TECHNOLOGY

process by which humans modify nature to meet their needs and wants

relationship of society with its crafts and tools, and to extent to which society can control its

environment

collection of techniques

application of science, maths and arts

Technology vs. ScienceTechnology

– Study of our human-made world

– Deals with“what can be”

Science– Study of our

natural world

– Deals with“what is”

How Does Technology Address Human Needs and Wants?

Transportation

Technology

Medical

Manufacturing

&

Construction

Bio-Related andAgriculture

Nanotechnology

Information Communication

Energy and Power

Environmental

What Counts as Technology?

• Throughout the twentieth century the uses of the term have increased to the point where it now encompasses a number of “classes” of technology:

• 1. Technology as Objects:Tools, machines, instruments, weapons, appliances - the physical devices of technical performance

• 2. Technology as Knowledge: The know-how behind technological innovation

• 3. Technology as Activities: What people do - their skills, methods, procedures, routines

• 4. Technology as a Process: Begins with a need and ends with a solution

• 5. Technology as a Sociotechnical System:The manufacture and use of objects involving people and other objects in combination

The Nature of Technology

• Technology has a number of distinct characteristics:• 1. It is Related to Science?

Although there is certainly a relationship between science and technology, there is, except in certain high technology industries, very little technology that could be classified as applied science. Technology is marked by different purposes, different processes a different relationship to established knowledge and a particular relationship to specific contexts of activity. Change in the material environment is the explicit purpose of technology, and not, as is the case with science, the understanding of nature; accordingly its solutions are not right or wrong, verifiable or falsifiable, but more or less effective from different points of view.

• 2. It Involves DesignAt the centre of technology lies design. That “design is the very core of engineering” is affirmed by the requirement that all degree engineering courses should embody it. The design process in technology is a sequential process which begins with the perception of a need, continues with the formulation of a specification, the generation of ideas and a final solution, and ends with an evaluation of the solution.

• 3. It Involves MakingThe motivating factor behind all technological activity is the desire to fulfil a need. For this reason all designs should be made or realised - whether that be through prototype, batch- or mass- production or some form of three-dimensional or computer model - if the need is to be truly fulfilled, the design is to be legitimately evaluated, and the design activity is to have been purposeful and worthwhile.

• 4. It is Multi-DimensionalNot only may design and production involve co-operation between different specialisms (between, for example, designer, production engineer and materials scientist), but may involve “technologists” in performing a multitude of functions, such as working with others, operating within budgets, persuading decision makers, communicating to clients and working to deadlines.

• 5. It Is Concerned With ValuesTechnology is informed by values at every point. Value decisions may be called for not only in relation to the specific design criteria (i.e. aesthetic, ergonomic and economic judgements, suitability for purpose and ease of manufacture) but also in relation to the rightness or wrongness of a particular solution in ethical terms.

• 6. It is Socially Shaped/ShapingTechnological enterprises are determined not by advances in knowledge nor simply by the identification of needs, but by social interests. Of the potential new technologies available at any one time only a few are developed and become widely implemented. In this way technology is shaped by society, by consumer choice. yet it could also be argued that technology shapes society - the technology of the motor car, for example, has shaped our environment and our whole way of life.

MANAGEMENT Art of getting people together to accomplish desired goals.

Management comprises Planning Organizing Staffing Directing controlling

Manages deployment and manipulation of human resources, financial resources, technological resources and natural resources

Management of Technology An integrated application of engineering, science

and management capabilities.

Process of MOT includes Identification of technologies, Selecting , Procurement, Assimilation, Exploitation of technologies for production

of goods and services.

TM depends upon…

• Leadership• Motivation of employees• Appropriate management of technology

Goal is to create synergy among all factors

Managerial Functions of TM

Managerial Functions of TMs

• GLOBAL TRENDS IN TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT

TECHNOLOGY CHANGES IN TRANSPORTATION SECTOR

DMRC

Constructional difficulties

Delhi, a crowded city, it was not easy to built tracks overhead in all the place of the

metropolice; specially in areas like Chandni Chowk, Chawari Bazar etc.

So we had to built underground as well as overhead tracks.

Very difficult to drill tunnels in areas like Chawari Bazar where underground water level is very high.

Difficult to transport the raw material to the construction site.

Operational difficulties

Initially, DMRC found it difficult to muster enough passengers because of its higher fare

than usual mode of transport

Later on, people started realizing the convenience and comforts provided by

DMRC.

At present, DMRC earns more than metros in other cities of the world.

Some metro stations, being far away, were difficult to reach.

DMRC started feeder buses in collaboration with DTC

It helped in bringing passengers more easily to the stations.

