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SPEC BarometerPress Release: General Media

Prepared by: Ipsos

Release date: 25th April 2015

Most serious problem facing Kenya today Proportion stating that:

They or someone in the household ever go to sleep hungry

Everyone in the household gets enough to eat

They experienced famine in their locality in the past year

They expect that there will be famine in the coming year

Poverty: Prevalence of poverty in the locality

Measures to reduce poverty in the locality

Fuel Prices Awareness of drop in fuel prices

Impact of drop in fuel prices

Change in household’s economic position over the last 3 months Kenya’s direction:

Country moving in the right/wrong direction

Main reasons given for saying that Kenya is headed in the right/wrong direction

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Contents

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Methodology

Methodology

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Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015

Sample Size 1,964

Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size)

Universe

Data collection methodology

Sampling error

Face-to-Face interviews at the household level

Poll funding Ipsos Limited

Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living in Urban and Rural areas

+/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)

Statistical Significance: Respondent Numbers and Error-Margins for: Entire Sample, Before 2nd April , 2nd April and After 2nd April

Total Before 2nd April 2nd April After 2nd April0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%1,964

1,364

193

4522.20%2.60%

6.40%

4.60%

Sample Size Error-Margin

5

Sample Structure Statistics

6

RegionSample Frame statistics

(April 2015)*Weighted data

% Population Census as at 2009

Adults (18 years +)%

Central 257 13 2,548,038 13

Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9

Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15

Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10

North Eastern94* 5 929,158 5

Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13

Rift Valley484 25 4,795,482 25

Western 200 10 1,980,090 10

TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100

Quality Control Measures

For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout

Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).

After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).

Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.

Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters.

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Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest possible integrity of obtained results/data

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Respondents’ Demographic Profile:

Catholic

Catholic Charismatic

Mainstream Protestant (ACK, Methodist, Presbyterian, AIC)

SDA

Evangelical

Other Christian

Muslim

Refused To Answer/None

No religion

Public Sector wages/salary

Private sector wages /salary

Gains from self employment/ Business owner/trader

Agriculture (own/household farm)

Livestock

Given money by others

Pension from previous employment

Other

Don’t Know

Refused To Answer

28%

2%

30%

8%

11%

9%

10%

1%

1%

9%

22%

28%

23%

4%

4%

2%

5%

1%

2%

Demographic Profile

Nairobi

Coast

Nyanza

Rift Valley

North Eastern

Eastern

Central

Western

Female

Male

18 - 24

25 - 34

35 - 44

45+

Urban

Rural

Kenyans

10%

9%

13%

25%

5%

15%

13%

10%

51%

49%

28%

29%

18%

25%

37%

63%

100%

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Region

Gender

Age

Setting

Religion

Nationality

Source of Household Income

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Demographic Profile

No formal education

Some primary education

Primary education completed

Some secondary education

Secondary education completed

Some middle level college (not university)

Completed mid-level college (Not University)

Some University education

University education completed

Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD)

Less than 10,000

10,001 – 25,000

25,001 – 40,000

40,001 – 55,000

55,001 – 75,000

75,001 – 100,000

100,001 and above

Has No income

RTA/DK

4%

14%

19%

14%

26%

8%

7%

3%

3%

1%

42%

33%

11%

4%

1%

1%

0%

2%

7%

10

Level of Education

Monthly Household Income (ALL members of the Household)

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Demographic Profile

Self-Employed

Unemployed

Employed in the private sector

Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture)

Casual labour

Employed in the public sector

Student

Retired

Other

41%

18%

11%

10%

7%

5%

5%

2%

1%

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Employment Status

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

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Additional Demographic Profiles

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Estimated Monthly Household Income (By Total)

Less than Shs. 10,000; 44%

Shs. 10,000-25,000; 33%

Shs. 25,000-40,000; 11%

Shs. 40,000 and More; 6%

DK/RTA; 7%

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

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Estimated Monthly Household Income(By All Those Who Gave Estimates)

Less than Shs. 10,000; 46%

Shs. 10,000-25,000; 36%

Shs. 25,000-40,000; 12%

Shs. 40,000 and More; 6%

Estimate (2012) % Kenyans Living in Poverty = 43%Source: CIA Fact Book

(Base: n = 1,833, excluding those who refused or stated that they do not know)

Estimated Monthly Household Income = Shs. 10,000 and Below (By Total, Region)

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Total Coast Rift Valley Western Eastern Nyanza Central North Eastern

Nairobi

44%

56%

50%46% 44% 42% 41% 40%

24%

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Estimated Monthly Household Income – Time Series

