The Irish Economy going into 2010

Snapshot of the Irish Economy

January 2010

40000

42000

44000

46000

48000

50000

€, m

illio

ns

2005:Q1 2006:Q1 2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1

Quarterly GDP

1

Source: Central Statistics Office

Seasonally adjusted GDP at constant market prices

Quarterly Gross Domestic Product

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

€, m

illio

ns

2005:Q1 2006:Q1 2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1

Quarterly GDP

1




10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

€, m

illio

ns

1997:Q1 1999:Q4 2002:Q3 2005:Q2 2008:Q1

Quarterly GDP

1




Components of GDP

GDP = C + I + G + (X – M)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

€, m

illio

ns

2005:Q1 2006:Q1 2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1

Other Services Industry & UtilitiesTransport & Comm Building & Const.Public Admin & Defence Agri, Forest & Fish

2


Seasonally adjusted GDP at constant factor cost by sector


-15

-7.5

0

7.5

15

Gro

wth

Rat

e, %

2007:Q4 2008:Q2 2008:Q4 2009:Q2

Other Services Industry & UtilitiesTransport and Utilities Building & Const.Public Admin & Defence Agri, Forest & Fish

3


Growth on previous quarter of GDP at constant factor cost by sector

Quarterly GDP Growth Rates

Quarterly Growth Rates by Sector

2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3Other Services 0.9 -1.6 0.5 -1.3 -1.0 -0.9 -0.2Industry & Utilities -1.6 0.4 -0.6 -12.9 8.7 -0.9 3.0Building & Construction 1.2 -5.1 -7.8 -10.4 -16.0 -7.6 -11.2Public Admin & Defence 0.2 1.5 -0.6 -0.3 -1.4 -2.0 -1.3Agriculture, Forest & Fisheries -5.9 -0.7 -0.3 -10.7 13.7 -0.2 -4.1Transport & Communications -0.6 -2.7 -1.5 -2.7 -4.4 -0.4 -2.0

90

100

110

120

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

Value Index Volume Index

4


Value and volume of retail sales for all businesses

Retail Sales Index

90

100

110

120



4


Value and volume of retail sales for all businesses

Retail Sales Index

90

100

110

120



5


Value and volume of retail sales excluding motor trade

Retail Sales Index

-6

-3

0

3

6

Ann

ual C

hang

e, %

Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09

CPI All Items

6


12 month change in prices from Consumer Price Index

Price Inflation

-6

-3

0

3

6

Ann

ual C

hang

e, %


CPI All Items CPI excl. Mortgage Interest

6


12 month change in prices from Consumer Price Index

Price Inflation

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

Ann

ual C

hang

e, %


Goods Services

7


12 month change in prices, broad sub-indices

Price Inflation

-10

0

10

20

Ann

ual C

hang

e, %


Energy Utilities

8


12 month change in prices, broad sub-indices

Price Inflation

30000

40000

50000

60000

€, m

illio

ns

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Current revenue Current spending

Source: Department of Finance

Current receipts and expenditure

Current Account Projections

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ann

ual C

hang

e, %


FoodClothingHousingTransportCommunications


12 month change in prices, detailed sub-indices

Price Inflation

-20

-10

0

10

20

Annua

l Cha

nge,

%


InsuranceHealthEducationAlcoholChildcare

8


3

6

9

12

15

% o

f la

bour

for

ce

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

Unemployment Rate

9


Seasonally adjusted standardised unemployment rate

Unemployment Rate

600

700

800

900

1000

€, g

ross

per

wee

k

2008:Q1 2008:Q2 2008:Q3 2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2

All sectors Private sector Public sector

10


From the Earnings, Hours and Employment Costs Survey

Gross Weekly Earning

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

€, g

ross

per

wee

k

2008:Q2 2008:Q3 2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2

Finance, ins. & real estate (K,L)Prof., science & tech. (M)Admin & support (N)Public admin & defence (O)Education (P)Health & social work (Q)Arts & entertainment (R to U)

11

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

€, g

ross

per

wee

k

2008:Q2 2008:Q3 2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2

Industry (B to E)Construction (F)Motor trades (G)Transportation & storage (H)Accomm. & food service (I)Information & comm (J)



Gross Weekly Earning

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Num

ber

of e

mpl

oyee

s

2008:Q1 2008:Q3 2009:Q1

Industry (B to E)Construction (F)Motor trades (G)Transportation and storage (H)Accommodation and food service (I)Information and communication (J)



Employment Numbers

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2008:Q1 2008:Q3 2009:Q1

Financial, insurance and real estate (K,L)Professional, scientific & technical (M)Administrative and support (N)Public administration and defence (O)Education (P)Human health and social work (Q)Arts, entertainment and other recreation (R to U)

12

80

90

100

110

Num

ber

of e

mpl

oyee

s

2008:Q2 2008:Q4 2009:Q2

Industry (B to E)Construction (F)Motor trades (G)Transportation & storage (H)Accomm & food service (I)Information & comm (J)



Total Earning Index, by sector

80

90

100

110

2008:Q2 2008:Q4 2009:Q2

Finance, insur & real estate (K,L)Prof, scientific & technical (M)Admin & support (N)Public admin & defence (O)Education (P)Health & social work (Q)Arts & entertainment (R to U)

13


50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

€, m

illio

ns

Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09

Loans to Irish Residents Deposits from Irish Residents

14

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

Data from balance sheets of Irish financial institutions

Loans and Deposits of Irish Residents

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

€, m

illio

ns


Agreed Maturity Accounts Demand AccountsCurrent Accounts Notice Accounts

15



Deposits of Irish Residents

20000400006000080000100000120000140000160000

€, m

illio

ns


Term/revolving loans Residential mortgagesLoans < 1 year Other mortgagesOther loans Instalment/HP/LeasesRepurchase agreements

16



Loans to Irish Residents

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

€, m

illio

ns

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Exchequer current and capital receiptsExchequer current and capital expenditureExchequer balance on current and capital account


Current and capital Receipts and Expenditure and Exchequer Balance

Exchequer Receipts, Expenditure and Balance

30000

40000

50000

60000

€, m

illio

ns

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Current revenue Current spending


Current receipts and expenditure

Current Account Projections

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

€, m

illio

ns2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

VATIncome TaxExcise DutiesStamp DutyCorporation TaxCapital Gains Tax


Receipts from main tax headings

Tax Receipts

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

€, m

illio

ns2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

VATIncome TaxExcise DutiesStamp DutyCorporation TaxCapital Gains Tax


Receipts from main tax headings

Tax Receipts

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

€, m

illio

ns

2002 2004 2006 2008

Health & Children Social & Family AffairsEducation & Science Others


Expenditure under voted headings

Voted Expenditure

National Debt

Economy & Finance

The Irish Economy going into 2010