Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side

Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side

November, 2009

Presented by: Morris Segall, President SPG Trend Advisors

THE ECONOMY

Gross Domestic ProductQ1 2001 – Q3 2009

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Contributions to GDP Growth by Component

Q2 2008 – Q3 2009


Source: World Bank

The world-wide recession is over with emerging market economies led by China, India and Brazil leading the overseas recovery. For the first time in post WWII history, the U.S. and Europe are not the locomotives of worldwide economic growth. However both the U.S. and Europe are recovering in the second half of 2009 led by government stimulus programs. Barring a “double dip “ recession next year on the expiration of government stimulus programs, the estimates below of worldwide economic growth in 2010 and 2011 are likely to be exceeded, particularly in developing countries.

*2007/08 data are actual

Historic and Projected Real GDP Growth around the World

2007 – 2011*

Year-over-year Percentage Changes: S&P Reported Operating Earning for Listed Companies

Q1 2001-Q2 2009


Operating earnings reported by corporations included in the S&P 500 index. The data comes from company financial accounts and is not distorted by inventory, “write-off”, tax and depreciation adjustments. It is a truer measure of corporate profitability. Corporate earnings have fallen dramatically since the third quarter of 2007, falling 100% year/year in Q4 of 2008. Operating earnings are showing better year/year comparisons and are stabilizing but are still at depressed levels through Q2 of this year. Further improvement is expected in 2H of this year and 2010.

Industrial Production January, 2008 - September, 2009

Source: Federal Reserve Bank

% decline Jan. 08- Sep. ’09: 12.1%

Capacity Utilization by Status of ProductionJanuary, 2008 - September, 2009


Manufacturers Orders & ShipmentsExcluding Transportation

January, 2008 – September, 2009

Source: Census Bureau

Net Change in U.S. Jobs (Total Non-farm)October, 2005 – October, 2009

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector GroupsOctober, 2007 – October, 2009


The loss of jobs is pervasive throughout the entire economy and has not spared previously immune professional , executive and managerial positions. This has been as much, if not more, a white collar, middle class recession.

Initial Unemployment Claims January, 2009 – November, 2009

Source: Department of Labor

Reflecting the rise in unemployment, new job losses rose dramatically in the first quarter of this year. Since then the trend of new job losses has been declining. However the absolute level of new job loss remains high.

Continued Unemployment Claims October, 2006 – October, 2009


Number of Unemployed on Federal Extended Benefit Programs

July, 2008 – October, 2009


Source: (Left) Census Bureau, (Right) Federal Reserve Bank

Retail Sales Less Food and Fuel September, 2007 – September, 2009

Consumer CreditQ2 2006 – September, 2009

Consumer spending stabilized in the second quarter and improved in the third. Since the third quarter of 2008 consumer spending has been declining and the consumer is currently paying down outstanding debt at record rates. These trends have been negative for the economy in the short term but the reduction of consumer debt and an increase in consumer savings are positive for the economy and the improved creditworthiness of the consumer longer term.

National Saving Rateas Percentage of Personal Disposable Income

Q1 2005 – Q3 2009


Existing Home Sales v. Length on MarketMarch, 2006 - September, 2009

Source: (Left) National Association of Realtors, (Right) Census Bureau

New Home Sales Units Sold v. Length on Market

March, 2006 - September, 2009Housing sales have improved since March and inventories have declined, particularly in new home construction. The improvement in housing reflects the government’s buyer tax credit, the cutback in new home construction, much reduced home prices and lower mortgage interest rates.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index 2006 – August, 2009

Source: Standard and Poor's

Conference Board Consumer Confidence2005 – October, 2009

Source: Conference Board

Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS): Delinquency Rates for All Private-labels*

Q2 2006 – Q2 2009

Source: Mortgage Banker’s Association

*CMBS issued by private entities (i.e. other than Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, or Freddie Mac). The percentage of loans that are 30-days delinquent. The delinquency includes foreclosed estates.

Real Estate & Consumer Loan Delinquency Rates: All Banks and Financial Institutions

Q2 2007 –Q2 2009


Changes in Consumer Price Index in Percentage Terms 2007 v.

2006

2008 v.

2007

6 months ended in July 2009

6 months ended in Aug.2009

6 months ended in Sep. 2009

All items 4.1% 0.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9%Food at Home 5.6% 6.6% -4.5% -3.7% -3.6%Food Away Home 4.0% 5.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6%Rent of Primary Res 4.0% 3.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.5%Owners Equiv of Rent of Prim Res 2.8% 2.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5%Household Energy 5.3% 5.9% -13.5% -12.8% -9.4%Water/Sewer/Trash 5.4% 6.5% 5.7% 7.3% 7.2%Houshold Ops 2.2% 6.0% -0.6% -.8% -0.6%Car Repair 3.3% 5.9% 0.5% 1.5% 2.0%Pub. Transp 7.2% 1.8% -6.5% -.2% 6.1%Medical 5.2% 2.6% 3.2% 3.1% 3.6%Education 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 4.9%Energy 17.4% -21.3% 10.1% 12.9% 21.6%


While inflation has declined precipitously in the recession led by the collapse in energy and commodity prices. After bottoming in July, prices are moving up, driven by the reversal in energy prices. In addition, basic services, healthcare and education prices remain stubbornly high.

