Technical trades march 2014 - by

www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in

In this report we would try cover the best possible trading setups and the potential risk-reward entry points on a lot of technical parameters. Things to Note

The report has been made on basis of technical analysis and in good faith. Past Performance is not a guarantee to the future. ( so even I have been wrong

many a times before its not necessary I ll be again and vice versa ) Do not over-leverage. Also do take care of the risk management and keep a strict stoploss. If you cannot

afford the stoploss don’t take the trade. One of the ideal ways to trade would be to book partial profits and keep trailing

stoplosses to reduce risk and conserve profits. No trading strategy allocation has been advised as every trader may have a different

style and methodology for allocation of funds.


TECHNICAL TRADES - MARCH 2014

Stock Name Reco Range Reco Price High Target Stoploss CMP

%gains Comments

Asian Paints 490-495 495 544 535 480 539 8.08 All targets done

grasim abv 2850 2850 290

0 3100 2750 2859 0.32 Broken out on 28 March

Infosys 3350-3390 3370 340

0 3800 3240 3260 -3.86

Stoploss hit but maintain hold and re-entry

Wipro 555-535 545 577 650 525 552 1.28

Maintain hold. Did bounce to 575.

Tata Chemicals 275-278 277 287 325 264 286 3.25

Maintain hold and add on dips. Positional buy.

Century Textiles 330-335 336 366 375 320 364 8.33

Getting into the target zone. 1st tgt done. Book at 375 or trail.

VIP Inds 70-75 75 104 100 68 100 33.33

Both targets done of 85/100 in quick time

Hexaware 143-148 146 153 165 137 150.5 3.08

Maintain positive view on the stock. Did retest of support on exact lines. Stoploss can now be 139

Datamatics 47-53 51 52 80 42 51 0.00 It’s a long term bet.

Essel Propack abv 56 56 64 66 53 58.5 4.46

Did the initial target of 60 and made a high of 64. Can book on rise to 60-65 in coming days.

Tata Comm abv 300 300 305 320/345 293 303 1.00

Broke out on 27 March. Hold for short


term.

Jagran 88-91 90 104 105/115 86 101 12.22

Went close to 1st target of 105. Can book on rise in coming days between 102-105

Balrampur Chini 50-53 52 54 68 47 53 1.92

Maintain hold for short and long term both

Bajaj Hind 14-15.5 15 17.3 18/24 13 16.2 8.00

Maintain hold. Bullish on the sector. Can buy as a basket.

Triveni Engineering 17-18 17.5 18.6 25/30 15 17.4 -0.57

A good long term buy.

IFCI abv 26.7 26.7 27.4 30-32 25.5 27.1 1.50

Broken out on 28th March. Hold.

Marksans Pharma 17-17.8 17.8 26.5 21/25 15.5 25 40.45

Target done in quick time. Super move. Can do 40 also in medium term.

Sundaram Finance 620-645 635 684

720-750 600 669 5.35

Maintain hold.

GE Shipping 320-330 326 353 360-390 310 339 3.99 Maintain hold

NRB Bearings 45-46.5 46 53 55 42 51.5 11.96

Book on rise to 53-55. Can keep part holding for long term.



Nifty Technical View

Although we had a cautious view at 6500-6550 as the index was reaching 70 RSI.

The index did dip 100 points but could not reverse strongly and took our trailing stops on the Nifty trade.

Given the momentum and possibility a trendline breakout above 6600 and sustaining 70 RSI this can also end up into a strong pre-election

rally. Previous such breakouts have resulted in a long term trend change

also. ( We will discuss this in detail in the webinar ) Till the index holds 6300-6400 the trend remains positive with

possibility of 6800/7200 also in euphoria. But we have generally seen a overbought zone in Nifty is a good time

for midcap and broader market stocks. The strategy should be to be stock specific with strict stops.


Asian Paints – Channel Breakout

A downward channel with almost 4 attempts on the upside was finally

broken last week above 490. The channel size is around 30 points.

Buy at 490-495 with a stoploss of 480 and a target price of 518/535. Momentum will be seen in the stock above 502.


Grasim Limited

The stock has made 6 attempts at the resistance of 2850. Given that the stock is sustaining in the current move we can expect

the breakout to come in next few sessions. Buy in dips to 2650-2680 or in momentum above 2850 for a target of

3000-3100 and higher. Stoploss at 2600 and 2770 in momentum

trade.


Infosys

After breaking out of the range of 2200-3000 the stock completed the

800 pointer target by touching 3800. Now the stock has seen a correction and retesting the support zones of

3300-3400.

After the gap down there is no further selling with volumes is an indication of a bottoming out in short term.

Buy around 3350-3400 and on dips with a stoploss of 3240 with a short term target of 3600/3800.

The stock is in a long term uptrend and can look at much higher levels. The high of the Y2k boom was around 3500. A 15 year high

cross is generally a very positive signal.


Wipro – High Conviction Bet

The stock was in a range of 300-505 for a period of 3 + years.

Breakout was recently seen above 500-520 after a couple of failed attempts.

The minimum target price in such a range breakout should be 700.

After making an initial move to 600 the stock is now testing its breakout zones.

Buy at 555-535 with a stoploss of 525 and a target price of 650-700 in the next 1-3 months.

This is our high conviction bet for short term and even long term investors.


Tata Chemicals

After a major bottoming out at 240-260 and a retest of the same levels the long term trend change is clear in the stock.

