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Comparing the Fortune 500 companies in 1955 and 2011, there are only 67 companies that appear in both lists. In other words, only 13.4% of the Fortune 500 companies in 1955 were still on the list 56 years later in 2011, and almost 87% of the companies have either gone bankrupt, merged, gone private, or still exist but have fallen from the top Fortune 500 companies (ranked by gross revenue).
61 in 2014
James O. McKinsey, 1922 “Budgetary control… is urgently needed, as a foundation of control exercised by executives, and as a way to coordinate the activities of functional departments.”
Dr. Jan Wallander, 1997 “Budgetary management is an unnecessary evil”
„Beyond budgeting is a positive idea that uses the abandonment of budgeting as a trigger for improving the entire management model.“
Charles T. Horngren, Littlefield Professor of Accounting, Emeritus, Stanford University
Máš naši plnou důvěru,• Abys řídil tento projekt za X mio • Vedl Y desítek lidí • Řídil jak se utratí Z desítek tisíc md
ale tohle si musíš nechat schválit:
• Školení za 1 000 Kč • Přidělení licence MS Excel • Nábor nového člověka …
a tady máš rozpočet a cíle na příští rok.
"A bad system will defeat a good person every time".
W. Edwards Deming
"To, že někdo krade, neznamená, že dáme do vězení všechny".
Bjarte Bogsnes
Traditional model New model
(centralized functional hierarchy) (decentralized leadership network)
“Bosses” rule! “The market” rules!Top-‐down command and control Outside-‐in sense and respondTop management is always in charge Front-‐line teams are always in chargeCentralized leadership Devolved leadership Fixed, annual processes Dynamic, continuous processesFixed targets and incentives Relative targets/compensationCentralized and bureaucratic control Self-‐control, transparency and peer pressure
Minulost Na základě pravidel Neflexibilní Jednoduché na použití
Aktuální data Na základě hodnot Flexibilní Složitější na použití
„The only metrics that entrepreneurs should invest energy in collecting are those that help them make decisions. Unfortunately, the majority of data available in off-‐the-‐shelf analytics packages are what I call Vanity Metrics. They might make you feel good, but they don’t offer clear guidance for what to do.“
Eric Ries, The Lean Startup
"#NoEstimates is a hashtag for the topic of exploring alternatives to estimates for making decisions in software development. That is, ways to make decisions with 'No Estimates'."
Woody Zuill 2013
„As companies, we are placing critical dollars on investments that have a very low probability of paying off… and we are relying on flawed estimates to mitigate that risk.“
Mike Cottmeyer 2015
„We live in a world where requirements are uncertain, technology is rapidly evolving, people are unpredictable… a world where technology is poorly architected, changes result in unintended consequences, and defects are rampant… AND we have to be able to make and meet commitments with some level of assurance that we can actually solve the business problem within the time and cost allocated to the project.“
Detailní analýza dopředu Detailní odhady
Prioritizace podle odhadů
Stabilní (crossfunctional) týmy High level/Relativní odhady Omezení velikostí investice
Proritizace podle hodnoty (MoSCoW) Lean startup strategie
Impact mapping
Kam dálBeyond Budgeting Institute http://bbrt.org/ Statoil Book http://www.statoil.com/en/About/TheStatoilBook/Pages/TheStatoilBook.aspx
http://noestimatesbook.com/5-no-estimates-decision-making-strategies/ http://neilkillick.com/category/noestimates/