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Financial Success Through Financial Success Through Environmental Leadership Environmental Leadership Ben Fowke Ben Fowke Vice President & CFO Vice President & CFO Bank of America Energy Conference Bank of America Energy Conference November 14 November 14 - - 16, 2007 16, 2007 Key Biscayne, Florida Key Biscayne, Florida

xcel energy BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

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Page 1: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Financial Success Through Financial Success Through Environmental Leadership Environmental Leadership

Ben FowkeBen FowkeVice President & CFOVice President & CFO

Bank of America Energy ConferenceBank of America Energy ConferenceNovember 14November 14--16, 200716, 2007Key Biscayne, FloridaKey Biscayne, Florida

Page 2: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

This material includes forwardThis material includes forward--looking statements that are subject to looking statements that are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Such forwardcertain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Such forward--looking looking statements include projected earnings, cash flows, capital expenstatements include projected earnings, cash flows, capital expenditures ditures and other statements and are identified in this document by the and other statements and are identified in this document by the words words ““anticipate,anticipate,”” ““estimate,estimate,”” ““expect,expect,”” ““projected,projected,”” ““objective,objective,”” ““outlook,outlook,””““possible,possible,”” ““potentialpotential”” and similar expressions. Actual results may vary and similar expressions. Actual results may vary materially. Factors that could cause actual results to differ mmaterially. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially aterially include, but are not limited to: general economic conditions, ininclude, but are not limited to: general economic conditions, including the cluding the availability of credit, actions of rating agencies and their impavailability of credit, actions of rating agencies and their impact on capital act on capital expenditures; business conditions in the energy industry; competexpenditures; business conditions in the energy industry; competitive itive factors; unusual weather; effects of geopolitical events, includfactors; unusual weather; effects of geopolitical events, including war and ing war and acts of terrorism; changes in federal or state legislation; reguacts of terrorism; changes in federal or state legislation; regulation; lation; actions of accounting regulatory bodies; the higher degree of riactions of accounting regulatory bodies; the higher degree of risk sk associated with Xcel Energyassociated with Xcel Energy’’s nonregulated businesses compared with s nonregulated businesses compared with Xcel EnergyXcel Energy’’s regulated business; and other risk factors listed from time s regulated business; and other risk factors listed from time to time by Xcel Energy in reports filed with the SEC, including to time by Xcel Energy in reports filed with the SEC, including Exhibit Exhibit 99.01 to Xcel Energy99.01 to Xcel Energy’’s report on Form 10s report on Form 10--K for year 2006.K for year 2006.

Safe HarborSafe Harbor

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Traditional RegulationTraditional Regulation

Operate in 8 StatesOperate in 8 States

Combination UtilityCombination Utility::•• Electric 85% of net incomeElectric 85% of net income•• Gas 15% of net incomeGas 15% of net income

CustomersCustomers::•• 3.3 million electric3.3 million electric•• 1.8 million gas1.8 million gas

2006 Financial Stats:2006 Financial Stats:•• NI cont op = $548 millionNI cont op = $548 million•• Assets = $22 billionAssets = $22 billion•• Equity ratio = 43%Equity ratio = 43%•• GAAP ROE = 10.1%GAAP ROE = 10.1%

Company ProfileCompany Profile

NSPNSP-- WisconsinWisconsin7% of net income7% of net income

NSPNSP-- MinnesotaMinnesota47% of net income47% of net income

SPSSPS8% of net income8% of net income

PSCoPSCo38% of net income38% of net income

2006 EPS $1.30 continuing operations2006 EPS $1.30 continuing operations2007 Dividend $0.92 per share annualized2007 Dividend $0.92 per share annualized

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Climate Change: the Disruptive PolicyClimate Change: the Disruptive PolicyPublic policy and potential legislation highlights Public policy and potential legislation highlights the need to address climate change the need to address climate change Climate change policy will require:Climate change policy will require:—— Significant emission reductionsSignificant emission reductions—— Significant capital investmentsSignificant capital investments—— Technology transformationTechnology transformation—— Plant retirementsPlant retirements

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Xcel Energy States at ForefrontXcel Energy States at Forefront

