
• Student enrollment
Comprehensive planning• Housing• Gender• Age• Race• Educational attainment• Labor force
How? Data Collection and Projection Process
• Base year data• Determine horizon year
control totals• Distribute growth• Traffic analysis zones or TAZs• Census tracts• Census block groups
• Verify and revise• Develop interim year data
Various Population Projections
Horizon Year Population – Lowndes County
Major Assumptions
• Projections based on historic change• DCA used to provide projections based on 1980 to 2000 Census data• DCA projections assumed variables are independent of each other• Transport Studio developed new projections
• Demographic characteristics will follow historic trend• Based on distribution in population
• For example, racial composition• Based on share of all households
• For example, housing types
• Household and employment growth will follow population growth trend• Ratio of jobs to housing in region• Kinds of jobs in region
Lowndes County Demographics
Population
Households
Housing Units
Total Employment
2010 109,233 39,747 43,921 54,340
2040 149,290 60,686 63,473 76,150
Households and employment follow population growth trend in the region
Sample Population Data and Projection
Sample Housing Data and Projection
Developable land by Growth Area and other
parameters
Future population and
employment distribution
Land already developed -or- not suitable for development
Land suitable for development
A
B
D
C
Distribute Growth to Zones, Tracts, Block Groups
A. Growth Areas within zone boundary
B. Suitable and available for development
C. Developable acres within each Growth Area are assigned jobs or housing
D. Developable acres with access to water or sewer service may be assigned jobs or housing
Population 2010
Population Density 2010
Population Density 2040
Employment Density 2010
Employment Density 2040
Findings
• Identified Growth Areas will accommodate most growth by 2040• Some households assigned to areas zoned residential with existing access to
water or sewer service• Service jobs assigned to areas with existing access to water or sewer service
based on zoning
• Industrial Growth Areas contain more land than will be needed by 2040 for projected manufacturing and wholesale jobs
Recommendations
• Consistent Census boundaries and traffic analysis zone boundaries• Update Census boundaries to reflect real life conditions if applicable• Adjust zone boundaries as needed
• Evaluate Growth Areas during plan update(s)• Evaluate land use scenarios with VLMPO travel demand model• Evaluate policies and development patterns through comprehensive planning
process
• Continue coordination with MAFB and other major employers