Where Next For The World Economy

Business Monitor International

Where Next for the World Economy?Strategies, Risks and Scenarios for the Recovery (2011-2015)

Justin Patrie, Head of Country Risk & Financial MarketsBusiness Monitor International


Outline1. Global Outlook

– Europe: 3-Speed Eurozone Takes Shape– USA: An Imbalanced Recovery– Asia: Growth To Moderate

2. CEEMEA Strategy– MENA: Implications of the ‘Arab Spring’– CEE: From Crisis To Growth– Africa: Commodities, Consumers and Investment

3. Key Conclusions & Appendix Tables

2


3

Global Outlook: World On The Mend• The global recovery will mature further through 2011/2012, underpinning stability in credit markets

• Companies have cash, the labour market will improve further and banks are willing to lend. This bodes well for investments and a slow but steady improvement in credit growth.

• That said, rising commodity prices, Europe’s debt profile, slowdowns in Asia, interest rate hikes, political instability and weak US household consumption all contribute to a substantial risk profile

• This will not be a repeat of 2003-2007. Credit dynamics and investor risk appetite will not replicate the pre-crisis period.

• Divergence will be a key global theme. Performance in Europe will be divided between the core and periphery; US growth will be uneven, led by business investment; key emerging markets are in the process of structural shifts


This can be your title pageI. Global Outlook


5

The Maturation Of The Recovery…

Eurozone

Source: Eurostat and Bureau of Economic Analysis

United States

GDP By Expenditure Percentage Point Contribution To Growth


This can be your title page

Where Are We In The Recovery?BMI Global Forecasts 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f

World Real GDP Growth (%) -1.7 4.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7

World Consumer Inflation (% ave) 1.9 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4

Oil Price, Brent Crude (US$/bbl) 67.00 79.47 94.00 99.00 93.00 93.00 92.63

ECB Refinancing Rate 1.00 1.00 2.00 3.25 4.00 4.00 4.00

US Fed Funds Rate 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 3.50 4.25 4.25

Bank of Japan Overnight Call Rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

Bank of England Base Rate 0.50 0.50 1.00 2.25 3.25 4.00 4.50

US$/EUR Exchange Rate (ave) 1.40 1.33 1.43 1.38 1.30 1.25 1.25

• Since mid-2009, the global macroeconomic recovery has continued apace, though the growth drivers have begun to shift away from exports and inventory re-stocking and back towards domestic demand

• With the recovery maturing, global credit markets are set to stabilise further, even as inflation and interest rates rise


7

Credit Markets Are Coming Back…Eurozone credit growth isexpected to rise further

After its greatest period ofcontraction in over 60 years,US credit is showing signs of expansion

Source: European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve


8

In 2011, the key stories in the US, Europe and Asia have remained benign…

1. The existential crisis risks to the eurozone were overblown…2. US demand signals and large cap businesses are doing well…3. China continues to grow strongly suggesting a ‘soft landing’…

Dow Jones


9

Capital Markets Are Well Beyond The Crisis Phase…

German 2-year treasury yields (%)

MSCI World Equity Index


10

Divergence Will Continue To Be A Major Theme

2. The developed world lags emergingmarkets in monetary policy tightening. This will help push rebalancing in EMs.

3. The US recovery will not be commensurate with a strong labour or housing market. This suggests divergent sectoral performances

1. Eurozone will be a region divided, with sharp differentiations in credit conditions, labour markets, demand and growth.

Germany to outperformEM currencies to appreciate

business investment to be key growth engine


11

The Risk Profile Remains Substantial…• The disaster in Japan and political instability in MENA have elevated an already substantial risk profile for the world economy

• That said, while these events have challenged our generally positive recovery outlook, they have not forced a fundamental reassessment of our global macro/market strategy

Uprisings Across MENA…

Elevated Investor Risk Aversion

Supply Risks To Energy Production

Demand Destruction

MENA Growth Revised Down

Oil Price Forecasts Revised Up

Liquidity To Remain Subdued

Japan Disasters

Key Supply Chains Disrupted

Negative Impact On Fiscal Position

Nuclear Power Sector Downturn

Japan Growth Revised Down

Temporary Setback For Industrials

Asia Largely Unaffected


12

Risk 1: Getting The Policy Wrong (Monetary Policy Tightening)