Comparison of DMRC with Indian Railways

Better, safer, cleaner and faster mode of transportation.

At station, security level is very high.

Fully air-conditioned

Parking at stations attracts more passengers and in turn more revenue but the same is not possible with the Indian Railways.

DMRC allows advertisements and therefore it finds an easy way to increase its revenue.

TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT IN IT SECTOR

3G TECHNOLOGY

3G TECHNOLOGY

wireless technology representing a shift from voice-centric services to multimedia

oriented like

video conferencing,

voice,

data transfer,

fax service with high speed communication and broad bandwidth.

Difficulties in implementation of 3G-tech

Expensive input fees for 3G service license, cause of delay in auction

Numerous differences in licensing terms

Expense of 3G phones like i-phones or smart phones.

Lack of buy-in by 2G mobile users for the new 3G wireless

Lack of coverage, because it is still a new service

High price of 3G mobile services Current lack of user need for 3G voice and data

services in a hand held device

TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT IN BANKING SECTOR

E-BANKING or INTERNET BANKING

E-BANKING

In internet banking or e-banking, any inquiry or transaction whether it is

to withdraw cash to deposit a cheque or a request of statement of accounts is processed online without any reference to the

branch (anywhere banking) at any time.

Becoming a “need to have” than “nice to have” service

Benefits

Improve customer access Facilitate the offering of more services Increase customer loyalty Attract new customer Reduce customer attrition

E-banking security management

Need to aware customers about all possible internet fraud

Avoid cyber-café for online transactions

Software programs like – spyware and trojan – are designed to capture key strokes on keyboard, thus collecting consumer’s personal information.

this problem is overcame by virtual keyboard or online keyboard.

Banks are providing two level authentication process

Genuine websites have their address starting with ‘https://’ (not just ‘http://’)

s - literally stands for security

Should change the password frequently and using alpha numeric or characters like $,#,% helps.

• TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT IN HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

• Human resource management is a management function concerned with hiring, motivating and maintaining people in an organization. It focuses on people in an organization.

• OBJECTIVE: Providing trained and well motivated employees

HRM

• Human resource information system or the HR Technology refers to the system and processed at the intersection between HRM and IT.

• To reduce the manual workload of the administrative activities. Organization began to electronically automate many of these processes by introducing speacialised HRMS.

Human Resource Management System encompasses

• PAYROLLS• WORK TIME• HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

MODULE• RECRUITMENT• TRAINING MODULE.

TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT IN BUSINESS PROCESS MANAGEMENT

BUSINESS PROCESS MANAGEMENT

• Business process management (BPM) has been a feature of the technology.

• BPM has been defined as a method of efficiently aligning an organization with the wants and needs of its customers.

• BPM is emerging as a solution to cater the needs of highly differentiated business process.

• Gain a clear complete and comprehensive understanding.

CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT

1. Contacts with its current and prospective customers.

2 CRM software system can be accessed and the information about the customers can be stored.

3. CRM’S goals are to improve services provided to customers and to use customer contact information for the targeted marketing

4. It includes :

A. Business relationship. B. Front office operations. C. Back office operation.

BENEFITS OF BPM

1) Reduces process time.

2) Eliminates Errors and increases productivity.

3) Improves Regulatory compliance.

Technology Management in

Hospitals

Hospital Management System

• Reduce costs and improve the accuracy and timeliness of patient care, accounting and administration, record keeping and management reporting.

• Hospital workflow management, and laboratory management, easily customizable to the requirements of any hospital.

Features of Hospital Management System

• Comprehensive patient record management • Total security and privacy of EMR (Electronic

Medical Record) through world class data servers • Centralized/Integrated Medical Billing Service • Laboratory Information System (LIS) for all

operational, Diagnostic and administrative functions in a laboratory

• Complete web based administration of the system • Highest security at User Level, Module Level and

Form Level • Unique patient ID, generated after OPD and IPD

registration, helps in centralizing the patient related information.

• Track the entire medical history of a particular patient through Doctor’s Module

• MIS reports for the smooth functioning of Hospital Management

• Patients are treated according to the latest scientific findings and using the most modern medical technology. To improve the security of the patients and employees, the clinics have also put a particular focus on high-tech: since the

summer of 2004, MOBOTIX cameras have provided constant

monitoring of the gates and other critical points onthe clinic premises.

Most Modern (Medical) Technology

Central Monitoring• providing central monitoring for all the entrances

and access points

• critical points, such as the cash desks and banking machines or the waiting room in the emergency room, are also under the watchful eye of the front desk staff

• Used for reasons of security and documentation

Technology Management &

Effect's on BPO Industry

DATA MINING

Data mining is, in some ways, an extension of statistics, with afew artificial intelligence and machine learning twists thrown in.Like statistics, data mining is not a business solution, it is just a technology. 

