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Plan 434 Regional Planning Studio Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sectors of Selected Districts of Bangladesh Submitted by: Group 04 (0615015) (0615019) (0615020) (0615030)

Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

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Shift share analysis is an effective regional planning tool to explore the regional competitiveness and industrial composition. In this study the regional competitiveness among the selected districts of Bangladesh in terms of regional employment figure in the main activity sectors has been tried to develop. The comparative scenario among the several districts has been figured out and the regional influencing factors behind that have been analyzed.

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Page 1: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Plan 434

Regional Planning Studio

Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sectors

of

Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Submitted by:

Group 04

(0615015)

(0615019)

(0615020)

(0615030)

Page 2: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Course No: Plan 434

Course Title: Regional Planning Studio

Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sectors

of

Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Submitted to:

Dr. Ishrat Islam, Associate Professor, Dept. of URP, BUET

Dr. Afsana Haque, Assistant Professor, Dept. of URP, BUET

Anindya Kishore Debnath, Lecturer, Dept. of URP, BUET

Submitted by: Group-04

Imam Hossain (06 15 015)

Tazrina Habib Ananya (06 15 019)

Shahadat Hossain Shakil (06 15 020)

Khaled Bin Abdul Quader (06 15 030)

Level-4, Term-1

Date of Submission: 18th

May, 2011

Department of Urban and Regional Planning

Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology

Page 3: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

i

Acknowledgement

First and foremost, thanks to the merciful and benevolent Almighty to give us patience,

energy and capability to work hard for completing the report. We wish to express our earnest

gratitude and indebtedness to our respectable course teachers Dr. Israt Islam, Associate

Professor; Dr. Afsana Haque, Assistant Professor and Aninday Kishore Debnath, Lecturer

Department of Urban and Regional Planning, BUET for their intimate co-operation and

support, valuable advice, comment, constant encouragement and supervision which have

inspired us to carry out this study successfully. Thanks to the pre-researchers for their

meaningful, thoughtful works which enriched our knowledge.

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ii

Abstract

Shift share analysis is an effective regional planning tool to explore the regional

competitiveness and industrial composition. In this study the regional competitiveness among

the selected districts of Bangladesh in terms of regional employment figure in the main

activity sectors has been tried to develop. The comparative scenario among the several

districts has been figured out and the regional influencing factors behind that have been

analyzed.

Page 5: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

iii

Table of Contents

Contents

Page No.

Acknowledgement i

Abstract ii

Table of contents iii

List of illustrations

iv

Chapter-01: Introduction 1

1.1 Background of the Study 1

1.2 Concept of Shift Share Analysis 1

1.2 Objectives of the Study 2

1.3 Methodology of the Study

3

Chapter - 02: Analysis 4

2.1 Inter District Analysis 4

2.2 Intra District Analysis 5

2.3 Sector wise Analysis

13

Chapter – 03: Major Findings 14

3.1 Findings 14

3.2 Recommendations 14

3.3 Conclusion

15

References

Appendices

Page 6: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

iv

List of Tables

Tables

Page No.

Table-1: Explanation of the Shift Share Components 2

T Table-2: Progressive and Less Progressive Districts of Each Sector

13

List of Figures

Figures

Page No.

Fig-1: Schematic Diagram of the Methodology 3

Fig-2: Shift Share components of different activity sectors

(based on employment data) of Bagerhat district

6

Fig-3: Shift Share components of different activity sectors

(based on employment data) of Khulna district

7

Fig-4: Shift Share components of different activity sectors

(based on employment data) of Faridpur district

8

Fig-5: Shift Share components of different activity sectors

(based on employment data) of Kishoreganj district

9

Fig-6: Shift Share components of different activity sectors

(based on employment data) of Narsingdi district

10

Fig-7: Shift Share components of different activity sectors

(based on employment data) of Rajbari district

11

Fig-8: Shift Share components of different activity sectors

(based on employment data) of Satkhira district

11

Fig-9: Shift Share components of different activity sectors

(based on employment data) of Netrokona district

12

Fig-10: Shift Share components of different activity sectors

(based on employment data) of Shariatpur district

13

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PLAN 434 Regional Planning Studio

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Chapter - 01: Introduction

1.1 Background of the Study

Shift share analysis is a traditional tool in the regional planning discipline. Through a

descriptive analysis of the productive structure, it allows the comparison of regional

differences within a country, region or state. Shift share analysis is one way to account for the

competitiveness of a region's industries and to analyze the local economic base. This analysis

is primarily used to decompose employment changes within an economy over a specific

period of time into mutually exclusive factors. Like other analytical economic tools, the shift

share technique is only a descriptive tool that should be used in combination with other

analysis to provide a summary of a region's key employment potential industries.

