Cape Cod & IslandsSchool Enrollment, Census and K-12 Planning

K12 Planning: Cape Cod & IslandsIssues

Decreasing Population of School Age ChildrenCompetition

Public School Choice Charter Schools

Private SchoolsDetermining Future Trends for Local

EnrollmentPlanning to Appropriately Meet Local Needs

Historical Student PopulationAll Cape (No Islands - No Charter)

FY PK UG K G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 Total

1988 231 200 2383 2397 2322 2215 2155 2058 1949 1939 2110 2245 2141 2223 2233 28,801

1989 281 169 2361 2605 2282 2352 2250 2206 2110 1955 1982 2220 2067 2040 2043 28,923

1990 336 197 2446 2619 2531 2320 2378 2263 2234 2123 1978 2103 2113 1964 1886 29,491

1991 312 193 2546 2627 2580 2554 2341 2398 2262 2193 2151 2076 1964 2026 1814 30,037

1992 351 201 2573 2725 2589 2591 2608 2360 2395 2241 2222 2229 2003 1895 1893 30,876

1993 302 181 2437 2549 2544 2461 2414 2410 2194 2173 2036 2192 1990 1768 1670 29,321

1994 472 132 2611 2583 2564 2595 2477 2476 2457 2203 2202 2191 2113 1954 1685 30,715

1995 531 72 2554 2707 2645 2593 2654 2513 2539 2445 2231 2414 2057 2040 1786 31,781

1996 528 114 2605 2731 2685 2663 2603 2667 2459 2472 2437 2394 2225 1986 1903 32,472

1997 542 97 2454 2767 2691 2676 2658 2565 2527 2401 2441 2581 2276 2131 1762 32,569

1998 575 71 2318 2570 2754 2690 2718 2656 2566 2528 2416 2640 2393 2113 1911 32,919

1999 613 74 2214 2471 2577 2780 2749 2745 2635 2576 2568 2602 2459 2253 1918 33,234

2000 598 55 2290 2378 2480 2628 2800 2187 2675 2647 2599 2756 2377 2300 2073 32,843

2001 370 0 2231 2390 2356 2505 2639 2183 2702 2677 2674 2889 2538 2279 2140 32,573

2002 568 0 1948 2304 2315 2364 2472 2088 2680 2680 2617 2894 2552 2329 2045 31,856

2003 572 0 2103 2235 2275 2356 2350 1955 2533 2696 2689 3036 2570 2446 2168 31,984

2004 619 8 2050 2184 2208 2300 2351 1894 1894 2443 2683 2915 2729 2458 2209 30,945

2005 706 13 1879 2013 2082 2109 2199 1825 1828 2396 2440 2875 2656 2582 2228 29,831

2006 712 13 1850 1919 1967 2070 2088 1747 1785 2182 2367 2646 2616 2515 2354 28,831

2007 690 25 1888 1921 1873 1962 2046 1633 1704 2204 2173 2615 2428 2528 2352 28,042

2008 726 31 1817 1914 1876 1861 1941 1661 1569 2099 2204 2347 2446 2453 2374 27,319

2009 695 31 1784 1900 1890 1847 1907 1579 1586 1987 2099 2340 2271 2372 2170 26,458

2010 742 44 1807 1804 1865 1913 1544 1576 1964 1980 2011 2339 2289 2210 2143 26,231

Cape Historical Enrollment Trends

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20100

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Enrollment (No Islands, No Charter)

Enrollment (No Islands, No Charter)

Cape Enrollment TrendsAll Cape (Charter – Including Barnstable Horace Mann Charters)

FY PK UG K G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 Total

1988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1989 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1990 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1991 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1992 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1993 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1994 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1995 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1996 0 0 81 53 48 27 21 22 108 76 76 0 0 35 29 576

1997 0 0 66 70 60 63 37 38 91 73 65 5 0 34 34 636

1998 0 0 72 69 69 80 78 37 101 95 71 12 4 35 33 756

1999 0 163 72 74 79 82 88 83 93 100 96 39 65 108 61 1,203

2000 0 0 0 6 13 12 14 595 69 72 78 168 121 215 79 1,442

2001 0 0 14 9 14 13 14 627 71 72 71 113 111 278 83 1,490

2002 0 0 13 126 28 14 12 516 74 77 74 182 93 114 96 1,419

2003 0 0 13 12 13 10 14 539 74 73 82 150 156 238 133 1,507

2004 0 0 13 13 12 14 10 537 676 80 74 159 121 313 153 2,175

2005 0 0 82 91 72 89 83 641 589 123 83 227 174 228 149 2,631

2006 0 0 116 96 96 95 95 640 823 267 117 181 185 287 138 3,136

2007 0 0 71 73 15 13 15 602 845 337 256 249 167 176 185 3,004

2008 0 0 72 75 73 14 14 564 817 360 314 235 191 151 170 3,050

2009 0 0 81 70 74 72 16 585 821 363 313 228 270 198 168 3,259

2010 0 0 72 107 111 100 437 389 90 94 94 122 128 106 88 1,938

Cohort Trends – Student Population

Age 0-3 Age 1-4 Age 2-5 K-2 1-3 2-4 3-5 4-6 6-8 7-9 8-10 9-11 10-120

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000Cohort Enrollment 2010-2011