• What happens when QE2 is drawn down? There is no historic precedent so no one knows for sure…

• The Fed is likely to err on the side of caution though, so don’t expect rate hikes until H112 at the earliestUS Federal Reserve Assets, US$bn


13

Risk 2: Eurozone Debt• Most investors (and BMI) expect Greece to restructure its debtThe risks come not from whether Greece will restructure but how…

• Uncertainty over the potential size of hair cuts and the level of exposure within individual markets and banks raises the risks of volatility

Source: Bloomberg, BMI

Greece: Outstanding Bonds, EURbn


14

Risk 3: China Asset Bubble BurstIs China the next great macroeconomic disaster?

• The state of the Chinese real estate and construction sectors is one of the most important questions for the global macro outlook…

• China is in the process of a major re-structuring away from exports and investments and towards consumption... Gross Fixed Capital Formation Growth

Source: Respective Central Banks


15

Risk 4: Commodities Price Super SpikeCould oil go back to US$150/bbl? Only if Saudi Arabia or another major producer experiences an unlikely political event…

Food price inflation is a major factor in MENA unrest and contributing to rate hikes.Grains could rise to records should supply remain tight…

?

?



Eurozone: Driven By The Core • Strength in the core (DE and FR) will outweigh risks from the periphery

• Crisis will be averted as policymakers control systemic risks

• German demand will become an increasingly important factor driving growth

•Structural reforms could be a long-term game changer, though political will for change is likely to diminish going forward

• BMI Eurozone Forecasts 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f

Real GDP Growth (%) 0.4 -4.1 1.7 (2.2) 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8

GDP per capita (EUR) 28,900 27,424 27,929 28,365 29,327 30,357 31,453 32,600

Unemployment (% eop) 8.3 9.9 10.4 9.7 9.2 8.4 8.0 8.0

Current Account (% of GDP) -1.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6

Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) -2.0 -6.3 -6.0 -5.5 -4.3 -3.1 -2.2 -2.2

Inflation (% ave) 3.3 0.3 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8

ECB Refinancing Rate (% EOP) 2.50 1.00 1.00 2.00 3.25 4.00 4.00 4.00

Exchange Rate, US$/EUR (ave) 1.47 1.41 1.33 1.43 1.39 1.30 1.25 1.25


17

The Risk Dynamics Have ShiftedSignificantly Since 2010…

1. An aggressive policy response has calmed investors and re-established stability to capital markets. The expectations that a eurozone break up is possible have fallen dramatically.

2. Robust German (and to an extent French) growth has confirmed that the core will be resilient to the debt crises in Greece, Ireland and Portugal. As an aggregate, the eurozone looks healthy.

3. Spain and Italy are not crisis states, diminishing the usefulness of the ‘PIIGS’ moniker


18

•EU, ECB, Euro-Area Governments and IMF have all been proactive in establishing support mechanisms for troubled economies…

Policy Response Has Been Key

EFSF• Emergency financing programme tapped by Portugal and Ireland• Provided markets with a clearly defined emergency multi-lateral financing programme for the eurozone

European Stability Mechanism• Long-term financing programme meant to replace EFSF in 2013• Provides a permanent bail-out mechanism, thus mitigating uncertainty risk over the long run

Euro Plus Pact• A structural reform agreement designed to enhance the SGP• Failed to deliver the more far-reaching reforms demanded by Germany, effectiveness is in question

ECB Interventions• ECB has been the most active buyers of periphery debt and has showered the banking system with liquidity• Liquidity crisis highly unlikely with ECB commitment


19

2. But when the EFSF came into play, the correlation broke down .Greek yields kept rising but euro reversed and has been appreciatingsince…

Greece No Longer Moves Euro Markets…


20

Spain: Risks Are There But No Need To Panic

Source: European Central Bank

Banking sector is stabilising, with crisis risks mitigating by the month…

While a systemic solvency crisis is less of a risk, the macro story will be weighed down for years…