Present Data Mining Technology Used By IBM, Oracle & Microsoft.

An Overview of Data Mining Techniques

Statistics Trees

Neighborhoods Networks

Clustering Rules

Classical Techniques Next Generation Techniques

COMPANY A

COMPANY B

Potential customer’s

•Better Customer Relationship.•Customer Acquisition.•Campaign Optimization.•Scoring Your Customers. •Database Marketing. 

Benefits

3. Relationship of Technology with Wealth of Nation &

Firms Specific Knowledge (competitive advantage).

Productivity growth is indispensable to growth in national income and wealth. Research carried out over the last 30 years demonstrates that technological change is an important contributor to productivity growth, and therefore to growth in the income and wealth of nations. The last decade of the twentieth century presents great challenges and opportu- nities to policy makers and managers concerned with improving technological and economic performance.

Technological change is an essential ingredient in the processes of growth. Investment in technological improvement and in the complementary assets and activities needed to support innovation is a positive sum strategy for improving living standards.

Enhanced capital, labor and technical progress (or equivalently, total factor productivity) are the three principal sources of the economic growth of nations. The rate of growth of labor is generally constrained by the rate of growth of population. For industrialized countries, the rate of growth of the labor force is seldom higher than two percent per annum, even with international migration. Consequently, the rate of growth of capital (physical and human) and technical progress have been found to account for a significant proportion of economic growth by a long line of distinguished economists

• Creation of knowledge: Efforts at creating new capability may be focused on better satisfying the needs already being addressed or on responding to new needs (creating new business). – Includes basic research, applied research, and development.

• Application of knowledge (Doing): Applying newly acquired capability or creative application of already available capability.– Includes product (design engineering), process (manufacturing

engineering, quality control, fabrication, computer-integrated manufacturing), and market (application engineering, physical distribution, and product service).

Firms Specific Knowledge (competitive

advantage)

Technological Innovation in a Competitive Environment

• Decisions about technology and innovation are very strategic and managers need to approach them in a systematic way.

• Two generic strategies a company can use include– Low-cost leadership can drive innovation as companies try

to gain cost advantages through pioneering lower-cost product designs

– Differentiation strategy can drive innovation as companies seek the advantages that come from having a unique product or service that customers pay a premium price for

TECHNOLOGICAL POLICIES AND GENERIC TECHNOLOGICAL POLICIES AND GENERIC COMPETITIVE STRATEGIESCOMPETITIVE STRATEGIES

GENERIC STRATEGYOverall CostLeadership

Overall Differentiation Focus-SegmentCost Leadership

Focus-SegmentDifferentiation

TECHNOLOGICAL POLICIESProducttechnologicalchange

Product devt to reduceproduct cost bylowering materialscontent, facilitating easeof manufacture,simplifying logisticalrequirements.

Product devt to enhanceproduct quality,features, deliverability,or switching costs.

Product devt todesign in onlyenoughperformance forthe segment’sneeds.

Product design toexactly meet theneeds of theparticular businesssegmentapplication.

Processtechnologicalchange

Learning curve processimprovement.

Process devt to enhanceeconomies of scale.

Process devt to supporthigh tolerances, greaterquality control, morereliable scheduling,faster response time toorders, and otherdimensions thatimprove performance.

Process devt totune productionand deliverysystem to segmentneeds in order tolower cost.

Process devt totune theproduction anddelivery system tosegment need inorder to improveperformance.

(Porter, 1983)

MICHAEL PORTER’S MATRIX

High

LowDEG

REE O

F M

AR

KETIN

G

DIF

FER

EN

TIA

TIO

N Outstanding

success

Disaster Cost leadershi

p

Niche/focus

2 3

4 1

HighRELATIVE COSTS

Low

The Strategic Management Process(Source: Viljoen and Dann, 2000, p47)

Strategicanalysis

Strategicdirection

Strategychoice

Strategyimplementation

Strategyevaluation& control

Analysis of the external environment

Analysis of internal skills and resources

Analysis of stakeholder needs andexpectations

Formulate strategic objectives

Identify performance measures

Generate strategic options

Choose a preferred strategy

Measure strategic objectives

Take corrective action

Develop appropriate systems

Acquire and utilise skills and resources

Develop appropriate organisationstructure

Manage the culture

ST

RA

TE

GIC

IN

FO

RM

AT

IO

N S

YS

TE

M

VIS

IO

N M

IS

SIO

N V

AL

UE

S

LEADERSHIPVS

FOLLOWERSHIP

DETERMINANTS OF THE LEADERSHIP - FOLLOWERSHIP CHOICE

• Industry structural characteristics:– opportunity to influence cost or differentiation

– the uniqueness of the firm’s technological skills

– first mover advantages

– the continuity of technological change

– rate of change in process technology or customer purchasing behaviour

– irreversibility of investments

– uncertainty, and

– leadership externalities.