Cohort Enrollment

Cohort Trends – Student Population

Age 0-3 Age 1-4 Age 2-5 K-2 1-3 2-4 3-5 4-6 6-8 7-9 8-10 9-11 10-120

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Chart Title

Cohort Enrollment

Cohorts for Future Student Population2010-2011 Data

Age 0-3 Age 1-4 Age 2-5 K-2 1-3 2-4 3-5 4-6 6-8 7-9 8-10 9-11 10-12 HS

1,250 1,304 1,299 1164 1224 1245 1209 1217 1226 1258 1318 1304 1235 1691

522 531 519 525 534 537 545 580 587 564 521 493 478 654

193 194 214 217 247 255 251 159            

101 107 97 143 144 153 163 158 151 160 163 156 139 195

942 942 942 773 774 788 800 802 809 764 716 683 686 906

85 84 85 104 113 121 121 77            

769 783 797 894 897 893 865 845 838 819 739 712 710 965

260 283 296 308 307 329 326 324 289 283 273 269 272 368

384 390 388 426 428 408 414 395 407 430 409 400 384 539

88 99 101 86 82 84 86 54            

32 36 35 26 29 24 29 23 20 29 33 35 37 51

516 553 604 725 783 820 837 826 891 911 875 810 767 1054

33 36 40 58 64 53 52 48 16          

58 52 46 72 58 51 56 39            

              180 563 595 664 741 756 968

                  184 359 532 499 683

                  184 350 512 488 672

                  110 224 322 291 401

              76 228 152 76      

5233 5394 5463 5521 5684 5761 5754 5803 6025 6443 6720 6969 6742 9147

75.09% 77.40% 78.39% 79.22% 81.56% 82.67% 82.57% 83.27% 86.45% 92.45% 96.43% 100.00% 96.74%

Cape Cod School Choice Trends (2010-2011)

Cape Districts

---Receiving---

---Sending--

-

FTE FTE

FY Pupils Pupils

2002 354.56 346.96

2003 388.35 394.17

2004 455.03 431.80

2005 484.78 438.21

2006 570.70 508.93

2007 580.96 535.76

2008 699.51 649.48

2009 737.37 736.26

2010 817.56 794.11

2011 933.00 911.002002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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Choice - In

Choice - Out

Charter - Out

District

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School Choice & Charter ImpactFTE - In FTE - Out FTE

FYChoice -Pupils

Choice -Pupils Charter

Barnstable 77.5 74.0 100.0

Bourne 42.0 30.0 44.0

Brewster 0.0 16.0 0.0

Chatham 203.0 55.0 7.0

DY 70.0 303.5 137.0

Eastham 0.0 9.0 0.0

Falmouth 35.0 23.5 54.0

Harwich 147.0 194.5 35.0

Mashpee 4.0 46.0 24.0

Nauset 240.0 34.0 98.0

Orleans 0.0 1.0 0.0

Provincetown 25.0 43.0 9.0

Sandwich 21.0 38.5 59.0

Truro 23.0 2.0 8.0

Wareham 45.5 31.0 17.0

Wellfleet 0.0 10.0 0.0

Other Influences Upon Public School District Enrollment Parochial / Religious School Enrollment

Pope Pius X– Yarmouth (215) St. Margaret’s – Buzzards Bay (265) Pope John Paul II – Hyannis (approx. 235) Trinity Christian Academy (112) Holy Trinity Regional School - Harwich (128) St. Francis Xavier – Hyannis (215) Veritas Academy – West Barnstable (37) Heritage Christian Academy – East Falmouth (53) Bayberry Christian School – Osterville (7) Faith Christian Academy – Hyannis (21)

Private School Enrollment Cape Cod Academy (337) Falmouth Academy (190) Waldorf School – Cotuit (98) The Laurel School – Brewster (?) Academy of Early Learning - Hyannis (118)

Planning for Enrollment ChangesNext Steps

Data Gathering & ReviewDiscussion - LocalDialogue – Regional with Common “Terms”

What does it look like?Regionalization?Consolidation?Collaboration?