Unemployment Rates, %


21

Spain: Housing/Construction Is A Disaster…

Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, TINSA IMIE, Business Monitor International Forecasts

BMI Spain Forecasts 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f

Real GDP Growth (%) 0.9 -3.7 -0.6 0.7 1.4 1.9 2.0 2.1

Private Consumption Growth (%) -0.6 -4.2 -1.5 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.9

Capital Investment Growth (%) -4.8 -16.0 -5.0 -0.5 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.4

Inflation (% ave) 4.1 -0.3 1.0 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3

House Prices, Decline From Peak (%)


22

As An Aggregate, The Eurozone Recovery Looks Healthy

Source: Eurostat

Percentage pt. contribution to real GDP growth


23

It All Begins With German Industry…

Without the leverage over-hang of the UK or US and its highly productive export sector…

…Germany has been able to take advantage of the boom in EMs and recovering French demand.

Source: DeSUS, Institute for Economic Research (IFO)


24

Export Strength Has Filtered Through To Wider Business Sectors…

Source: IFO

Services and Manufacturing Rising In Tandem

Corporate confidence at record highs


25

…And Corporate Strength Means Credit Strength

IFO Survey: % Respondents Who Say It Is Difficult To Access Credit

• By historic standards, German companies are not having difficulties accessing credit…

Source: IFO


26

ZEW Survey Affirms Maturation Of Recovery Confidence Is Back At Cycle Highs,

Though Expectations Suggest Peak Is Near…

Source: ZEW, Business Monitor International Forecasts

BMI Germany F/casts 2010 2011 2012 2013

Real GDP Growth (%) 3.6 3.5 2.0 1.8

Private Consumption Growth (%) 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.0

Capital Investment Growth (%) 5.5 4.1 2.4 1.7

Inflation (% ave) 0.5 1.6 1.8 1.2

Industrial Production (% ave) 14.2 9.0 5.0 3.0


27

What Does This Mean For The Eurozone?1. Wide divergences, with Germany leading, France and Italy in the middle and Spain, Greece and Portugal lagging- a ‘3-speed Europe’

Unemployment, % of Total

Source: Eurostat

Employment Rate, % of Total


28

2. The Consumer Has Lagged, But Will Play Catchup

Source: EU Commission Survey

Household Savings Rates, %

EU Confidence Indices

Lower household savings rates reflective of improved confidence and bodes well for investment growth


29

3. Investment Rates Will Rise…

Manufacturing Capacity Utilisation has rebounded

Which bodes well for corporate investments

Source: Eurostat


30

4. Monetary Policy Will Tighten Further!

Source: European Central Bank, European Commission

• Euro will remain buoyed against dollar, at least until 2012

• Expect borrowing rates to rise, but monetary policy should remain accommodative


31

Western Europe: What A ‘3-Speed’ Eurozone Means For

Strategy 1. On the whole, European capital markets will remain stable, contributing to the broader global recovery.

2. Germany, the Nordic States and Central Europe will continue to lead in growth and demand terms.

3. While the peripheral economies of Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Spain will continue to post weak growth over the medium term, they will benefit from core strength.

4. The euro will not collapse, equities should rise further and bond yields will go up.



USA: An Unbalanced Recovery•

BMI USA Forecasts 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f

Real GDP Growth (%) 0.0 -2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.4

Capital Investment Growth (%) -6.4 -18.3 3.8 7.8 8.0 6.8 5.3 5.3

Private Consumption Growth (%) -0.3 -1.2 1.8 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.2 2.0

GDP per capita (US$) 47,257 46,007 47,308 49,056 51,075 53,192 55,298 57,406

Unemployment (% eop) 7.0 10.0 9.4 8.8 8.1 7.5 7.3 7.1

Current Account (% of GDP) -4.7 -2.7 -3.2 -3.5 -3.3 -3.2 -3.1 -3.0

Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) -3.2 -10.0 -8.8 -9.5 -7.1 -5.0 -3.7 -3.2

Inflation (average %) 3.8 -.4 1.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2

Fed Funds Rate (% eop) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 3.50 4.25 4.25

• US growth will be uneven and led by business investment and gross exports. This is an unusual recovery by historic standards.