LEADERSHIP EXTERNALITIES LEADERSHIP EXTERNALITIES

• Gaining regulatory approvals and code compliance• Winning customers away from substitutes

(marketing costs, penetration prices)• Customer education on product usage• Investments in infrastructure such as supply sources,

machinery, training repair and service personnel• Investments to improve the performance price or

availability of complementary goods.

Technology Evaluation Matrix

Imp

o rt a

nc e

of

tech

nol

ogy

in i n

du

str y

Technology leader

Catch up or get out

Technology adopter

De-emphasise technology

Leader Laggard

Technology position of the firm in industry

Op

erat

ion

alS

trat

egic

Technology Leadership

Technology Followership

• Following the technology leader can support both low-cost and differentiation strategies– The follower learns from the leader’s experience– The follower can avoid the costs and risks of

technology leadership– The follower can adapt the products or delivery

systems to fit buyers’ needs more closely

TECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP-FOLLOWERSHIP AND GENERIC STRATEGIES

Technological Leadership Technological FollowershipOverall costleadership

First mover on lowest cost productor process technology.

Lower cost of product or processthrough learning from leader’sexperience.

Overalldifferentiation

First mover on unique product orprocess that enhances productperformance or creates switchingcosts.

Adapt product or delivery systemmore closely to market needs (orraise switching costs) by learningfrom leader’s experience.

Focus—lowestsegment cost

First mover on lowest cost segmenttechnology.

Alter leader’s product or process toserve particular segment moreefficiently.

Focus—segmentdifferentiation

First mover on unique product orprocess tuned to segmentperformance needs, or createssegment switching costs.

Adapt leader’s product or process toperformance needs of particularsegment or create segmentswitching costs.

(Porter, 1983)

TECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP-TECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP-FOLLOWERSHIP AND GENERIC STRATEGIESFOLLOWERSHIP AND GENERIC STRATEGIES

Technological Leadership Technological FollowershipOverall costleadership

First mover on lowest cost productor process technology.

Lower cost of product or processthrough learning from leader’sexperience.

Overalldifferentiation

First mover on unique product orprocess that enhances productperformance or creates switchingcosts.

Adapt product or delivery systemmore closely to market needs (orraise switching costs) by learningfrom leader’s experience.

(Porter, 1983)

72

STAGE OF `INDUSTRY’ DEVELOPMENT

Keeping ahead of the field

Cost leadership Raise barriers Deter competitors

Redefine scope Divest peripherals Encourage departures

Imitation at lower cost Joint ventures

Differentiation Focus

Differentiation New opportunities

Leader

Follower

Growth Maturity Decline

Strategic position of organization

Assessing Technology Needs

• In today’s increasingly competitive environment failure to correctly assess the technology needs of the organization can fundamentally impair the organization’s effectiveness

• Assessing the technology needs of the organization involves:– measuring current technologies – Measuring external trends affecting the industry

Measuring Current Technologies• A technology audit helps clarify the key technologies on

which an organization depends• One technique for measuring competitive value categorizes

technologies as:– Emerging technologies are still under development and

thus are unproved– Pacing technologies have yet to prove their full value but

have the potential to alter the rules of competition by providing significant advantage

– Key technologies have proved effective, but they also provide a strategic advantage

– Base technologies are those that are common place in the industry

Assessing External Technological Trends

• There are several techniques that managers use to better understand how technology is changing within an industry– Benchmarking is the process of comparing the

organization’s practices and technologies with those of other companies

– Scanning focuses on what can be done and what is being developed, placing a great emphasis on identifying and monitoring the sources of new technologies for an industry

4. TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE

The Technology Life Cycle

• The technology life cycle is a predictable pattern followed by a technological innovation, from its inception and development to market saturation and replacement.

TECHNOLOGY PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS

• In broad terms the "s" curve suggests four phases of a technology life cycle - emerging, growth, mature and aging.

• These four phases are coupled to increasing levels of acceptance of an innovation or, in our case a new technology. In recent times for many technologies an inverse curve - which corresponds to a declining cost per unit - has been postulated. This may not prove to be universally true though for information technology where much of the cost is in the initial phase it has been a reasonable expectation.

• Role of technology management function in organization is understand the value of certain technology for the organization. Continuous development of technology is valuable as long as there is a value for the customer and therefore technology management function in organization should be able to argue when to invest on technology development and when to withdraw.

