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Financial Success Through Financial Success Through Environmental Leadership Environmental Leadership Better Investing Better Investing Investor Investor s Fair s Fair April 26, 2008 April 26, 2008

xcel energy Better_Investing_April2008

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Page 1: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Financial Success Through Financial Success Through Environmental LeadershipEnvironmental Leadership

Better InvestingBetter InvestingInvestorInvestor’’s Fairs FairApril 26, 2008April 26, 2008

Page 2: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

This material includes forwardThis material includes forward--looking statements that are subject to looking statements that are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Such forwardcertain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Such forward--looking looking statements include projected earnings, cash flows, capital statements include projected earnings, cash flows, capital expenditures and other statements and are identified in this docexpenditures and other statements and are identified in this document ument by the words by the words ““anticipate,anticipate,”” ““estimate,estimate,”” ““expect,expect,”” ““projected,projected,””““objective,objective,”” ““outlook,outlook,”” ““possible,possible,”” ““potentialpotential”” and similar and similar expressions. Actual results may vary materially. Factors that expressions. Actual results may vary materially. Factors that could could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not lcause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to: imited to: general economic conditions, including the availability of credigeneral economic conditions, including the availability of credit, t, actions of rating agencies and their impact on capital expendituactions of rating agencies and their impact on capital expenditures; res; business conditions in the energy industry; competitive factors;business conditions in the energy industry; competitive factors;unusual weather; effects of geopolitical events, including war aunusual weather; effects of geopolitical events, including war and acts nd acts of terrorism; changes in federal or state legislation; regulatioof terrorism; changes in federal or state legislation; regulation; actions n; actions of accounting regulatory bodies; and other risk factors listed fof accounting regulatory bodies; and other risk factors listed from rom time to time by Xcel Energy in reports filed with the SEC, inclutime to time by Xcel Energy in reports filed with the SEC, including ding Exhibit 99.01 to Xcel EnergyExhibit 99.01 to Xcel Energy’’s report on Form 10s report on Form 10--K for year 2007.K for year 2007.

Safe HarborSafe Harbor

Page 3: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Traditional RegulationTraditional Regulation

Operate in 8 StatesOperate in 8 States

Combination UtilityCombination UtilityElectric 84% of net incomeElectric 84% of net incomeGas 16% of net incomeGas 16% of net income

CustomersCustomers3.3 million electric3.3 million electric1.8 million gas1.8 million gas

2007 Financial Statistics2007 Financial StatisticsNI Ongoing: $612 million NI Ongoing: $612 million NI GAAP: $577 millionNI GAAP: $577 millionAssets: $23 billionAssets: $23 billionEquity ratio: 43%Equity ratio: 43%

Company ProfileCompany Profile

NSPNSP--WisconsinWisconsin6% of net income*6% of net income*

NSPNSP--MinnesotaMinnesota40% of net income*40% of net income*

SPSSPS5% of net income*5% of net income*

PSCoPSCo50% of net income*50% of net income*

2007 EPS Ongoing: $1.43, GAAP: $1.352007 EPS Ongoing: $1.43, GAAP: $1.352007 Dividend $0.92 per share annualized2007 Dividend $0.92 per share annualized

* Percentages based on 2007 net income* Percentages based on 2007 net income

Page 4: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Xcel Energy Corporate StrategyXcel Energy Corporate Strategy

Achieve annual EPS growth of 5 Achieve annual EPS growth of 5 –– 7%7%Increase dividend by 2 Increase dividend by 2 –– 4% annually4% annuallyReduce emissions by 2020Reduce emissions by 2020

Grow our core business andGrow our core business andmeet the environmental challengemeet the environmental challenge

Page 5: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Carbon StrategyCarbon Strategy

Reduce carbonReduce carbon emissions by 2020emissions by 2020Implement strategy by operating companyImplement strategy by operating companyMaintain reasonable ratesMaintain reasonable ratesEnsure appropriate regulatory treatmentEnsure appropriate regulatory treatment

Page 6: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Climate Change Climate Change –– the Disruptive Policythe Disruptive Policy

Climate Change policy will require:Climate Change policy will require:

—— Significant emission reductionsSignificant emission reductions

—— Significant capital investmentsSignificant capital investments

—— LongLong--term technological transformationterm technological transformation

—— A diverse portfolio of resourcesA diverse portfolio of resources

Utilities will bear the lionUtilities will bear the lion’’s share of the reductionss share of the reductions

Page 7: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Xcel Energy States at ForefrontXcel Energy States at Forefront

