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Weekly market technical report
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Page 1 of 5
Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume
The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 102.84 points, or 0.74%, during
the week, to close at 14,088.82 points. Market capitalization increased by
0.7% to reach QR747.6 billion (bn) as compared to QR742.6bn at the end of
the previous week. Of the 43 listed companies, 27 companies ended the
week higher, while 13 fell and 3 remained unchanged. Widam Food
Company (WDAM) was the best performing stock for the week, with a
gain of 7.9% on 1.7 million (mn) shares traded; the stock is up 27.5%
year-to-date (YTD). Qatar International Islamic Bank(QIIK) was the
worst performing stock, with a decline of 1.5% on only 0.8mn shares
traded. The stock is still up 44.7% YTD.
Barwa Real Estate Company (BRES), Gulf International Services
(GISS) and Industries Qatar (IQCD) were the biggest contributors
to the weekly index gain. BRES contributed 32.2 points to the index’s
weekly gain of 102.8 points. The stock has been one of the best
performing stocks in 2014 YTD with a price return of 42.8%. GISS also
contributed positively to the index, adding 28.3 points; the stock has
also been one of the best performing stocks in 2014 YTD with a gain of
158.4%. IQCD was the third biggest contributor, contributing 18.9
points; the stock is up 14.9% YTD.
On the other hand within the QE Index, QNB Group (QNBK) and
Ooredoo (ORDS) ended in negative territory. QNBK ended the
week shaving 18.7 points off the index; the stock is up 20.8% YTD.
Furthermore, ORDS also contributed negatively to the index by
reducing 8.1 points.
Trading value during the week increased by 6.5% to reach
QR3.7bn vs. QR3.5bn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial
Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for
34.7% of the total equity trading value. Ezdan Holding (ERES) was the
top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of
QR388.1mn.
Trading volume increased by 21.5% to reach 83.3mn shares vs.
68.6mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions rose by
10.6% to reach 35,532 transactions versus 32,119 transactions in the
prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting
for 40.4%. ERES was the top volume traded stock during the week
with total traded volume of 19.7mn shares.
Foreign institutions remained bullish during the week with net
buying of QR49.3mn vs. QR34.9mn in the prior week. Qatari
institutions turned bullish with net buying of QR104.1mn vs. net selling
of QR27.6mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained
bearish for the week with net selling of QR45.6mn vs. net selling of
QR14.8mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors turned bearish with
net selling of QR107.7mn vs. net buying of QR6.9mn the week before.
Thus far in 2014, the QE has already witnessed net foreign portfolio
investment inflow of ~$2.4bn.
Market Indicators Week ended
Sep. 11, 2014 Week ended
Sep. 04, 2014 Chg. %
Value Traded (QR mn) 3,676.9 3,452.8 6.5
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 747,640.6 742,618.0 0.7
Volume (mn) 83.3 68.6 21.5
Number of Transactions 35,532 32,119 10.6
Companies Traded 43 43 0.0
Market Breadth 27:13 31:8 –
Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Total Return 21,013.34 0.7 3.6 41.7
All Share Index 3,559.12 0.7 3.5 37.5
Banks/Financial Svcs. 3,456.50 (0.4) 4.2 41.4
Industrials 4,688.91 1.6 2.8 34.0
Transportation 2,382.41 3.0 3.7 28.2
Real Estate 2,983.12 3.5 3.4 52.7
Insurance 4,164.17 0.6 1.4 78.2
Telecoms 1,657.32 (0.2) 5.6 14.0
Consumer 7,505.97 0.8 0.9 26.2
Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,768.98 1.1 1.7 57.1
Market Indices Weekly Index Performance
Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield
Qatar (QE)* 14,088.82 0.7 3.6 35.7 1,009.39 205,302.1 17.6 2.3 3.6
Dubai 4,961.03 (3.1) (2.0) 47.2 1,743.30 96,079.8 20.6 1.8 1.9
Abu Dhabi 5,180.23 0.8 1.9 20.7 432.25 140,230.2 14.6 1.8 3.2
Saudi Arabia# 11,126.01 0.5 0.1 30.3 14,833.38 603,301.6 21.4 2.7 2.5
Kuwait 7,487.95 0.5 0.8 (0.8) 428.85 112,932.0 18.6 1.2 3.7
Oman 7,545.02 0.9 2.4 10.4 82.10 27,627.5 11.4 1.7 3.7
Bahrain 1,467.90 (0.3) (0.3) 17.5 9.38 54,345.0 11.4 1.0 4.6
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) (#Data as of September 10, 2014)
13,882.49 13,968.91
14,046.61
14,027.4614,088.82
0
12,500,000
25,000,000
13,400
13,750
14,100
7-Sep 8-Sep 9-Sep 10-Sep 11-Sep
Volume QE Index
0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5%
(0.3%)
(3.1%)(4.0%)
0.0%
4.0%
Om
an
Abu D
habi
Qata
r (Q
E)*
Saud
i Ara
bia
Kuw
ait
Bah
rain
Dubai
Page 2 of 5
News
Economic News