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0 to 10,000 10,001 – 25,000

25,001 – 40,000

40,001 – 55,000

55,001 and above

RTA/DK0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

44%

33%

11%

4% 2% 7%

41%33%

10%

4% 3%9%

47%

31%

9% 4% 3%5%

(n=1,964), April 2015 % (n=2,005), November 2014

% (n=2,021), August 2014

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Main Source of Household Income (By Total)

Public Sector wages/salary; 9%

Private sector wages /salary; 22%

Gains from self employment/ Business owner/trader; 28%

Agriculture (own/household farm); 23%

Livestock; 4%

Given money by others; 4%

Pension from previous employment; 2%

Other; 5%

Don’t Know; 1%

Refused To Answer; 2%

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

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Economic Issues

“What would you say is the most serious problem facing Kenya today?” Single Response (By Total)

High cost of living/inflation

Corruption

Unemployment

Insecurity (5%)/Terrorism (6%)

Hunger/Drought

Poverty/Rich-Poor gap

Poor leadership

Crime

Tribalism/Ethnic Tensions

Lack of proper education

None

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

26%

19%

16%

11%

11%

5%

3%

3%

2%

1%

1%

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Base: All Respondents, (n=1,964)

“Generally, what would you say is the most serious problem facing Kenya today?” (By Total, Supporters of Main Political Parties/Coalitions)

Problem Total

(1,964)Jubilee Supporters

(n=867)CORD Supporters

(n=623)%

DifferenceHigh cost of living/inflation 26% 23% 32% +9%

Unemployment 16% 16% 16% 0%

Insecurity/Terrorism 11% 11% 10% -1%

Hunger/Drought 11% 10% 9% -1%

Corruption 19% 22% 18% -4%

Crime 3% 3% 3% 0%

Poverty/Rich-Poor Gap 5% 5% 6% +1%

Poor Leadership 3% 3% 3% 0%

Tribalism 2% 2% 2% 0%

Poor Infrastructure 0% 1% 0% -1%

None 1% 1% 1% 0%

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“What would you say is the most serious problem facing Kenya today?” – Trend Analysis (Top 3 mentions, Single Response)

Apr-11

Jun-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Nov-12

Jun-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

57%

68% 69% 70%

45%

39%

54% 56%

50%

38%33% 33%

7%

26%19%

8% 7% 9%

19%13%

21%

14%19%

13%

15% 16%

5%

16%

2% 1% 2% 3%4%

12%7%

10% 8%

20%

13% 18%

67%

14%

High cost of living Unemployment Crime/Insecurity/Terrorism

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Apr-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Mar-15

*12.05% *14.49% *18.91% *18.93% *15.61% *3.25% *4.91% *7.36% 7.21%* 6.41% 8.36% 6.09% 6.02% 6.31%

*Inflation:Source - KNBS

“What would you say is the most serious problem facing Kenya today?” – Trend Analysis for Corruption, Single Mention

Apr-11

Jun-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Nov-12

Jun-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

6%10%

3%

7%

13%14%

4%7% 8%

10% 8% 8%6%

19%

Corruption

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Jubilee Government Grand Coalition Government

“Does anyone in your household ever go to sleep hungry?” / “Does everyone in your household always get enough to eat?” By Total, Region

23Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Total (n=1,964)

Coast (n=173)

Nyanza (n=257)

North Eastern (n=94)

Eastern (n=293)

Western (n=200)

Rift Valley (484)

Nairobi (n=206)

Central (n=257)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

38%

61%

50% 49%

43%

35%33% 32%

16%

43%45%

52%

41%39%

43% 44%

49%

33%

1st Question: "YES" 2nd Question: "NO"

Any Past Experience/Expectations of Local Famine: by Total, Region

24Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Total (n=1,964)

Eastern (n=293)

Nyanza (n=257)

Coast (n=173)

North Eastern (n=94)

Western (n=200)

Rift Valley (n=494)

Nairobi (n=206)

Central (n=257)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

58%

78%74%

67%64%

62%

49% 48%

36%

48%

54%

67%

55%

49%

41%

48%44%

26%

In The Last One Year In The Next 12 Months

% Saying “YES”

“Is there any poverty in your locality?”: by Total, Region

25Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Total (n=1,964)

Nyanza (n=257)

Coast (n=173)

Western (n=200)

Eastern (n=293)

Nairobi (n=206)

Rift Valley (n=484)

North Eastern (n=94)

Central (n=257)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

78%

91% 89% 87%84%

76% 76%

60%56%

% Saying “YES”

“What are main things that could be done to reduce poverty in your locality?” by Total

Employment opportunities

Agriculture/livestock

Infrastructure (roads, water, electricity)

Education

Governance (anti-corruption, policies, good leadership, constitutional implementation etc.)

