The Emerging Shape of the Global Economy –

and what it means for SIX and for you

Prabhu Guptaraprabhusguptara@gmail.com

Looking at the past, present and possible futures: three different

standpoints:• Technology• Producer• Consumer

The Generations of Technology

(moving from “craft” technology)•Automate existing processes

The Generations of Modern Technology

• Automates existing processes (up to Artificial Intelligence)

•Builds bridges between parts of a corporation that had little to do with each other

The Generations of Modern Technology

• Automates existing processes• Builds bridges between parts of a corporation that had little to do

with each other

•Cancels traditional divisions and creates entirely new ways in which you can organise a company

The Generations of Modern Technology

• Automates existing processes• Builds bridges between parts of a corporation that had little to

do with each other• Cancels traditional divisions and creates entirely new divisions

in the way you can organise a company

•Destroys the walls between an organisation’s internal divisions

The Generations of Modern Technology

• Automates existing processes• Builds bridges between parts of a corporation that had little to do with each

other• Cancels traditional divisions and creates entirely new divisions in the way you can

organise a company• Destroys the walls between an organisation’s internal divisions

•Eliminates boundaries between industries, time & space

The Generations of Modern Technology• Automates existing processes

• Builds bridges between parts of a corporation that had little to do with each other

• Cancels traditional divisions and creates entirely new divisions in the way you can organise a company

• Destroys the walls between an organisation’s internal divisions

• Eliminates boundaries between industries, time & space

• Fosters the illusion of OMNISCIENCE (Google Glasses, Big Data, Quantum Computing…)

The Generations of Modern Technology

• Automates existing processes

• Builds bridges between parts of a corporation that had little to do with each other

• Cancels traditional divisions and creates entirely new divisions in the way you can organise a company

• Destroys the walls between an organisation’s internal divisions

• Eliminates boundaries between industries, time & space

• Fosters the illusion of omniscience

•Generating the Internet’s peer-to-peer economic & social practices,

just extending FROM music, publishing etc. TO energy, logistics, and manufacturing

The Generations of Modern Technology

• Automates existing processes• Builds bridges between parts of a corporation that had little to do with each other• Cancels traditional divisions and creates entirely new divisions in the way you can organise a

company• Destroys the walls between an organisation’s internal divisions• Eliminates boundaries between industries, time & space• Fosters the illusion of omniscience • Generating the Internet’s peer-to-peer economic & social practices, just extending FROM

music, publishing etc. TO energy, logistics, and material fabrication

(a Collaborative Commons displacing industrial capitalism?)

Three different standpoints:

•Technology•Producer•Consumer

The *Producer’s* Perspective/ Production of goods/ services

•Artisanal: individual producer dependent on friends/family for all necessary support: purchasing, production, sales, delivery….

Production of goods/ services• Artisanal:

•Industrial: based on ownership of capital, land, and other resources - including “loyal full-time employees” – for MASS MANUFACTURE of standardised goods

Production of goods/ services• Artisanal: • Industrial: mass manufacture

•“Manufacturing for one” ( or “custom-manufacturing”): customers interface with existing production system to “assemble” a product or service from pre-existing choices

Production of goods/ services• Artisanal • Industrial• “Manufacturing for one” ( or “custom-manufactured”)

•All the above are dependent on the model:

production-sales

Production of goods/ services• Artisanal • Industrial• “Manufacturing for one” ( or “custom-manufactured”) • All dependent on the model: production-sales

•Assumption: knowledge, expertise, technique reside with the producer

Three different standpoints:

•Technology•Company•Consumer

The *consumer* perspective

•End of WWII reveals a world of scarcity: the problem was simply: • not enough product!!!

Meanwhile, customers… - 1

• From around 2000 AD:

•Education and ever more user-friendly technology helps the public to become increasingly knowledgeable, experienced and savvy

• From around 2000 AD: • Education and technology-user-friendliness lead to increasingly

knowledgeable, experienced and savvy “customers”

•Falling technological, regulatory and financial barriers to entry mean that these customers may just organise things for themselves!

