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Spring 2015 Economic UpdateUps & Downs in America
Presented By
Kenneth Hunter, MPA
ABFM Executive Committee
Editor, Line Item
May 5, 2015
Where’s the Influence?
Sources for Information
Overall Economic PerformanceAnnualized Chained GDP (2000-Present)
2015q1, $16.3T
$10T
$11T
$12T
$13T
$14T
$15T
$16T
$17T2000q1
2000q3
2001q1
2001q3
2002q1
2002q3
2003q1
2003q3
2004q1
2004q3
2005q1
2005q3
2006q1
2006q3
2007q1
2007q3
2008q1
2008q3
2009q1
2009q3
2010q1
2010q3
2011q1
2011q3
2012q1
2012q3
2013q1
2013q3
2014q1
2014q3
2015q1
Year-to-Year Growth, Annualized Chained GDP (2000-Present)
2015q1, 3.0%2000-2006 Average, 2.8%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2000q1
2000q3
2001q1
2001q3
2002q1
2002q3
2003q1
2003q3
2004q1
2004q3
2005q1
2005q3
2006q1
2006q3
2007q1
2007q3
2008q1
2008q3
2009q1
2009q3
2010q1
2010q3
2011q1
2011q3
2012q1
2012q3
2013q1
2013q3
2014q1
2014q3
2015q1
Inflation Stable
Wild Ride for Oil & Fuel
How’s the Market?
How’s the Market?
Market Stress Remains Subdued
Treasury Yields Stable
Housing Prices Reclaiming Ground
What’s Getting Built?
Labor Market Picture
Hiring Improving
“New Normal” for Labor Force
Federal Finances
State Condition
Local Conditions Better
What’s the Outlook?
Business Activity
Outlook
US GDP3.1% growth for 2015, 2.8% for 2016
JobsAverage growth of 251k/month for 2015
Fed Interest Rates55% expect rate increase in Third Quarter 2015
Small Business not as Optimistic
Consumer Sentiment Improving
The Inequality Question
Other Issues
Health Care
Interest Rates
Infrastructure
Inequality