Security

Human health

Reduce the cost of living

Donation by Government/NGO to the needy

Family planning

Youth/women empowerment

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

52%

36%

27%

20%

12%

7%

6%

4%

4%

3%

1%

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Base: Those stating that there is poverty in their locality (n=1,533)

Poverty and Famine

% saying that there is poverty in their area/locality

% saying that people in their locality have suffered from famine in the past one year (58%)

% saying that they think there will be famine in their locality within the next 12 months

% saying that they or everyone in their family don't get enough food to eat every day

% saying they or someone in their household ever goes to sleep at night hungry (for the lack of food)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

78%

58%

48%

43%

38%

27Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Awareness of Change in the Prices of Kerosene, Petrol and Diesel

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YES; 80%

NO; 18%

RTA; 1%

DK; 2%

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Reduction61%

Reduction and then slight increase

37%

Same/Other response

3%

Base: Those saying that they are aware of changes in the price of kerosene, petrol or

diesel (n=1,569)

“In the last few months, are you aware of any changes in the price of Kerosene Petrol/Diesel?”

“In the last few months, are you aware of any changes in the price of Kerosene Petrol/Diesel?”

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YES; 51%NO;

48%DK; 2%

Base: Those saying that the drop in the price of kerosene, petrol or diesel has changed their

life in any way (n=782)

Reported Impact of Change in the Prices of Kerosene, Petrol and Diesel

“Has this reduction in the price of kerosene/petrol changed your life in any way?”

“In what way(s)?”

Base: Those saying that they are aware of changes in the price of kerosene, petrol or

diesel (n=1,569)

Saving more

Able to spend more on other things

0% 40%

80%

65%

49%

Change in Household Condition Over the Last 3 Months: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions

30Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=623) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

22%

15%

27%

48%

57%

44%

29%27%

29%

1% 1% 1%

Improved Worsened Stayed the same Not sure

“During the last three months, have the general economic conditions for you and your family…?” – Trend Analysis

31

June 2013 Nov. 2013 Feb. 2014 May 2014 Sept. 2014 Nov. 2014 Apr. 2015

16%20%

17% 19% 21%26% 22%

49%

60%56% 59%

52%

41%48%

34%

19%

26%21%

26% 31% 29%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%

Improved WorsenedStayed the same Not Sure/NR

“In your opinion, are things in Kenya generally going in the right or the wrong direction?” (By Total, Political Party/Coalition Alignment)

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Right Direction Wrong Direction Neither Right Nor Wrong Direction

Not Sure0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

29%

52%

12%7%

13%

74%

8%5%

41%

35%

14%9%

Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=622) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)

“On the whole, thinking about Kenya today, are things generally going in the right or wrong direction?” – Trend Analysis

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Nov. 2013 Feb. 2014 May 2014 Sept. 2014 Nov. 2014 Apr. 2015

29% 30%26%

29%32%

29%

64% 62% 60% 58%52% 52%

7% 7%13% 14% 16%

19%

Right Direction Wrong Direction Neither Right Nor Wrong/Not Sure

Reasons for saying the Country is headed in the right or wrong direction

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Improved economy (cost of living, employment opportunities etc.)

Infrastructure

Good leadership

Fighting corruption

Improving education services

Tackling insecurity/crime/terrorism

Hunger/drought interventions

Health services

Implementing the Constitution

Good relations with development partners

Reduced ethnic tensions

No specific reason

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

41%

18%

11%

8%

6%

5%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

3%

Economic issues (High cost of living, unemployment etc.)

Increase in corruption cases

Insecurity/Crime/Terrorism failures

Poor leadership

Poor/Lack of interventions on hunger/drought

Infrastructure

Tribalism/Ethnic tensions

Violation of human Rights

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100%

61%

19%

8%

8%

2%

1%

1%

1%

Base: Those saying that the country is headed in right direction (n=565)

Base: Those saying that the country is headed in wrong direction (n=990)

Wrong Direction Right Direction

For further information contact: Dr Tom WolfResearch Analysttpwolf1944@gmail.com

Victor RatengProject Manager - Opinion Polls victor.rateng@ipsos.com

Website: www.ipsos.co.ke

Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe

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