TECHNOLOGlCAL INNOVATION

CONTRIBUTION OF TECHNOLOGY IN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PROGRESS

Technology is Practical value of the applied sciences Science And Technology• Technological Progress• The Competitive Advantage of Nations• Technological Innovations to gain competitive advantage• Technological strengths among nations

• Monopoly = one supplier• Introduction phase• Examples?

• Oligopoly = a few suppliers• Growth phase• Examples?

• Pure Competition = many suppliers• Maturity phase• Examples?

Pulling it Together: The Product Life Cycle

• Sales are low to stimulate demand

• Money spent on promotion

• Sales level off

• Higher competition

• Less promotion

• More sales and competition

MonopolyMonopolistic Competition

OligopolyPure Competition

Nontraditional PLCs

• Fads

• Trends

• Niche

• Seasonal

Technology Intelligence & Forecasting

What is Technology Intelligence ?• Technology Intelligence (TI) is an activity that enables companies to

identify the technological opportunities and threats that could affect the future growth and survival of their business.

• The Centre for Technology Management defines 'Technology Intelligence' as "the capture and delivery of technological information as part of the process whereby an organisation develops an awareness of technological threats and opportunities.”

• 'Technology Intelligence' aims to capture and disseminate the technological information needed for strategic planning and decision making.

• Companies install an intelligence system (technology, market, business or competitive intelligence) to collect and analyze information on market, product, and technology changes and on other environmental transformations in order to increase their decision-making quality and competitiveness.

What is Technology Intelligence ?

What is Technology Intelligence ?Why Technology Intelligence? • As technology life cycles shorten and business become more

globalized; having effective T I capabilities is becoming increasingly important.

• T I provides an understanding of current & potential changes taking place in the environment.

• T I provides important information for strategic decision-makers • T I facilitates and fosters strategic thinking in organizations.• If conducted properly, T I leads to enhanced capacity &

commitment to understanding, anticipating and responding to external changes

Levels of Technology Intelligence ?Three levels of T I • Macro level – technological trends & developments which can

influence entire economy / major sectors• Industry or business level - technological trends & developments

which can influence specific industries / businesses• Program or project level – technological trends & developments

which can influence specific technology related program or projectThe above three levels differ in terms of • Breadth of technology• Clarity of trends• Degree of precision of trendsDifferent levels of technology intelligence can be applied /

useful in different context

Levels of Technology Intelligence ?

What is Technology Mapping ?• Technology Intelligence could be both internal as well as

external. Internal technology intelligence is called technology audit.

• External technology intelligence is called technology mapping.

• Mapping technology environment refers to the process of gathering external data and analyzing it to derive the intelligence for major strategic decisions.

What is Technology Mapping ?

What is Technology Mapping ?Process of mapping the technology environment consists of

four interlinked steps:• 1. Scanning the environment to detect ongoing & emerging

changes• 2. Monitoring specific environment trends & patterns• 3. Forecasting the future direction of technological changes• 4. Assessing the current & future environmental changes for

understanding their strategic & organizational implications

What is Technology Mapping ?

What is Technology Forecasting ?• Technology forecasting attempts to predict the

future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques.

• Technology is forecast in two areas:

• 1. Technologies that support internal software development, which includes tools, processes, and methods for producing the software that will end up in products.

• 2. Customer solutions, meaning technologies that will affect (or end up as) features or capabilities embedded in products.

Elements of Technology Forecasting1. Time of the forecast – a single point of time, or a time

span. 2. Approach in Technology Forecasting3. Statement of functional capability / performance

characteristics of technology – a quantitative measure of its ability to carry out the functions.

4. Statement of Probability– Probability of achieving a given level of functional

capability by a certain time; or– Probability distribution over the levels that might be

achieved by a specific time.

Perf

orm

an

ce C

hara

cte

risti

cs

Time / funds / efforts

Physical limits of technology

Why Forecast Technology?

< TechnologyRegime 2

Technology Progression

TechnologyRegime 1 >

Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?Since 1990s rate of technological change has become faster.

Individual, organization or nation affected by technological change as it invalidates previous resource allocation based on historical facts / data.Therefore technology forecast is no more avoidable.

Following factors necessitate forecast of technology:• To maximize gain from events external to an organization• To minimize loss associated with uncontrollable events

external to an organization.

Benefits of Technology Forecasting• Contd …..• To maximize gain from events that are result of action taken by an

organization.• To offset the actions of hostile or competitive organizations• To forecast demand for production and /or inventory control.• To forecast demand for facilities and capital planning.• To forecast demand to ensure adequate staffing• To develop administrative plans & policies internal to an

organization.• To develop policies that apply to people who are not part

of the organization.

