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In a policy-driven world, we see three possible paths.
Path 1Economic
Stagnation
Path 2Secular
Expansion
Path 3Moderate Growth
Path 1Economic StagnationU.S. rates rise quickly, restraining growth.
Deflation takes over Europe and Japan.
China weakens and global trade stagnates.
Probability? Low
China experiences significant consumption growth.
The strong dollar and cheap energy fuel a U.S. boom.
Europe and emerging markets see major structural reforms.
Path 2Secular Expansion
LowProbability?
Growth is strong enough to support corporate earnings, but not enough to cause inflationary concerns.
Path 3Moderate Growth
HighProbability?
All signs point to continuedmoderate growth in the
U.S. and abroad.
Our Mid-Year Outlook?Great Moderation 2.0
Interest rates will stay low.
Investors will pay up for scarce growth and income opportunities.
Stocks will keep outperforming bonds.
We believe:
Shares of Oppenheimer funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured
by the FDIC or any other agency, and involve investment risks,including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Oppenheimer funds are distributed by OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. 225 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10281-1008© 2015 OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. All rights reserved.