N/AN/A.2%.2%5% by 20155% by 2015TXTX

N/AN/AN/AN/A10% by 201510% by 2015WIWI

10% by 202010% by 2020(over 2000)(over 2000).3%.3%20% by 202020% by 2020NMNM

N/AN/A.6%.6%20% by 202020% by 2020COCO

30% by 202530% by 2025(over 2005)(over 2005)1.5%1.5%30% by 202030% by 2020MNMN

Carbon Carbon ReductionReduction

DemandDemand--Side Side Management Management (annual MWh (annual MWh

savings)savings)

Renewable Renewable Portfolio Portfolio

Standards Standards StateState

Page 8: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Benefits of a Stability/Reduction PlanBenefits of a Stability/Reduction Plan

Reduce riskReduce risk

—— Federal and state carbon regulationFederal and state carbon regulation

—— Community and litigation risksCommunity and litigation risks

—— Mitigate longMitigate long--term costs to customersterm costs to customers

Demonstrate continued environmental leadershipDemonstrate continued environmental leadership

Potential for investment opportunitiesPotential for investment opportunities

Page 9: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Value of Clean TechnologiesValue of Clean Technologies

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

35003500

19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010 20152015 20202020 20252025 20302030

U.S. Electric Sector CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)

EIA Base Case 2007

Advanced Coal Generation

Distributed GenerationPlug-in Hybrid VehiclesCarbon Capture & Sequestration

EfficiencyRenewablesNuclear Generation

Technology

Source: EPRISource: EPRI

Page 10: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Clean Energy ActionsClean Energy Actions

Increase renewable energyIncrease renewable energyUprate and extend lives of nuclear plantsUprate and extend lives of nuclear plantsExpand demand side management, energy Expand demand side management, energy efficiency and conservation effortsefficiency and conservation effortsIncrease investment in transmissionIncrease investment in transmissionUpgrade environmental systems and improve Upgrade environmental systems and improve efficiencies of generation plants efficiencies of generation plants Replace/repower inefficient generationReplace/repower inefficient generationEvaluate carbon capture and storageEvaluate carbon capture and storage

Page 11: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Minnesota Resource PlanMinnesota Resource Plan

Reduces carbon emission by 22% by 2020Reduces carbon emission by 22% by 2020

Adds 2,600 megawatts of wind by 2020Adds 2,600 megawatts of wind by 2020

Seeks to expand output from Prairie Island and Monticello Seeks to expand output from Prairie Island and Monticello nuclear plants by 230 MWnuclear plants by 230 MW

Requests environmental upgrades and capacity expansion of Requests environmental upgrades and capacity expansion of 80 MW at Sherco80 MW at Sherco

Seeks approval of Manitoba Hydro 375 MW PPASeeks approval of Manitoba Hydro 375 MW PPA

Would add 2,300 MW of natural gas generationWould add 2,300 MW of natural gas generation

Expands DSM effortsExpands DSM efforts

Plan requires Commission approvalPlan requires Commission approval

Page 12: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Colorado Resource PlanColorado Resource Plan

Reduces carbon emission by 10% by 2017 and puts Reduces carbon emission by 10% by 2017 and puts PSCo on path to achieve 20% reduction by 2020PSCo on path to achieve 20% reduction by 2020

Adds 800 MW of wind by 2015Adds 800 MW of wind by 2015

Replaces four coal units with natural gas generationReplaces four coal units with natural gas generation

Acquire 25 MW of solar with plans to add up to 200 Acquire 25 MW of solar with plans to add up to 200 MW of solar as technology developsMW of solar as technology develops

Expands DSM effortsExpands DSM efforts

Plan requires Commission approvalPlan requires Commission approval

Page 13: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Xcel Energy and Wind PotentialXcel Energy and Wind Potential

Wind DensityWind DensityHighHigh

LowLowXcel EnergyXcel EnergyStates ServedStates Served

Page 14: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Changing Supply Mix Changing Supply Mix

Coal Coal ****46%46%

GasGas17%17%

NuclearNuclear13%13%

Estimated 2020 Estimated 2020 Energy Supply Mix *Energy Supply Mix *

** Percentage of MW capacity, includes purchasesPercentage of MW capacity, includes purchases**** LowLow--sulfur western coalsulfur western coal

20072007Energy Supply Mix *Energy Supply Mix *

NuclearNuclear12%12%

Coal Coal ****57% 57%

GasGas21%21%

RenewablesRenewables10%10%

Renewables Renewables 24%24%

Page 15: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Success FactorsSuccess Factors

Key components of past growthKey components of past growth—— Constructive rate case outcomesConstructive rate case outcomes—— MERPMERP—— Comanche 3Comanche 3