• Large corporates have done exceedingly well, though the same cannot be said for small businesses

• Household and corporate balance sheet repair is in a mature phase, like in the eurozone, this bodes well for investment


33

This Is An Unusual Recovery…• Inventory re-stocking and business investment is playing a much larger part in this recovery

• Residential investment is placing a net drag on growth confirming the still weak state of the housing market

% point contribution to cumulative growth during recovery period after recession


34

No Wonder The Dow’s Doubled Since Mid-2009

US corporate profits are at record highs!

Like In Europe, the industrial sector has led the way

Source: Bloomberg, ISM


35

Companies Sitting On Piles Of Cash, Though Small Businesses Still Suffering

Source: Bloomberg


36

Labour Market Has Been Slow To Recover…

Americans are leaving the workforce: Unemployment rate is coming down, but participation remains at record lows

NFP’s will be key to watch


37

There Has Been A Structural Shift In Long-Term Personal Consumption

Source: Business Monitor International


38

The Status Of US Balance Sheet Repair: But there are tentative signs that households are coming back slowly


39

Monetary Conditions Bode Well

Banks are sitting on record reserves

Consumer credit beginning to pick up



Asia: China Moderation • Emerging markets growth in Asia will moderate, though the region will remain a key driver of global growth

• China is in the process of a major macroeconomic restructuring with private consumption rising in relative importance to investment and exports

• Indian growth will outpace China over the long run

BMI Asia Growth Forecasts 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f

China 11.7 9.2 10.3 8.9 8.1 7.6 7.0 7.0

Hong Kong 2.3 -2.7 6.8 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6

India 6.8 8.0 8.6 7.8 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.6

Indonesia 6.0 4.6 6.1 5.9 5.8 6.2 6.3 6.4

Japan -1.2 -6.3 3.9 0.7 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.2

Philippines 3.8 0.9 7.3 5.1 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8

South Korea 2.2 0.3 6.1 4.0 4.7 4.1 4.2 4.2

Taiwan 0.7 -1.9 10.8 4.3 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9

Thailand 2.7 -2.5 7.8 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.2


This can be your title pageII. CEEMEA Strategy


42

CEEMEA Strategy: Investment Boom Has Legs • Russia and Turkey are among the strongest EM convergence stories over the long term. Both will benefit from robust investment cycles, rising consumption and strong headline real GDP growth

• UAE and Qatar will be resilient to regional political crises while Saudi Arabian investment will continue to boom.

• Egypt and Morocco still present strong growth stories assuming there are peaceful political resolutions.

• Ghana, Nigeria and Zambia are among our favourite global frontier markets. All combine commodity booms with broader consumer and infrastructure investment plays.



MENA: Assessing The Implications• Conflicting Trends: Higher oil prices benefit producers, but higher risk premiums undermine importers

• There has been a fundamental shift in risk perceptions across the region

• Political crises are unlikely to be resolved soon, there will be protracted uncertainty

BMI MENA Growth Forecasts 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f

Bahrain 6.3 3.1 3.5 -1.6 1.6 2.8 4.7 13.0

Egypt 7.2 4.7 5.1 3.2 3.7 4.9 4.9 5.0

Iran .8 1.2 1.6 1.2 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.5

Israel 4.0 .7 3.7 3.8 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0

Morocco 5.5 3.8 3.3 2.2 4.1 4.1 4.2 3.7

Oman 12.7 1.4 4.3 4.3 3.7 1.8 1.9 1.9

Qatar 25.4 8.7 15.9 17.2 7.8 6.6 6.4 5.8

Saudi Arabia 4.1 0.4 3.8 5.0 5.1 3.6 3.5 3.2

UAE 7.4 -3.0 2.9 3.3 3.2 3.1 4.0 4.5


Dual Deficit Economies Most At Risk

44

Morocco, 5-year credit default swap (bps)

• rising risk premia will pose particular challenges for those that rely on foreign financing…

Source: Bloomberg, Respective Central Banks


45

Oil Exporters Oil Importers

CrisisLib, Bah

OutliersAlg, Irq, Irn

Gulf MonarchiesSA, Qat, UAE,

Kw,Om

MonarchiesMor, Jor

OutliersLeb

CrisisTun, Egp, Syr, Yem

More StableLess Stable Less Stable

Wide Divergences In Political Stability



CEE: Russia And Turkey As Global EM Leaders • Both Russia and Turkey present robust growth stories fitting in

with the wider secular emerging market convergence pattern• Capital investment growth will average 7.0% in Turkey and

7.8% in Russia from 2011-2015.• Both countries will benefit from very stable banking systems,

low leverage ratios and booming middle classes.