Meanwhile, customers… -2

• From around 2000 AD: • Education and technology-user-friendliness lead to increasingly

knowledgeable, experienced and savvy “customers” • Falling technological, regulatory and financial barriers to entry mean that

these customers may just produce things for themselves…

•…and could even become competitors!

Meanwhile, customers… -3

Meanwhile, customers… - 4• From around 2000 AD: • Education and technology-user-friendliness lead to increasingly knowledgeable,

experienced and savvy “customers” • Falling technological, regulatory and financial barriers to entry mean that these

customers may just produce things for themselves – and even become competitors!

•Companies began to respond by re-configuring their entire business model

Meanwhile, customers… - 5• From around 2000 AD: • Education and technology-user-friendliness lead to increasingly knowledgeable, experienced and savvy

“customers” • Falling technological, regulatory and financial barriers to entry mean that these customers may just produce

things for themselves – and even become competitors!

• Companies began to respond by re-configuring their entire structure:•Engaging in dialogue with customers•Creating/mobilising customer-communities•Co-creating the content of their experience

In the world of information/content:

Blogs, discussion forums, posts, chats, tweets, podcasting, pins,

digital images, video files, audio files, etc. created by users

But what are the implications of “open access”?

• Cost-free access to content, e.g. in peer-reviewed/academic internet journals … but which are, in print, (still!) extremely expensive• Their subscription prices have risen at triple the rate of inflation for

the past three decades (Harvard Magazine, issue 1, 2015)• In 2014, the most expensive journals subscribed by Harvard libraries

were• the monthly Journal of Comparative Neurology (John Wiley) at $28,787 • and • the weekly Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) at

$26,675

Open Content - examples“Open Textbooks”: easily updatable, can be modified

according to a teacher's needs

Open Collaboration

• e.g. Wikipedia

In the world of Information Technology itself

OPEN-SOURCE SOFTWARE .• users have full access to the source code, e.g. for the purpose of study• Can make their own changes and improvements to the source code,

and• Distribute the software to anyone and for any purpose!

We have “user-innovation” even in manufacturing

Nike has given customers online tools to design their own sneakers

Open Advertisement/ PR/ Marketing

Implications for SIX

•Strategy: Niche?, Global?, Regional?, National?

Implications for SIX

• Strategy: Niche?, Global?, Regional?, National?

•So, the current Challenges: • Lowering costs• expanding the product and service offering• extending data and technology leadership• Increasing geographic range/ acquiring new customer groups

Implications for SIX

• Strategy: Global?, regional?, national?, niche?

• Current Challenges: • expanding the product and service offering• extending data and technology leadership• Increasing geographic range/ acquiring new customer groups

•Return of merger mania/ hostile takeovers?: Due to oversupply of exchanges in the world and/or greater availability of capital for the purpose? •What if value chains are reconfigured by e.g. FX being put on

exchanges?

Implications for SIX

• Strategy: Global?, regional?, national?, niche?

• Current Challenges: • expanding the product and service offering• extending data and technology leadership• Increasing geographic range/ acquiring new customer groups

• Return of merger mania/ hostile takeovers?: Due to oversupply of exchanges in the world and/or greater availability of capital for the purpose? FX on exchanges?

•Direct financing?: New developments (bitcoins?, abolition of IP legislation?, loss of licence to operate for companies?…) may mean an entirely new global financial architecture?

• ……..

Implications for you, professionally:

•Improve our skills…•Upgrade our skills…•Take on entirely new skill-sets/ responsibilities…

….AND we need to be T-shaped!!!

For us personally, the most important questions are much more fundamental:

•What is the purpose for which my life was created?•What sort of character ought I to develop – and to encourage in others?•What is a good lifestyle – what should determine my choices?•What is a good society - and how to nurture it?