Key components of future growthKey components of future growth—— Transmission riders (MN, CO, ND, SD)Transmission riders (MN, CO, ND, SD)—— Favorable wind recovery (MN, CO)Favorable wind recovery (MN, CO)—— Environmental rider (MN)Environmental rider (MN)—— Planned forward test year (CO)Planned forward test year (CO)—— Nuclear recovery mechanism (MN)Nuclear recovery mechanism (MN)—— Southwestern Public Service (SPS)Southwestern Public Service (SPS)

Page 16: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Capital Expenditure ForecastCapital Expenditure Forecast

Dollars in millionsDollars in millionsDollars in millions Denotes enhanced recovery mechanismDenotes enhanced recovery mechanismDenotes enhanced recovery mechanism20082008 20092009 20102010 20112011

Base & Other Base & Other $1,245$1,245 $1,285$1,285 $1,310$1,310 $1,300$1,300MERPMERP 170170 2525 1010 00Comanche 3Comanche 3 330330 6060 1010 00MN Wind Tran/CapX 2020MN Wind Tran/CapX 2020 4040 6565 115115 270270Sherco UpgradeSherco Upgrade 55 2020 7575 230230MN Wind GenerationMN Wind Generation 135135 00 00 00Nuclear Capacity/Life ExtNuclear Capacity/Life Ext 7575 120120 180180 200200Fort St. Vrain CTFort St. Vrain CT 100100 2525 00 00Total CommittedTotal Committed $2,100$2,100 $1,600$1,600 $1,700$1,700 $2,000$2,000

Potential ProjectsPotential Projects 00--100100 200200--400400 200200--400 400 200200--500500RangeRange $2,100$2,100-- $1,800$1,800-- $1,900$1,900-- $2,200$2,200--

$2,200$2,200 $2,000$2,000 $2,100$2,100 $2,500$2,500

Page 17: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Recovery on Capital Investment *Recovery on Capital Investment *

* Capital forecast based on middle of range* Capital forecast based on middle of range

Depreciation

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

2008 2009 2010 2011

Traditional Recovery Enhanced Recovery

Dollars in millionsDollars in millions

$2,150$2,150$1,900$1,900 $2,000$2,000

$2,350$2,350

Page 18: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Potential Cash from Operations Potential Cash from Operations

* Net Income growth based on middle of range* Net Income growth based on middle of range

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2008 2009 2010 2011Net Income * Depreciation NOL

Dollars in millionsDollars in millions

Page 19: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Delivering on Rate Base Growth *Delivering on Rate Base Growth *

$16.9$15.7$14.9$14.0$12.8$11.7

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

CAGR = 7.5%CAGR = 7.5%

Dollars in billionsDollars in billions

* Growth based on middle of capital forecast range* Growth based on middle of capital forecast range

Page 20: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Regulated Utility $1.55 $1.61 – $1.71 Holding Company $(0.12) $(0.16) Ongoing Earnings $1.43 $1.45 – $1.55

PSRI/COLI $(0.08) –Continuing Operations $1.35 $1.45 - $1.55Disc Ops – –GAAP Earnings $1.35 $1.45 – $1.55

Regulated UtilityRegulated Utility $1.55 $1.55 $1.61 $1.61 –– $1.71 $1.71 Holding CompanyHolding Company $(0.12)$(0.12) $(0.16) $(0.16) Ongoing Earnings Ongoing Earnings $1.43$1.43 $1.45 $1.45 –– $1.55$1.55

PSRI/COLIPSRI/COLI $(0.08)$(0.08) ––Continuing OperationsContinuing Operations $1.35$1.35 $1.45 $1.45 -- $1.55$1.55Disc Ops Disc Ops –– ––GAAP Earnings $1.35GAAP Earnings $1.35 $1.45 $1.45 –– $1.55$1.55

Earnings Guidance Range Earnings Guidance Range

2007A2007A2007A 200820082008Dollars per shareDollars per share

Page 21: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Delivering on 5Delivering on 5--7% EPS Growth7% EPS Growth

$1.15$1.15$1.30$1.30

$1.43$1.43

2005 2005 OngoingOngoing

2006 2006 OngoingOngoing

2007 2007 OngoingOngoing

Guidance RangeGuidance Range

13%10%

$1.45 $1.45 -- $1.55$1.55

5%*

2008 2008 GuidanceGuidance

Ongoing EPS excludes the impacts of COLI and disc ops.Ongoing EPS excludes the impacts of COLI and disc ops.A reconciliation to GAAP earnings is included in the appendix.A reconciliation to GAAP earnings is included in the appendix.