46

BMI Russia and Turkey Forecasts

2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f

Russia Real GDP Growth 5.2 -7.8 4.0 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.3 4.3

Turkey Real GDP Growth 0.7 -4.8 8.9 4.3 4.5 5.4 5.4 5.4

Russia GFCF Growth 10.6 -14.4 6.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0

Turkey GFCF Growth -6.2 -19.1 30.0 7.6 7.9 8.2 7.7 7.5

Russia Consumption Growth 10.6 -4.8 3.0 3.0 4.1 5.0 5.5 5.5

Turkey Consumption Growth -0.3 -2.3 6.6 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.5 4.5

Russia GDP, US$bn 1,661 1,223 1,480 1,727 2,100 2,475 2,797 3,129

Turkey GDP, US$bn 730 614 737 822 945 1,084 1,224 1,361

Russia GDP per capita, US$ 11,698 8,620 10,438 12,228 14,929 17,669 20,043 22,520

Turkey GDP per capita, US$ 9,874 8,202 9,732 10,732 12,198 13,852 15,474 17,029


Africa: Favouring The Frontiers• African frontier markets

are among our global favorites

• Commodity export booms in Nigeria, Ghana and Zambia will help drive a concurrently robust expansion in infrastructure investment. This in turn will feed through to local consumers as well.

47

Real GDP Growth Forecasts (%)



This can be your title pageIII. Conclusion &

Appendix


Key Conclusions:1. The recovery is maturing and the demand outlook is improving in the US and

Eurozone. However, the risk profile is substantial, suggesting that the recovery will not be a straight line.

2. Credit Markets are expected to improve further, but a repeat of the 2003-2007 credit boom is not expected.

3. Business investment will form a large component of the global recovery .4. Europe: Core states led by Germany will continue to perform well ensuring

stability and mitigation of crisis risks. Russia and Turkey will be outperformers.5. MENA: The revolutions are a ‘game changer’ and the risk profile has fundamentally

shifted, but economies such as Qatar, UAE and Saudi maintain positive outlooks.6. Africa: Frontier markets including Ghana, Nigeria and Zambia are only at the

beginning of a long-term investment, consumption and export boom.

49



Appendix I: Western Europe GDP Forecasts Table2011f 2012f 2013f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Western Europe REAL GDP GROWTH, % GDP, EURbn GDP PER CAPITA, EUR