N/AN/A.2%.2%5% by 20155% by 2015TXTX

N/AN/AN/AN/A10% by 201510% by 2015WIWI

10% by 202010% by 2020(over 2000)(over 2000).3%.3%20% by 202020% by 2020NMNM

20% by 202020% by 2020.7%.7%20% by 202020% by 2020COCO

30% by 202530% by 2025(over 2005)(over 2005)1.5%1.5%30% by 202030% by 2020MNMN

Carbon Carbon ReductionReduction

DemandDemand--Side Side Management Management (annual MWh (annual MWh

savings)savings)

Renewable Renewable Portfolio Portfolio

Standards Standards StateState

Page 6: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Benefits of a Stability/Reduction PlanBenefits of a Stability/Reduction Plan

Climate regulation is inevitableClimate regulation is inevitable““Policy makersPolicy makers”” rather than rather than ““policy takerspolicy takers””

Reduce riskReduce risk—— Federal and state carbon regulationFederal and state carbon regulation—— Community and litigation risksCommunity and litigation risks—— Mitigate longMitigate long--term costs to customersterm costs to customers

Demonstrate continued environmental leadershipDemonstrate continued environmental leadership

Potential for investment opportunitiesPotential for investment opportunities

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Carbon StrategyCarbon Strategy

By 2020, stabilize or reduce carbonBy 2020, stabilize or reduce carbon emissions emissions associated with electric serviceassociated with electric serviceImplement strategy by operating companyImplement strategy by operating companyMaintain reasonable ratesMaintain reasonable ratesEnsure appropriate regulatory treatmentEnsure appropriate regulatory treatment

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Clean Energy ActionsClean Energy Actions

Increase renewable energyIncrease renewable energyUprate and extend lives of nuclear plantsUprate and extend lives of nuclear plantsExpand DSM, energy efficiency and Expand DSM, energy efficiency and conservation effortsconservation effortsIncrease investment in transmissionIncrease investment in transmissionUpgrade environmental systems and improve Upgrade environmental systems and improve efficiencies of generation plants efficiencies of generation plants Replace/Replace/repowerrepower inefficient generationinefficient generationEvaluate carbon capture and storageEvaluate carbon capture and storage

Page 9: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Changing Supply Mix Changing Supply Mix

Coal Coal ****46%46%

GasGas17%17%

NuclearNuclear13%13%

Estimated 2020 Estimated 2020 Energy Supply Mix*Energy Supply Mix*

* Includes purchases** Low-sulfur western coal** Includes purchasesIncludes purchases**** LowLow--sulfur western coalsulfur western coal

2006Energy Supply Mix*

20062006Energy Supply Mix*Energy Supply Mix*

Nuclear12%

NuclearNuclear12%12%

Coal **52%

Coal Coal ****52% 52%

Gas27%GasGas27%27%

Renewables9%

RenewablesRenewables9%9%

RenewablesRenewables24%24%

Page 10: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Positioned for SuccessPositioned for SuccessEnvironmental leadership has created credibilityEnvironmental leadership has created credibilityCompetitive advantages through geographyCompetitive advantages through geography—— WindWind—— SolarSolar—— Carbon sequestrationCarbon sequestration—— BiomassBiomass

Partnering with key stakeholders to provide a cleaner Partnering with key stakeholders to provide a cleaner energy product that everyone wantsenergy product that everyone wants—— CustomersCustomers—— EnvironmentalistsEnvironmentalists—— RegulatorsRegulators—— LegislatorsLegislators

Constructive regulatory recovery mechanismsConstructive regulatory recovery mechanisms

Page 11: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Success FactorsSuccess Factors

Key components of future growthKey components of future growth—— Transmission riders (MN, CO, ND, SD)Transmission riders (MN, CO, ND, SD)—— Favorable wind recovery (MN, CO)Favorable wind recovery (MN, CO)—— Environmental rider (MN)Environmental rider (MN)—— Planned forward test year (CO)Planned forward test year (CO)—— SPSSPS

Key components of past growthKey components of past growth—— Improving utility ROEImproving utility ROE’’ss—— MERP MERP —— Comanche 3Comanche 3