Benefits of Technology ForecastingContd …..According to Ralph Lenz, technology forecast can play following specific roles

in improving the quality of technology decisions:• The forecast identifies limits beyond which it is not possible to go.• It establishes feasible rates of progress, so that the plan can be made to

take full advantage of such rates of progress, • It describes the alternatives that are open for choice.• It indicates the possibilities that might be achieved if desired.• It provides a reference standard for the plan. Thus the plan can be

compared with the forecast at any point in time to determine whether it can still be fulfilled or whether because of changes in the forecast, it has to be changed.

• It furnishes warning signals which can alert the decision maker that it will not be possible to continue present activities.

Techniques of Technology ForecastingIdeally technology forecasting should be rational and analytical

based on available pertinent data. In following three situations / circumstances expert opinion may be sought for making technology forecast:

• No historical data exists – as it could be new technology / new area of research & development

• Impact of external factors may be more important than the factors which governed previous development of technology- i.e past data has become irrelevant and cannot be relied for making technology forecast

• Ethical or moral considerations may dominate economic & technical considerations thus seeking lesser reliance on available data.

Techniques of Technology Forecasting• In above three situations, as the historical data is either not

available or it has become irrelevant, group of experts are used to make technology forecast; as there is an old saying -- “Two heads are better than one.” By involving a number of experts, there is pooling of divergent ideas and various dimensions may be analyzed in better manner thus leading to a better technology forecast.

• A. Techniques involving a group of experts are :– 1. Committees– 2. Delphi

• B. Other Techniques based on historical data are : – 3. Exploratory Forecast– 4. Normative Forecast

1. Committees

Key advantages of committees are as under:• Sum total of knowledge is greater than individual

knowledge• Number of factors considered would be more than those

considered by an individual• There is pooling of divergent ideas and various dimensions

may be analyzed in a better manner• Helps in avoiding individual biases• Better knowledge & awareness of one member may

compensate for lack of knowledge of another member.

1. Committees

Few limitations associated with committees are :• Ther is no guarantee that misinformation will be cancelled

out by using a group of experts. There is no guranatee that wrong ideas / judgements will be cancelled out by good ideas / judgements.

• There is usually social pressure to agree with majority, which may be implicit or explicit.

• Reaching agreement becomes a goal in itself. Good forecasts may thus be watered down in a bid to reach a consenus.

1. Committees

Contd …• A strong vocal minority may overwhelm majority , thus

making process vulnerabe to hijack by dominant individuals

• Vested interests may be presented very strongly in the beginning thus setting defined direction in the beginning

• Entire group may share a common bias if a common culture is shared by all of them thus nullifying advantage of the group.

• There may be emotional involvement of certain members, leading to conflicts

• Lot of time and efforts may be consumed in reaching to a consensus

2. Delphi

Three characterstics that distinguish Delphi from conventional face to face group interactions ( like committee) are as under:.

1. Anonymity - anonymity is maintained through questionnaire as under :

• Avoids possibility of identifying a specific opinion with a particular person.

• Originator can thus change his mind without publicity admitting that he has done so.

• Each idea can be considered on its merits, regardless of the fact whether group members may have high or low opinion about originator.

2. DelphiContd …2. Interaction with controlled feed back• Group interaction is through questionnaires and answers to

questionnaires• Coordinator / moderator picks relevant informations & each group

member is informed of status of group’s collective opinion & arguments for & against each point of view.

• Controlled feedback prevents group taking rigid stand & helps to concentrate on its original objectives.

3. Statistical Group response• Delphi presents the statistical group reponse that presents the

opinions of entire group giving both the “Centre” of the group and the degree of spread about that centre

2. Delphi

Limitations / Disadvantages of Delphi• The success of Delphi mainly lies in coordinator.• The experts must carry relevant experience • Further like committee, Delphi is based on opinions and

not on data.

3. Exploratory Forecast• An Exploratory Forecast starts with past & present

conditions and projects these to estimate future conditions.

• The exploratory forecast is based on technology push and is opportunity oriented i.e. searching for future opportunities.

• Exploratory forecast implicitly assumes that required performance can be achieved by reasonable extension of past performance.

• Commonly used techniques of exploratory forecast are : Trend extrapolation.

3. Exploratory Forecast

Trend Extrapolation • Assumption: Time series data from the past contains all the

information needed to forecast the future.• The forecaster extends a pattern found by analyzing past

time series data.• For example: A technological forecasting to forecast future

aircraft speed …. by studying historical time series of aircraft speed records, by finding a pattern (trend), and extending it to the future to obtain a forecast.

4. Normative Forecast• A Normative Forecast starts with future needs and

identifies the technological performance necessary to meet these required needs.