The stock broke out above 275 with very strong volumes and touched a high of closer to 300.

Post that the stock is seeing a drift with low volumes to test the

support zone at 270-275. Buying can be initiated at current levels of 275-280 and on any dips to

268-272 be added if at all it comes. Stoploss of 264 and a target price of 300/325.

This is a good stock for long term investors as well with an eventual target of 400.


Century Textiles

Century Textiles has given a breakout above the inverted head and

shoulders/cup and handle trendline. The volumes have not picked up and the stock is sustaining around the breakout levels.

We may see further momentum above 345 levels.

Can buy around 330-335 with a stoploss of 320 and a quick target price of 360-375.

A momentum buy can be initiated above 345.


VIP Inds

A cup and handle of around 25-30 points.

The stock has seen good volumes on breakout above 70-74 zones. Potential target price could be 85/100.

Buying can be done in the stock at 70-75 with a stoploss of 68.


Hexaware Technologies – Strong Midcap IT Company

A cup and handle pattern with a size of 70-80 points is potentially a

huge return candidate. Also the strong volumes on breakout above 140 & now drifting to test

support on lower volumes is a strong sign. The risk-reward is highly favorable when buying the stock at 143-148

and a stoploss of 137 with a potential long term target of 200-220. A short term target at 160-165.


Datamatics – Techno Funda Small Cap Bet

The stock has crossed 5 year highs with huge volumes post coming out of the Periodic Call Auction System.

It is now giving an excellent entry on retest of the 47-53 support levels.

Fundamentally the stock is at 300 cr market cap and a trailing twelve

months PAT of 42 crores with no debt and a dividend payout ratio of 50%. The profit growth has been 55 % for last 5 years.

At a P/E of 7 for a company which has been a consistent performer over the last 5 years and the best results since listing 10 yrs back

around 2004 it is a candidate for re-rating. High promoter shareholding and dividend track record with a yield of

2% it becomes an interesting long term story. Buy with a technical target price of 80-100 in the long term.


Essel Propack – Setting up for a breakout

The stock has been a good uptrend for last 6 months but the move has been slow and steady.

For last 3 months the stock is in a range of 46-56. We have seen a slight increase in volumes and the stock is very close

to its breakout at 56. One can buy the stock at 53-54 or above 56 with a target price of

60/66 + in the short term. Stoploss at 50 and 53 in momentum.


Tata Communication – Momentum Trade to watchout for above 300

The stock has seen a huge move over the past few months but is now

consolidating for last couple of months. This is a momentum trade only to be initiated above 300 with a

stoploss of 293 and a quick target of 320/345.


Jagran Prakashan – Waiting for Momentum

One of the better bets in the media segment fundamentally and now waiting for some technical momentum.

The stock is on verge of a triangle breakout and almost made an attempt couple of days back.

Buying can be initiated at 88-91 with a stoploss of 86 on closing basis and a target of 105-115.

A good risk-reward buy at current levels.


Sugar Stocks – Trend Change for Long Term

Balrampur Chini

After making a double bottom around 35 the stock has crossed above the channel.

After making 4 failed attempts the stock broke out above 50 and made a quick high to 57.

The volumes are strong and the support retest at 50-53 is a buying opportunity.

Also the sector has been in a downtrend for many years and this could possibly be start of a major uptrend in the stock.

Buy around 50-53 with a stoploss of 47 and a target of 60/68. Some part of the quantity can also be kept for long term.


Bajaj Hindustan

The stock has been in a range of 12-15.5 for the last 6-10 months

making a long consolidation with many attempts at the higher end. Breakout was seen with huge volumes.

This can be a little riskier than Balrampur Chini given the volatility of

the stock but so can be the returns. Buy at 14-15.5 with a stoploss of 13 and a target price of 18-24.

This can also potentially be a long term turnaround and one of the most corrected stocks in the sector due to debts this can be a

multibagger also if things work fine.


Techno Funda Long term Bet in Sugar Space – Triveni Engineering.

One stock which can also be added in the segment is Triveni Engineering which is better placed fundamentally due to the 23%

holding in Triveni Turbines is worth the current market cap. Accumulate the stock at 17-18 with a long term view.


TWO HIGH RISK HIGH RETURN MOMENTUM TRADES

IFCI

IFCI has generally been a punters favorite in momentum and the stock is again close to a resistance which it has not been able to cross.

Sustaining above 26.7 opens up a quick move to 30-32. A stoploss of 25.5 on crossover.

Given the volatility the stock is a high risk high return bet.


Marksans Pharma

Another favorite of the 2008 period the stock had a bad time for last many years.

Recently the stock has moved from1-2 rs to 20 in the last 1 year due to a string of superb results and a total turnaround.

For the last 3-4 months the stock is consolidating before it sets up for another breakout move.

One can buy the stock at 17-18 with a stoploss of 15.5 and a target of 21/25.

Punters expect it to touch even 40 in the medium term. High risk high return stock.


TEAM ANALYSE INDIA

Nooresh Merani

CEO - Analyse India Cell: +91-9819225396 e-mail: [email protected]

N S Fidai Managing Director - Analyse India Cell: +91-9920120878 e-mail: [email protected] Ankit Chaudhary

Technical Analyst and Derivative Strategist - Analyse India Cell: +91-9899899989

e-mail: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]




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Economy & Finance

Technical trades march 2014 - by