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Capital Expenditure ForecastCapital Expenditure ForecastDollars in millionsDollars in millionsDollars in millions Denotes enhanced recovery mechanismDenotes enhanced recovery mechanismDenotes enhanced recovery mechanism

20072007 20082008 20092009 20102010 20112011Base & Other Base & Other $1,080$1,080 $ 1,245$ 1,245 $ 1,310$ 1,310 $ 1,310$ 1,310 $ 1,300$ 1,300MERPMERP 290290 170170 2525 1010 00Comanche 3Comanche 3 360360 330330 6060 1010 00MN Wind Tran/CapX 2020MN Wind Tran/CapX 2020 160160 4040 6565 115115 270270Sherco UpgradeSherco Upgrade 55 55 2020 7575 230230MN Wind GenerationMN Wind Generation 8080 135135 00 00 00Nuclear Capacity/Life ExtNuclear Capacity/Life Ext 2525 7575 120120 180180 200200Total CommittedTotal Committed 2,0002,000 2,0002,000 1,6001,600 1,7001,700 2,0002,000

Potential ProjectsPotential Projects 00 100100--200200 200200--400400 200200--400 400 200200--500500RangeRange $2,000$2,000 $2,100$2,100-- $1,800$1,800-- $1,900$1,900-- $2,200$2,200--

$2,200$2,200 $2,000$2,000 $2,100$2,100 $2,500$2,500

Page 13: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Potential Resource Plan ProjectsPotential Resource Plan Projects

Wind generationWind generation—— 2,800 MW of wind on2,800 MW of wind on--line by yearline by year--end 2007end 2007—— Projected 6,000 MW of wind onProjected 6,000 MW of wind on--line by 2020line by 2020—— Objective to increase owned vs. purchasedObjective to increase owned vs. purchased

Gas generationGas generation—— Backup for wind resourcesBackup for wind resources

TransmissionTransmission—— Support renewable development initiatives Support renewable development initiatives

proposed in resource plansproposed in resource plans

Page 14: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

$0

$400

$800

$1,200

$1,600

$2,000

$2,400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Traditional Recovery Enhanced Recovery

Recovery on Capital Investment Recovery on Capital Investment Dollars in millionsDollars in millions

Depreciation

* Capital forecast based on middle of range* Capital forecast based on middle of range

Page 15: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Delivering on Rate Base GrowthDelivering on Rate Base Growth**

$16.9$15.7$14.9$14.0$12.8$11.7

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

CAGR = 7.5%CAGR = 7.5%

Dollars in billionsDollars in billions

* Growth based on middle of capital forecast range* Growth based on middle of capital forecast range

Page 16: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Delivering on 5Delivering on 5--7% EPS Growth7% EPS Growth

$1.15$1.15$1.30$1.30

$1.38 $1.38 -- $1.42$1.42

2005 2005 ActualActual

2006 2006 ActualActual

2007 2007 GuidanceGuidance

Guidance RangeGuidance Range

13%>7%*

$1.45 $1.45 -- $1.55$1.55

7%*

2008 2008 GuidanceGuidance

Earnings per share from continuing operationsEarnings per share from continuing operations

~~

* Estimated growth rate based on middle of guidance range* Estimated growth rate based on middle of guidance range

Page 17: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Keys to Creating Shareholder ValueKeys to Creating Shareholder Value

Continue collaborative approach with stakeholdersContinue collaborative approach with stakeholders

Get the rules rightGet the rules right

Provides for rate base growthProvides for rate base growth

Continue disciplined portfolio management Continue disciplined portfolio management ––fix or exit underperformersfix or exit underperformers

Mitigate customer rate increasesMitigate customer rate increases

Page 18: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Attractive Value PropositionAttractive Value Proposition

Low risk, fully regulated and integrated utilityLow risk, fully regulated and integrated utilityConstructive regulatory environment with Constructive regulatory environment with enhanced recovery of major capital projectsenhanced recovery of major capital projectsPipeline of investment opportunitiesPipeline of investment opportunitiesEnvironmental leader, wellEnvironmental leader, well--positionedpositionedfor changing rulesfor changing rules

Attractive Total ReturnSustainable annual EPS growth of 5% – 7%with upside potentialStrong dividend yield of 4.2%Sustainable annual dividend growth of 2% – 4%