Austria 2.0 1.9 1.9 294 306 319 35,067 36,480 37,899

Belgium 1.7 2.1 2.2 365 380 395 31,262 34,094 35,220

Cyprus 1.2 1.8 2.4 18 19 20 21,507 22,207 23,083

Denmark 2.0 2.3 2.6 306 332 364 54,842 59,582 65,222

Eurozone 2.2 1.8 2.0 9,366 9,701 10,059 28,365 29,327 30,357

Finland 2.7 2.2 2.3 187 194 201 34,753 35,858 37,011

France 1.7 1.7 2.0 2,015 2,090 2,171 31,932 33,005 34,196

Germany 3.5 2.0 1.8 2,582 2,678 2,757 31,703 32,963 34,028

Greece -3.1 0.9 1.3 221 224 229 19,479 19,718 20,092

Iceland 2.5 3.2 1.6 11 14 15 35,121 43,164 46,715

Ireland 1.3 2.1 2.2 160 167 174 35,445 36,510 37,411

Italy 1.6 1.9 1.9 1,479 1,533 1,590 24,376 25,257 26,188

Netherlands 2.2 2.3 2.7 619 644 678 37,430 38,749 40,662

Norway 2.0 2.3 2.2 388 428 446 78,849 86,420 89,330

Portugal -1.3 0.8 1.8 168 170 175 15,749 15,912 16,410

Spain 0.7 1.4 1.9 1,074 1,113 1,162 23,082 23,741 24,602

Sweden 4.4 3.0 2.5 392 419 433 36,888 39,315 42,297

Switzerland 1.9 2.0 2.0 426 425 437 54,595 54,291 55,653

UK 1.7 2.2 2.5 1,792 1,998 2,284 28,646 31,784 36,157

Source: Business Monitor International50



Appendix II: Central and Eastern Europe GDP Forecasts Table2011f 2012f 2013f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2011f 2012f 2013f

CEE REAL GDP GROWTH, % GDP, EURbn GDP PER CAPITA, EUR

Albania 5.0 6.5 6.7 10 12 14 3,148 3,747 4,318

Armenia 6.0 5.9 5.7 8 10 12 2,641 3,271 3,812

Azerbaijan 5.9 6.0 6.1 38 45 55 4,196 4,984 5,951

Belarus 6.7 6.4 6.7 44 51 59 4,557 5,320 6,169

Bulgaria 2.7 3.3 4.0 36 41 44 4,735 5,487 5,897

Croatia 1.7 1.9 2.2 44 47 52 9,993 10,691 11,756

Czech Republic 2.4 3.2 3.8 159 176 195 15,052 16,692 18,395

Georgia 5.5 6.3 5.5 10 12 14 2,314 2,884 3,452

Hungary 2.3 2.6 2.8 115 127 138 11,556 12,733 13,907

Kazakhstan 6.3 7.0 7.5 103 129 158 6,302 7,848 9,543

Poland 4.6 3.8 4.0 399 453 513 10,474 11,880 13,496

Romania 2.1 3.3 4.2 135 150 165 6,315 7,068 7,797

Russia 4.3 4.5 4.7 1,204 1,517 1,899 8,527 10,788 13,553

Serbia 3.2 4.0 4.9 32 36 42 4,460 4,962 5,754

Slovakia 3.2 3.5 3.8 70 74 78 12,319 12,757 14,078

Slovenia 2.0 3.0 2.9 37 39 41 18,094 19,005 19,992

Turkey 4.3 4.5 5.4 575 684 834 7,505 8,839 10,656

Ukraine 3.6 4.4 4.7 108 140 175 2,382 3,088 3,888

Uzbekistan 8.5 8.4 8.0 31 37 44 1,064 1,244 1,465

Turkmenistan 9.7 10.0 10.2 15 18 22 3,383 4,084 5,014




Appendix III: Middle East & North Africa GDP Forecasts Table2011f 2012f 2013f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2011f 2012f 2013f

MENA REAL GDP GROWTH, % GDP, EURbn GDP PER CAPITA, EUR

Algeria 2.7 3.7 4.7 143 165 180 3,983 4,518 4,852

Bahrain -1.6 1.6 2.8 22 25 26 27,016 29,992 30,617

Egypt 3.2 3.7 4.9 170 203 257 2,010 2,361 2,943

Iran 1.2 2.4 2.2 325 374 433 4,348 4,936 5,645

Iraq 5.5 5.2 6.6 109 125 142 3,284 3,689 4,091

Israel 3.8 3.3 3.2 174 195 216 22,471 24,782 26,969

Jordan 3.8 4.2 4.5 18 21 24 2,761 3,049 3,471

Kuwait 3.4 4.0 4.0 111 128 137 38,060 42,879 44,840

Lebanon 5.5 4.8 4.8 31 36 40 7,184 8,306 9,225

Libya -23.2 2.7 3.3 50 63 80 7,427 9,315 11,540

Morocco 4.3 4.3 4.2 65 72 81 1,979 2,166 2,434

Oman 4.3 3.7 1.8 38 42 47 12,703 13,816 15,092

Qatar 17.2 7.8 6.6 106 122 143 69,156 78,437 90,024

Saudi Arabia 5.0 5.1 3.6 293 330 375 11,043 12,195 13,583

Syria 4.3 5.0 4.7 49 57 66 2,235 2,510 2,856

Tunisia 1.3 2.3 4.9 30 34 39 2,831 3,181 3,529

UAE 3.3 3.2 3.1 211 235 262 43,865 47,820 52,442

Yemen 2.2 3.3 2.7 25 28 31 1,008 1,086 1,187

Source: Business Monitor International52



Appendix IV: Sub-Saharan Africa GDP Forecasts Table2011f 2012f 2013f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Sub-Saharan Africa REAL GDP GROWTH, % GDP, EURbn GDP PER CAPITA, EUR