Source: Energy Information Administration

Crude Oil Spot Prices in U.S. DollarsNovember, 2004– November, 2009

Nominal Broad Dollar Index* July, 2000 – November, 2009

* Broad Dollar Index: a weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. trading partners.

Source: Federal Reserve Board

THE GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE

Money Supply (M2): January, 2007 – October, 2009


U.S. Federal Budget Deficit, 1995-2011*

*2010-2011 data are projections

Source: Congressional Budget Office


Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Reserve Bank Credit

June, 2008 – November, 2009

Source: (Left) Federal Reserve Bank, (Right) British Banker’s Association

Federal Fund Rates, January, 2008 - November, 2009

3-month LIBOR rates lent in $US January, 2008 - November, 2009

The Fed and European Central Bank have cut interest rates to the banking systems here and abroad thus driving down the cost of bank funds to facilitate bank lending.

What’s on the other side? 2009 - Recession Bottoms in Q2 and GDP Grows in Second Half

Housing bottoms and improves in the second half Unemployment slowly gets “less worse” in the second half of this yearLower wholesale and retail prices help consumer incomes and spending but are offset by rising energy prices, excess capacity in business and consumer efforts to reduce debt and raise savingsIncreased exports as overseas economies recoverObama Administration Increased economic “bailout” and stimulus programs have temporarily stimulated the economy towards recovery in the second half but at the expense of large increases in federal budget deficits and national debt

What’s on the other side? (cont.)2009 – Business

Cost of goods have declined as interest rates, labor costs and commodity prices decline but business is facing weak consumer and business demand Corporate profits overall stabilize in Q2 and improve in second halfFederal stimulus spurs increases in sales and production in second halfWeak consumer spending but pent-up demand building

2010 – Economy Makes Gradual Cyclical Recovery?Increased employment = increased consumer spendingIncreased Corporate Sales = increased corporate profits = increased capital spendingIncreased interest rates and rising prices from higher demand and continuing federal budget deficitsAll based on private sector demand filling void from expiration of Federal stimulus programs in 2009-2010

Where are the opportunities?Healthcare EducationWorker RetrainingAgricultureEnergy ConservationEnvironmental Solutions Electric PowerTransportation – Increase Mass TransitExports

Water Conservation – New Supplies and RecyclingU.S. Government Procurement and Outsourcing – Base Realignment Program (BRAC)Real Estate – Recycle and Rehab Existing Commercial and Residential Property

Source: Recovery.gov

Overview of Where the $787 Billion is Going: Break-down of the Stimulus Dollars by Sectors

ConclusionsThe deep and protracted recession that began in the fourth quarter of 2007 ended in the third quarter of 2009 thanks to federal stimulus and subsidy programs. The artificial stimulus led to positive GDP growth in the third quarter. The continuation of government stimulus is expected to lead to positive GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 and the first half of 2010. The rest of the world, led by accelerated growth in China, is outpacing the U.S. in economic recovery and is poised to grow faster than the U.S. in 2010.Despite government stimulus the U.S. economy still faces near term economic pressures which include:

high cost and reduced availability of creditLow level of corporate profitsContinuing unemploymentcontinued weak levels of corporate capital and consumer spending

Conclusions continued

Severe reductions in State and Local Government spending and eroded municipal financial strength Continued credit pressures in residential housing and consumer lending extending to commercial real estate markets and corporate lendingDespite a second half economic improvement, GDP for 2009 is expected to show little if any growth

Conclusions continuedHowever, a bottoming of the housing cycle and an improvement in unemployment late this year, aided importantly by increased federal stimulus spending in the second half of this year, should set the stage for cyclical capital markets and economic improvements in 2009 and 2010. Indeed, capital markets in the U.S. and abroad have already staged a large recovery off what we believe are market cycle lows in the first quarterAfter an expected cyclical recovery in 2010-2012, we believe longer term socio-economic issues facing this country will result in slower future economic growth for the United States featuring reduced rate of consumer spending growth, high levels of national debt and entitlement spendingIn addition, the availability and cost of credit, particularly to consumers, will be more restricted and expensive in the future, further curtailing private sector spending

Thank You

You can always reach me at [email protected], if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 Please contact us when you require economic and capital markets research & policy analysis.Further information available at www.spgtrend.com

Economy & Finance

Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side