~~

Page 19: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

AppendixAppendix

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Financing PlanFinancing Plan

Cash from operationsCash from operations

NOL tax benefitsNOL tax benefits

DRIPDRIP

Debt Debt

Hybrid Hybrid

Potential equity Potential equity

Page 21: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Debt MaturitiesDebt Maturities

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

SPSPSCoNSPWNSPMXcel

Dollars in millionsDollars in millionsDollars in millions

Xcel Energy: $104 million due 11/27/2007 @ 7.50%Xcel Energy: $104 million due 11/27/2007 @ 7.50%

Page 22: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Senior Debt RatingsSenior Debt Ratings

SecuredSecured UnsecuredUnsecuredFitch Moody’s S&P Fitch Moody’s S&PFitch Moody’s S&P Fitch Moody’s S&P

Holding Co. BBB+ Baa1 BBBNSPM A+ A2 A A A3 BBBNSPW A+ A2 A A A3 BBB+ PSCo A A3 A A- Baa1 BBBSPS BBB+ Baa1 BBB+

Holding Co. BBB+ Baa1 BBBNSPM A+ A2 A A A3 BBBNSPW A+ A2 A A A3 BBB+ PSCo A A3 A A- Baa1 BBBSPS BBB+ Baa1 BBB+

Page 23: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

2006 Rate Case Outcomes2006 Rate Case OutcomesDollars in millionsDollars in millions

Colorado Electric $208 $151 11.0% 10.5%Minnesota Electric $156 $131/115* 11.0% 10.54%Wisconsin Electric $53.1 $43.4 11.9% 11.0%Colorado Gas $34.5 $22.0 11.0% 10.5%Wisconsin Gas $7.8 $3.9 11.9% 11.0%

Colorado Electric Colorado Electric $208$208 $151 $151 11.0%11.0% 10.5%10.5%Minnesota ElectricMinnesota Electric $156$156 $131/115* $131/115* 11.0%11.0% 10.54%10.54%Wisconsin ElectricWisconsin Electric $53.1$53.1 $43.4$43.4 11.9%11.9% 11.0%11.0%Colorado GasColorado Gas $34.5$34.5 $22.0$22.0 11.0%11.0% 10.5%10.5%Wisconsin GasWisconsin Gas $7.8$7.8 $3.9$3.9 11.9%11.9% 11.0%11.0%

Dollar IncreaseDollar IncreaseDollar Increase Return on EquityReturn on EquityReturn on Equity

Requested GrantedRequestedRequested GrantedGranted Requested GrantedRequestedRequested GrantedGranted

* $131 million for 2006 reduced to $115 million in 2007 * $131 million for 2006 reduced to $115 million in 2007 for large customer coming onfor large customer coming on--line January 1, 2007 line January 1, 2007

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2007 Rate Case Outcomes2007 Rate Case OutcomesDollars in millionsDollars in millions

Texas Electric $48.0 $23.0 11.6% NA

Colorado Gas $41.9 $32.3 11.0% 10.25%

Minnesota Gas $18.5 $11.9 11.0% 9.71%

North Dakota Gas $2.8 $2.3 11.3% 10.75%

Texas ElectricTexas Electric $48.0$48.0 $23.0$23.0 11.6% NA 11.6% NA

Colorado GasColorado Gas $41.9$41.9 $32.3$32.3 11.0%11.0% 10.25%10.25%

Minnesota GasMinnesota Gas $18.5$18.5 $11.9$11.9 11.0%11.0% 9.71%9.71%

North Dakota GasNorth Dakota Gas $2.8$2.8 $2.3 $2.3 11.3%11.3% 10.75%10.75%

Dollar IncreaseDollar Increase Return on EquityReturn on EquityRequested GrantedRequested Granted Requested GrantedRequested Granted

Page 25: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Rate Cases with Impact on 2008Rate Cases with Impact on 2008

Wisconsin Electric/Gas 2007 Q2 Early 2008New Mexico Electric 2007 Q3 Mid-2008North Dakota Electric 2007 Q4 Interim 2008 Q1FERC Cases 2007- 08 Mid-2008Texas Electric 2008 Q2 Interim rates for