Angola 7.6 7.9 6.3 80 111 127 4,118 5,510 6,167

Botswana 5.1 5.0 5.0 12 14 17 5,774 6,818 8,381

Cameroon 3.7 5.7 5.2 19 21 25 916 1,008 1,152

Cote d’Ivoire -5.4 7.7 3.2 19 22 24 886 1,018 1,074

Congo (Rep. Of) 5.9 3.2 2.0 7 7 8 1,768 1,868 1,963

Ethiopia 8.5 7.6 7.0 19 22 25 218 240 273

Ghana 14.0 7.9 7.5 25 35 49 1,001 1,371 1,895

Kenya 5.2 6.3 5.9 29 36 45 701 837 1,025

Mauritius 5.5 5.1 5.3 8 10 11 6,161 7,600 8,730

Mozambique 8.2 6.9 6.5 8 12 16 352 480 627

Namibia 4.5 5.2 5.8 10 13 14 4,827 5,803 6,358

Nigeria 7.8 7.6 7.8 221 282 370 1,359 1,693 2,169

South Africa 3.5 4.0 4.3 308 361 432 6,147 7,130 8,438

Sudan -10.9 2.4 4.8 44 48 61 1,256 1,335 1,669

Tanzania 6.5 6.6 6.3 18 22 26 391 450 537

Uganda 7.0 9.3 9.7 13 16 22 399 499 644

Zambia 7.5 7.2 6.1 14 17 22 1,007 1,238 1,506


53



Appendix V: Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Forecasts2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f

EXCHANGE RATES (average)

Global Benchmarks

US$/EUR 1.43 1.39 1.30 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25

JPY/US$ 88.00 90.75 93.75 97.50 102.50 105.0 107.50

CNY/US$ 6.55 6.43 6.31 6.18 6.06 5.94 5.82

US$/GBP 1.67 1.70 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75

CEEMEA Currencies

RUB/EUR 42.16 37.57 33.47 31.56 31.25 31.25 31.25

TRY/EUR 2.13 1.99 1.83 1.73 1.71 1.70 1.68

PLN/EUR 3.82 3.52 3.36 3.30 3.17 3.13 3.11

ZAR/EUR 9.39 8.83 8.15 7.76 7.68 7.61 7.53

EGP/EUR 8.51 8.14 7.38 7.06 7.05 6.65 6.25

INTEREST RATES (end of period)

US Fed Funds Rate 0.00 2.00 3.50 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25

ECB Refinancing Rate (Eurozone) 2.00 3.25 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00

BoJ O/N Call Rate (Japan) 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.25 0.50

BoE Bank Rate (UK) 1.00 2.25 3.25 4.00 4.50 5.50 5.50

SNB 3M LIBOR Target (Switzerland) 0.75 1.25 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

BoC O/N Rate (Canada) 2.00 3.00 4.25 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50

PBOC 1Y Lending Rate (China) 6.81 6.81 6.81 6.81 6.81 6.81 6.81

CBR Refinancing Rate (Russia) 8.50 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.00 7.00



Business Monitor International• Business Monitor International is a leading provider of global country

risk, industry and financial markets analysis, strategy, data and forecasts

• For over 25 years, BMI has served clients spanning over 140 countries, including more than 400 of the Global Fortune 500 companies

• Our corporate mission is to integrate Country Risk/Financial Markets analysis with Industry/Company Research to best inform strategic decision-making for multinational companies, financial institutions, multilaterals and government

• BMI is an independent company with offices in London, New York, Singapore, and Tshanwe (South Africa)

55


This can be your title pageThank You

Business Monitor [email protected]

Economy & Finance

Where Next For The World Economy