QNB Group: Qatar project spend set to pick up during 2014-16 – According to a report by QNB Group (QNBK),
Qatar’s investment spending is set to pick up during the 2014-16 period and drive the country’s economic growth. The government has major infrastructure plans for the run-up to the 2022 World Cup and has been implementing those plans. A number of major projects are now underway that have commitments to be completed ahead of the World Cup. QNBK expects project activity to gain momentum during the 2014-2016 period. This includes, for example, the $45.0bn Lusail real estate development project as well as the $40.0bn Qatar Integrated Rail project. Qatar’s development is underpinned by an array of investment projects, which have been crucial toward driving its economic growth in recent years. QNBK said that the infrastructure projects in construction and transport currently account for the largest share of project spending in Qatar. Construction and transport projects make up 78.6% of the projects currently underway. While oil & gas accounted for the bulk of projects during 2000-2011, their share is budgeted to account for only 9.7% over the next decade. This reflects Qatar’s development path, which is now using revenue from the hydrocarbon sector to build up the non-hydrocarbon economy. The bulk of project budgets in construction are for mixed-use real estate developments. Transport spending includes a range of road, rail, sea and air projects. Few new major projects in the gas sector are likely to be initiated in the next few years owing to the North Field moratorium. In the oil sector, projects to boost production at existing fields have been initiated, such as the Bul Hanine redevelopment. (Gulf-Times.com)
BOI: Qatar businesses remain optimistic for 3Q2014, hydrocarbons sector optimism drops – According to the
Business Optimism Index (BOI), prepared by Dun & Bradstreet for the Qatar Financial Centre, the composite BOI for Qatar's non-hydrocarbon sector stands at 39 for 3Q2014, the same as for 3Q2013. However, it is 8 points lower than in 2Q2014, primarily because of the expected seasonal downturn in business activity during summer and the holy month of Ramadan. Within the non-hydrocarbon sector, manufacturing is the most optimistic for 3Q2014, backed by demand from new projects, an overall strong economy and a rising population. In the finance, real estate & business services sector, finance and insurance firms continue to have a stronger outlook than the real estate and business services segments. However, seasonal factors are the main cause for a sharp fall in the sector’s index. Overall, 61% of firms in the finance, real estate & business services sector expect an increase in sales, 64% expect an increase in orders and 40% expect to invest in business expansion in 3Q2014. Meanwhile, BOI showed that optimism in the hydrocarbon sector was on the decline in 3Q2014 and stood at 1, which was seven points lower than that in 2Q2014, due to escalating raw materials and labor costs. (Bloomberg, Gulf-Times.com)
BOI: Qatar SMEs more optimistic than larger entities –
According to the Business Optimism Index, Qatar’s small & medium enterprises (SMEs) are more optimistic than the larger entities in terms of the current business environment in the country. The BOI, prepared by Dun & Bradstreet for the Qatar Financial Centre, found that 53% of SMEs do not foresee any hindrances to their operations in 3Q2014, while it was only 45% for large companies. Dun & Bradstreet’s Associate Director Prashant Kumar said that it is important to note that SMEs are more optimistic than large companies, given their importance to the development of the overall economy. The survey found that
demand expectations for both SMEs and larger companies are quite similar, but in terms of sales volume, the index for SMEs stood at 49 versus 51 for the larger companies. Large companies are more confident about profitability, while SMEs hold a stronger outlook with respect to number of employees. In addition, the index for net profits for large companies is higher at 41 as compared to 35 for SMEs, while 45% of SMEs plan to increase their headcount in 3Q2014 as compared to 39% among large companies. (Gulf-Times.com)
Real estate deals stood at QR431.4mn between August 31 and September 4 – The Department of Real Estate
Registration said that the volume of trading in real estate registered with the Real Estate Registration Department at Qatar's Ministry of Justice during the period from August 31 to September 4, 2014 stood at QR431.4mn. The list of real estate sales included plots of land, two-story villas, supplements and residential buildings. Most of the sales were registered in the municipalities of Umm Salal, Al-Khor, Al Thakhira, Doha, Al Rayyan, Al Za'ayen and Al Wakra. (Peninsula Qatar)