• The normative forecast is based on market pull and is mission / need –oriented i.e. finding ways for meeting future needs.

• Normative forecast implicitly forecasts the capabilities that will be available on the assumption that needs will be met . Thus in case of normative forecast, meeting needs on defined future time is highly important

Exploratory &Normative Forecast

4. Normative Forecast• Few techniques of Normative Technological Forecasting

are as under:– Relevances Trees– Decision Matrices : Horizontal or vertical– Morphological Analysis– Network Techniques– Mission Flow Diagrams etc

4. Normative Forecast

• Morphological Analysis - It is a normative technique developed by Fritz Zwicky which provides a framework for exploring all possible solutions to a particular problem. The morphological analysis involves the systematic study of the current and future scenarios of a particular problem. Based on this study, possible gaps are identified and the morphological analysis further provides a framework to explore other alternatives to fill these gaps.

• Relevance Trees - It is an organized ‘normative’ approach starting with a particular objective and used for forecasting as well as planning. The basic structure looks like an organisational chart and presents information in a hierarchical structure. The hierarchy begins with the objectives which are further broken down into activities and further into tasks. As one descends down, the details increase at every level. The entries when taken together at each level describe the preceding level completely. Also, all activities and tasks depicted should be mutually exclusive

4. Normative Forecast• A mission / control flow diagram (CFD) is a diagram to

describe the control flow of a business process, process or program

• Mission Flow Diagrams - have been originally conceived by Harold Linstone as a means of analyzing military missions. This involves mapping all the alternative routes or sequences by which a given task can be accomplished. The analyst needs to identify significant steps on each route and also determine the challenges/costs associated with each route. The performance requirements can then be derived for each associated technology and the same can be used as normative forecasts.

• .

4. Normative ForecastNetwork Technique • Firstly, the elements of a technological forecasting network

are formulated for the purpose of converting the qualitative description of a technological system to a stochastic (non-deterministic) network form.

• Then, an analytical procedure for the synthesis of the network is given.

• Finally, examples are included for the purpose of illustration.

Technology Acquisition & Transfer

What is Technology Transfer ? • Technology Transfer is the process by which technology is

disseminated. • It involves communication of relevant knowledge by the

Transferor to the Recipient. • It is in the form of technology transfer transaction which

way or may not be a legally binding contract.

What is Technology Acquisition ?

Twoterms technology transfer and technology are normally used interchangeably.

The verb “Acquire” means• To come into possesion of; get as one’s own• To gain for oneself through one’s actions or effortsTechnology Acquisition is the process of acquiring a new

technology, new product, process or service ; by efforts of an individual or an enterprise or any other macro entity. This process can be conducted either internally or externally to the enterprise.

Types of Technology Transfer • Scientific Knowledge Transfer, Direct Technology

Transfer, Spin-off Technology Transfer• Informal Technology Transfer & Formal Technology

Transfer • Internal Technology Transfer & External Technology

Transfer

Internal Technology Transfer Internal Technology Transfer refer to such technology transfers

/ investments where control on the ownership & usage of technology resides with the transferor.

It is a complex process involving following decisions:• Timing : When to introduce new technology / products in

the market? • Location : Where to transfer new technology / products?• Multi-functional teams --Which staff members should be

involved in transfer process ? • Communication methods & procedures – What type of

Communication methods & procedures be adopted to facilitate transfer ?

Barriers to Internal Technology Transfer • R & D goals are not known to Production Department.• Difficulties in stopping current production to test new

products / processes• R&D Department does not understand needs & capability of

Production Department.• In general, Production Department is resistant to innovation

and is bound by routine.• Non-linkage of new technologies to marketing / customer

needs.

Overcoming Barriers to Internal Technology Transfer

• Top management support and participation in the transfer process

• Providing supportive organizational culture• Use of multi-functional teams in the transfer process• Ensuring effective communication in the organization • Bringing R&D closer to production.• Rotation of few person between R&D and production• Linking & participation of marketing elements in the transfer

process.

Steps in Internal Technology Acquisition by a firm 1. Planning new products / services / processes to be offered

– planning must incorporate voice of the customer & user needs

2. Screening new products, processes or services – only viable / feasible items be offered as only one out of 4/5 becomes a commercial success.

3. Initiating development process – must be properly designed and carried out so that it facilitates success. Enterprises should

a. Consist of temporary system capable of adapting to dymanics of change

b. Organize the systems around problem solving

Steps in Internal Technology Acquisition by a firm c. Have flexible management system & replace rigid

management systemd. Use multi-functional teams.e. Proper integration between R&D, Production & Marketing

sub-systemsf. Ensure effective communicationg. Carrying out trial production on small scale and test

marketing h. Improving design & production processes based on

experiences / feedbacki. Commercialization i.e. mass production & sales

External Technology Transfer • In these transfers, control on the ownership & usage of

technology usually does not remain with transferor and it passes on to the recipient, like joint venture with local control, licensing agreement etc.