~~

* Estimated growth rate based on middle of guidance range* Estimated growth rate based on middle of guidance range

Page 22: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Delivering onDelivering onDividend Growth ObjectiveDividend Growth Objective

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

$0.75$0.75

20042004––2007 CAGR = 3.5%2007 CAGR = 3.5%

Annualized dividend per shareAnnualized dividend per share

$0.83$0.83 $0.86$0.86 $0.89$0.89 $0.92$0.92

Page 23: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Xcel Energy Share OwnershipXcel Energy Share Ownership

RetailRetail36%36%

Growth/GARPGrowth/GARP22%22%

ValueValue9%9%

QuantQuant6%6%

OtherOther10%10%

IndexIndex16%16%

OtherOther<1%<1%

USAUSA92%92%

EuropeEurope8%8%

Page 24: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

P/E Valuation as of April 18, 2008P/E Valuation as of April 18, 2008

WEC

AEEDUK

LNT PNW PGNPCG ED

SCGCNP

CMS

XELAEP

SO

AVG

11

13

15

17WEC

AEEDUK

LNT PNW PGNPCG ED

SCGCNP

CMS

XELAEP

SO

AVG

11

13

15

17P/E based on 2008 estimated EPSP/E based on 2008 estimated EPSP/E based on 2008 estimated EPS

XEL P/E Discount ~ 1%XEL P/E Discount ~ 1%

Page 25: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Short InterestShort Interest

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Mar-07

Apr-07

May-07

Jun-07

Jul-0

7

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07

Nov-07

Dec-07

Jan-08

Feb-08

Mar-08

Apr-08

Millions of SharesMillions of Shares

Page 26: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

-16%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

12/31

/2007

1/30/2

008

2/29/2

008

3/30/2

008

Peer Avg XEL

Stock Price ChangeStock Price Change

Page 27: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Attractive Value PropositionAttractive Value Proposition

Low risk, fully regulated and integrated utilityLow risk, fully regulated and integrated utility

Constructive regulatory environment with enhanced Constructive regulatory environment with enhanced recovery of major capital projectsrecovery of major capital projects

Pipeline of investment opportunitiesPipeline of investment opportunities

Environmental leader, wellEnvironmental leader, well--positionedpositionedfor changing rulesfor changing rules

Attractive Total ReturnAttractive Total ReturnSustainable annual EPS growth of 5% Sustainable annual EPS growth of 5% –– 7%7%with upside potentialwith upside potentialStrong dividend yield of 4.4%Strong dividend yield of 4.4%Sustainable annual dividend growth of 2% Sustainable annual dividend growth of 2% –– 4%4%

~~

Page 28: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

AppendixAppendix

Page 29: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Ongoing Earnings $1.15 $1.30 $1.43PSRI/COLI $0.05 $0.05 $(0.08)Continuing Operations $1.20 $1.35 $1.35Disc Ops $0.03 $0.01 –GAAP Earnings $1.23 $1.36 $1.35

Ongoing Earnings Ongoing Earnings $1.15 $1.15 $1.30$1.30 $1.43$1.43PSRI/COLIPSRI/COLI $0.05$0.05 $0.05$0.05 $(0.08)$(0.08)Continuing OperationsContinuing Operations $1.20$1.20 $1.35$1.35 $1.35$1.35Disc Ops Disc Ops $0.03$0.03 $0.01 $0.01 ––GAAP Earnings $1.23 GAAP Earnings $1.23 $1.36$1.36 $1.35$1.35

Reconciliation Reconciliation -- Ongoing EPS to GAAP Ongoing EPS to GAAP

200720072007Dollars per shareDollars per share

200620062006200520052005

As a result of the termination of the COLI program, Xcel Energy’s management believes that ongoing earnings provide a more meaningful comparison of earnings results between different periods in which the COLI program was in place and is more representative of Xcel Energy’s fundamental core earnings power. Xcel Energy’s management uses ongoing earnings internally for financial planning and analysis, for reporting of results to the Board of Directors, in determining whether performance targets are met for performance-based compensation, and when communicating its earnings outlook to analysts and investors.

Page 30: xcel energy  Better_Investing_April2008

Senior Debt RatingsSenior Debt Ratings

SecuredSecured UnsecuredUnsecuredFitch Moody’s S&P Fitch Moody’s S&PFitch Moody’s S&P Fitch Moody’s S&P

Holding Co. BBB+ Baa1 BBBNSPM A+ A2 A A A3 BBBNSPW A+ A2 A A A3 BBB+ PSCo A A3 A A- Baa1 BBBSPS BBB+ Baa1 BBB+

Holding Co. BBB+ Baa1 BBBNSPM A+ A2 A A A3 BBBNSPW A+ A2 A A A3 BBB+ PSCo A A3 A A- Baa1 BBBSPS BBB+ Baa1 BBB+