Market & Corporate News
Mazaya Kuwait sells shares in Mazaya Qatar (MRDS) –
Mazaya Holding Company (Kuwait) has made a partial sale of its investment in MRDS through reduction of its ownership from 5.7% to 1.0% (total of 4.7%). The shares were sold in the Qatar Stock Exchange (QE) for about KD7.7mn, realizing net profit of about KD3.3mn. (DFM)
DSE wins AED110mn district cooling plant contract in Qatar – Drake & Scull Engineering (DSE) a unit of Drake &
Scull International, has won a contract worth AED110mn for a district cooling plant at Lusail City. Under the contract, DSE Qatar will design and build a district cooling plant of 14,250 tons of refrigeration capacity for supplying chilled water to buildings in Lusail City, and is expected to be ready by July 2015. The scope of work includes building of a district cooling plant along with all the associated equipments. Lusail is a new city under construction in Qatar by Lusail Real Estate Development Company. (DFM)
Qatar Exchange plans to raise volume of shares 10 times –
Qatar Exchange’s (QE) CEO Mr. Rashid bin Ali Al-Mansoori told reporters at a conference in Doha that the Value of each share traded on the QE will be reduced to 1/10 of the current value in order to compensate for volume increase. The change in share volume is being studied as a measure to increase liquidity. The implementation is expected next year. (Bloomberg)
QE participates in joint workshop on empowering SMEs in Qatar, QE venture market to begin early 2015 – Qatar
Exchange (QE) participated in the workshop, entitled “Empowering SMEs”, which was hosted by the Doha Bank (DHBK) and held in Doha on September 8, 2014 at the Doha Bank auditorium. The workshop was attended by CEOs and top management officials from QE, DHBK, Qatar Development Bank (QDB), Enterprise Qatar (EQ) , Qatar Business Incubation Centre (QBIC) and UK Trade Investment center, who met together to discuss and highlight opportunities for SMEs to grow and flourish. Meanwhile, QE’s CEO, Mr. Rashid bin Ali Al-Mansoori said that Qatar’s venture or junior stock market listing small & medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is all set to be operational by early 2015. He said that to begin with, five SMEs will be listed on the Qatar Exchange (QE) Venture Market, while several others are in the process of getting approval from the authorities concerned. (QE, Peninsula Qatar)
Page 3 of 5
Qatar Exchange
Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
7.9% 7.7%
5.9%
5.1%
3.8%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
Widam Food Co.
Doha Insurance
Islamic Holding Group
Barwa Real Estate
Milaha
-1.5% -1.5%
-1.4% -1.3%
-1.1%
-2.0%
-1.4%
-0.8%
-0.2%
Qatar International Islamic Bank
Dlala Holding Qatar Islamic Insurance
Salam International Investment
Mazaya Qatar
388.1
350.5
248.0228.1
187.6
0.0
130.0
260.0
390.0
Ezdan Real Estate
QNB Group Industries Qatar
Masraf Al Rayan
Vodafone Qatar
19.7
8.6
5.8 5.6 5.2
0.0
7.0
14.0
21.0
Ezdan Real Estate
Vodafone Qatar United Development
Salam International Investment
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Buy Sell
41.70% 44.63%
23.15% 20.32%
13.11% 14.35%
22.04% 20.70%
Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions
Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions
2,384
1,292
2,388
1,289
(4)
4
(500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Qatari
Non-Qatari
Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
Page 4 of 5
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
The QE Index remained in an upbeat mode for the second consecutive week and ended at a record closing high above the 14,000.0 psychological level for
the first time. The index rallied in most of the trading sessions except Sunday and Wednesday, when it witnessed profit-booking. Meanwhile, the index has
been moving along the ascending trendline and is making higher tops and higher bottoms. We believe the index is in an uptrend and will continue its bullish
momentum further to tag new highs. On the flip side, the index has strong support near 14,000.0, below which the 13,850.0-13,900.0 may provide a good
buying opportunity. Bulls need not worry until the index stays above these support levels. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are positively poised
and are showing no immediate trend reversal signs, which indicates the index has enough steam to move further. Therefore, we do not expect a big
correction in the short-term.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 5 of 5
Source: Bloomberg
Company Name
Price
(September 11)
% Change
5-Day
% Change
YTD
Market Cap.
QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield
Qatar National Bank 207.80 (0.95) 20.81 145,404 14.8 2.8 3.4
Qatar Islamic Bank 117.10 (0.76) 69.71 27,670 19.5 2.4 3.4
Commercial Bank of Qatar 73.50 0.41 24.58 21,825 13.6 1.3 2.3
Doha Bank 62.20 (0.16) 6.87 16,071 11.3 1.5 7.2
Al Ahli Bank 54.80 2.05 29.53 9,053 16.2 2.3 N/A
Qatar International Islamic Bank 89.30 (1.54) 44.73 13,517 17.2 2.6 4.2
Masraf Al Rayan 56.30 0.00 79.87 42,225 23.6 4.1 2.7
Al Khaliji Bank 22.60 0.44 13.06 8,136 15.6 1.4 4.4
National Leasing 28.40 (0.35) (5.80) 1,405 33.8 1.1 5.3
Dlala Holding 63.80 (1.54) 188.69 1,416 18.0 5.2 N/A
Qatar & Oman Investment 17.70 3.51 41.37 558 22.7 1.6 3.4
Islamic Holding Group 105.80 5.91 130.00 423 34.7 7.1 1.6
Banking and Financial Services 287,703
Zad Holding 90.00 0.00 29.50 1,177 10.8 1.5 3.9
Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 13.75 (0.36) (0.72) 159 N/M 0.9 N/A
Salam International Investment 20.00 (1.33) 53.73 2,286 16.0 1.4 5.0
Medicare Group 130.10 (0.69) 147.81 3,662 29.2 4.5 1.4
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 48.25 0.52 20.32 275 23.5 2.0 N/A
Qatar Fuel 221.80 0.73 1.49 18,733 15.7 3.1 3.5
Qatar Meat and Livestock 65.90 7.86 27.47 1,186 21.1 4.8 3.2
Al Meera Consumer Goods 190.00 2.81 42.54 3,800 14.7 2.9 4.2
Consumer Goods and Services 31,279
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 47.60 1.28 12.89 2,262 11.2 1.5 N/A
Qatar National Cement 143.00 1.92 20.17 7,021 16.0 2.8 4.2
Industries Qatar 194.00 1.04 14.86 117,370 18.7 3.9 5.7
Qatari Investors Group 59.20 2.07 35.47 7,360 32.2 3.4 1.3
Qatar Electricity and Water 191.50 1.92 15.81 21,065 14.4 3.5 3.6
Mannai Corp. 116.30 1.39 29.37 5,306 9.4 2.7 4.7
Aamal 16.30 0.06 8.67 9,780 18.3 1.4 N/A
Gulf International Services 126.10 3.45 158.40 23,435 27.6 7.2 1.3
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 33.70 0.60 N/A 42,338 N/A 3.1 1.0
Industrials 235,936
Qatar Insurance 100.00 0.00 87.97 16,054 16.4 3.0 2.0
Doha Insurance 35.00 7.69 40.00 1,750 12.2 1.7 5.7
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 47.60 1.28 19.25 3,293 2.3 0.7 2.6
Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 47.55 (0.63) 69.36 1,056 12.4 1.6 N/A
Qatar Islamic Insurance 87.90 (1.35) 51.81 1,319 15.8 4.6 4.3
Insurance 23,471
United Development 29.65 2.24 37.69 10,499 21.1 1.0 3.2
Barw a Real Estate 42.55 5.06 42.79 16,557 12.7 1.2 4.7
Ezdan Real Estate 19.50 2.63 14.71 51,724 40.0 1.8 1.6
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 24.51 (1.05) 119.23 2,451 13.7 2.1 3.1
Real Estate 81,231
Qatar Telecom 130.70 (0.98) (4.74) 41,866 16.7 1.7 3.1
Vodafone Qatar 21.80 2.16 103.55 18,430 N/M 3.2 0.8
Telecoms 60,296
Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 97.60 3.83 17.59 11,178 12.4 0.9 5.1
Gulf Warehousing 52.40 3.76 26.27 2,492 21.3 3.1 2.9
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 25.10 2.24 23.95 14,056 17.1 3.8 4.4
Transportation 27,726
Qatar Exchange 747,641