PPA capacity costs mid-2008

Wisconsin Electric/GasWisconsin Electric/Gas 2007 Q22007 Q2 Early 2008Early 2008New Mexico ElectricNew Mexico Electric 2007 Q32007 Q3 MidMid--20082008North Dakota ElectricNorth Dakota Electric 2007 Q42007 Q4 Interim 2008 Q1Interim 2008 Q1FERC CasesFERC Cases 20072007-- 0808 MidMid--20082008Texas ElectricTexas Electric 2008 Q22008 Q2 Interim rates for Interim rates for

PPA capacity PPA capacity costs midcosts mid--20082008

FilingFiling Financial ImpactFinancial Impact

Page 26: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Pending Rate CasesPending Rate CasesDollars in millionsDollars in millions

RevenueRevenue RequestedRequested InterimInterimJurisdictionJurisdiction RequestRequest ROEROE RateRate DecisionDecision

Wisconsin ElectricWisconsin Electric $67.4$67.4 11.0%11.0% NANA Dec. 2007Dec. 2007Wisconsin GasWisconsin Gas $5.3$5.3 11.0%11.0% NANA Dec. 2007Dec. 2007New Mexico ElectricNew Mexico Electric $17.3$17.3 11.0%11.0% NANA Summer 2008Summer 2008

Page 27: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Riders with Impact on 2008Riders with Impact on 2008

MERPMERP

Colorado transmissionColorado transmission

Minnesota transmissionMinnesota transmission

Minnesota renewable energyMinnesota renewable energy

The following riders are expected to increase The following riders are expected to increase revenue by $65 revenue by $65 -- $75 million over 2007 levels$75 million over 2007 levels

Page 28: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Regulated Utility $1.51 – $1.55 $1.61 – $1.71 Holding Company $(0.13) $(0.16) Continuing Operations $1.38 – $1.42 $1.45 – $1.55

Disc Ops - COLI ($0.07) –Total $1.31 – $1.35 $1.45 – $1.55

Regulated UtilityRegulated Utility $1.51 $1.51 –– $1.55$1.55 $1.61 $1.61 –– $1.71 $1.71 Holding CompanyHolding Company $(0.13)$(0.13) $(0.16) $(0.16) Continuing OperationsContinuing Operations $1.38 $1.38 –– $1.42$1.42 $1.45 $1.45 –– $1.55$1.55

Disc Ops Disc Ops -- COLICOLI ($0.07)($0.07) ––Total Total $1.31 $1.31 –– $1.35$1.35 $1.45 $1.45 –– $1.55$1.55

Earnings Guidance Range 2007 Earnings Guidance Range 2007 -- 20082008

200720072007 20082008

Dollars per shareDollars per shareDollars per share

Page 29: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

2006 Rate Base and ROE2006 Rate Base and ROE

Minnesota ElectricMinnesota Electric $3,599$3,599 10.3%10.3%Minnesota GasMinnesota Gas 441441 6.16.1North Dakota ElectricNorth Dakota Electric 188188 8.98.9North Dakota GasNorth Dakota Gas 4444 7.57.5South Dakota ElectricSouth Dakota Electric 232232 11.111.1Colorado ElectricColorado Electric 3,2923,292 7.77.7Colorado GasColorado Gas 1,1061,106 7.87.8Wisconsin ElectricWisconsin Electric 556556 10.710.7Wisconsin GasWisconsin Gas 7777 4.64.6Texas ElectricTexas Electric 977 977 6.56.5New Mexico ElectricNew Mexico Electric 311311 6.26.2WholesaleWholesale 879879 Not ReportedNot ReportedTotal Rate Base $11,702Total Rate Base $11,702

Weather NormalizedRate Base Earned ROE

Weather NormalizedWeather NormalizedRate BaseRate Base Earned ROEEarned ROE

Dollars in millionsDollars in millions

Page 30: xcel energy  BAC_Presentation_112007_Final

Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Xcel Energy and Wind PotentialXcel Energy and Wind Potential

Wind DensityWind DensityHighHigh

LowLowXcel EnergyXcel EnergyStates ServedStates Served