External Technology Transfer Successful external technology transfer depends upon

following factors:• Type of the technology being transferred• Complexity of the technology being transferred• Transfer mechanism selected• Relationships between the parties – building of mutual trust• Core competencies of the parties & compatibilty thereof• Organizational culture of the parties & mutual

understanding thereof

Methods of External Technology Transfer

• Co-operative & collaborative ventures / strategic alliances • Licensing agreements • Contracting agreements• Enterprise acquisition.

Why External Technology Transfer • Technology already developed saves time & efforts• Sometimes Growth objectives or competitive goals cannot be

reached through internal development• Lack of risk taking ability for innovations• Lack of internal resources (physical & human) for innovation• Firm does not have core competencies to deal with complex

technological developments.• Need to keep up with competitors• Need to cope up with acceleration of technological change• As a part of firm’ strategy --- let other firms take big

risks & it will purchase technology developed by them.

Barriers to External Technology Transfer • Associated costs – usually high prices are required to be paid

in the form of royalities, technical & knowhow fees etc over medium to long term period

• Appropriatesness of technology i.e. its suitability to core competencies and market needs is always a point of discussion and investigation

• Heavy reliances on foreign technology- may make transferee / recipient technologically dependent on external technology providers / transferors even for small issues

• Lack of mutual trust between two parties may hinder full & timely transfer

Barriers to External Technology Transfer • There is risk of loss of control over technology and the

transferee / recipient may use technology in an arbitrary manner

• Transfer may render existing technology & its related products / services / processes obsolete

• Transferee may turn a potential competitor in future.• Mismatch in core competencies of the transferor &

transferee may create difficulties in transfer• Different organisation cultures may create difficulties in

transfer• Lack of effective communication between the parties

may also create difficulties in transfer

Overcoming Barriers to External Technology Transfer

• Proper & well defined technology transfer agreement should be signed

• Proper assessment / evaluation of appropriateness of technology

• Proper assessment / evaluation of compatability of core competencies of the parties

• Building pre-agreement relationships so as to develop mutual trust and so as to understand culture of opposite parties

• Seeking cross cultural training• Ensuring effective communication• Anticipating problems and adopting measures for

facilitating transfer

Steps in External Technology Acquisition by a firm – 1. Identification of Need2. Developing list of suitable technology providers 3. Short listing / selecting suitable technology providers on

the basis …. Cultural compatibility, compatibility of core competences, appropriateness of technology, technical feasibility etc

4. Negotiation5. Agreement6. Payments as per agreement7. Transfer of specifications, blueprints, designs, documents,

CDs to purchaser8. Training of technical personnel of purchaser

Modes of Payment for Technology Transfer • Lumpsum payment or periodical instalments• Royalities as a %age of sales over next few years• Cross-licensing agreements• Contracted supply of output • Issue of equity shares in lieu of technology transferred

Acquisition of Technology By Nation• What factors influence acquisition decision?• What are national strategies for technology acquisition?• Methods of technology acquisition by a nation

Methods of Technology Acquisition By Nation• Attracting TNCs / MNCs

– Through direct measures viz. making a positive list of industries open to FDI

– Through indirect measures - viz by offering incentives & subsidies

• Attracting TNCs / MNCs into natural resource processing & inducing greater value additions

• Using TNCs / MNCs to attract / encourage their overseas suppliers to invest into country

• Improving skills & training of local technologists by involving TNCs / MNCs

Methods of Technology Acquisition By Nation• Developing industrial parks / technology parks to attract high

technology investors• Offering incentives to existing investors to move to more

complex technologies and to increase or upgrade technological R& D base

• Changing competitive environment and existing incentive structure to encourage world class technology & management

• Improving technological access for local firms for outsourcing / technology transfer

• Collecting, organising & disseminating information about technology development

Regulation of Technology Transfer By Nation• The regulation is undertaken in two directions:

– Regulation of import of technology / technology inflows– Regulation of export of technology / technology outflows & Setting

up of Joint Ventures (JV) and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries (WOS) Abroad

• Why regulation of import of technology? – What are advantages & disadvantages of import of technology?

• What are – Guidelines on import of Foreign Technology into India?• Why regulation of export of technology? –What are advantages &

disadvantages of export of technology?• What are – Guidelines on Export of Technology & Setting up Joint

Venture & Wholly Owned subsidiary abroad?