1.2 Concept of Shift Share Analysis

As a regional planning tool shift share analysis explores the scenario of economic growth of a

region which is generated by a national growth in that sector, supportive industry mix and

comparative advantage of that particular region. The shift-share analysis divides the change

in local industry employment into three components:

National Growth Share (Nj): The share of local job growth that can be attributed to growth

of the national economy. Specifically, if the nation as a whole is experiencing employment

growth, ("a rising tide lifts all boats"), one would expect total national growth to exert a

positive growth influence on the local area.

Industrial Mix/Proportionality Shift (Pj): The industrial mix or proportionality shift

component reflects differences in industry “mix” between the local and national levels. The

mix-factor examines how national growth or decline of a particular industry translates into

local growth or decline of that industry.

Local Share/Regional Shift/Differential Shift (Dj): This share of local job growth describes

the extent to which factors unique to the local area have caused growth or decline in regional

employment of an industrial group. Even during periods of general prosperity, some regions

and some industries grow faster than others do. This is usually attributed to some local

comparative advantage such as natural resources, linked industries, or favorable local labor

situations.

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The formula of calculating various components of shift share analysis are given below.

National Share, Nj = ∑ [ Eijo(Et/Eo) – Eijo]

Proportionality Shift Component, Pj = ∑ [(Eit/Eio)-(Et/Eo)]Eijo

Differential Shift Component, Dj = ∑ [(Eijt/Eijo)-(Eit/Eio)]Eijo

Total Regional Growth, Gj = Ejt – Ejo = Nj + Pj + Dj

Total Net Shift Component, (P+D)j = Ejt – (Et/Eo)Ejo = Gj – Nj

Where, Ej = total employment in region j; E = total national employment

o,t = initial and terminal period; i = industry subscript

Table-1: Explanation of the Shift Share Components

Net Shift Component + Total Regional Growth>National Growth

- Total Regional Growth<National Growth

Proportionality Shift

Component + Industry of interest is growing

- Industry of interest is declining

Differential Shift

Component + Local competitiveness is present for economic growth

- Local competiveness is absent for economic growth

1.3 Objectives of the Study

To find out the regional employment growth of the selected districts and contribution

of shift share components.

To identify the influential factors of the regional growth and the probable reason

behind that.

To carry out inter regional comparison of shift share components.

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1.4 Methodology of the Study

To achieve the stated objectives employment data according to main activity sector of the

selected 9 districts (Figure: Appendix-A) of Bangladesh has been collected for the two time

frames 1991 and 2001 (Table: Appendix-A1). All districts data has been compiled to find out

the national employment change and the sector/activity wise employment change nationally,

over the time period (Table: Appendix-A1). Then by applying the shift share analysis formula

the regional growth of the selected districts has been determined. During the calculation

process the three different share and shift component (national share, proportionality shift and

differential shift) for every activity sector of every district has been obtained (Table: Appendix-

A2). These values are further used in the analysis stage to carry out the intra and inter regional

analysis. The intra regional analysis in terms of the most influential activity sector in the

regional growth and the factors behind that has been figured out. Inter regional comparison in

terms of regional growth component and activity wise prominent districts have been sorted in

the later stage. After the analysis process the major findings has been listed out and a report

has been prepared to describe and elaborate the whole process.

Figure-1: Schematic Diagram of the Methodology

Project identification and fixation of objectives

Data collection and compilation

Calculation of shift share components

Intra and inter regional analysis

Major findings and report preparation

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Chapter - 02: Analysis

2.1 Inter District Analysis

To achieve one of the objective of the study inter regional or inter district comparison has

been carried out in terms of regional employment growth (Figure-1: Appendix-B). Meanwhile

the shift share components have been also compared among the districts to assess the major

factor behind the regional employment growth (Figure-1, 2: Appendix-B).

The analysis has been carried out by comparing the percentage change values of the national

share, proportionality shift, differential shift and regional growth with respect to the total

employment in the respective region in 1991 (Table: Appendix-B1). The percentage change

instead of absolute values has been used to assess the actual magnitude of the change and to

find out the actual progressive regions. If absolute values are used in the analysis process it

may can give wrong scenario; because if any regions total employment data is already high in

the previous time frame it will give a higher values for all shift share components than a

region which had a lower total regional employment data in the past though the two region

experiencing same kind of growth. So to explore the actual change the percentage change

values has been used for this purpose.

The absolute values of the shift share components have been used to compare the percentage

composition of the regional growth among the regions (Table: Appendix-B1).

The comparison of the shift share component among the selected 9 districts is illustrated in

the next page (Figure-1: Appendix-B). From that illustration it can be summarized that only

Bagerhats regional employment growth crossed the national employment growth during the

study period 1991-2001. The rest of the districts regional employment growth is less than the

national employment growth. The factor responsible for the high regional growth of Bagerhat

is the positive differential shift component of Bagerhat. That means the local advantage/local

factors played an influential role for the regional employment change. The reverse situation

can be found for Narsingdi district. It has the lowest regional employment growth followed

by the highest negative differential shift of employment growth.

From the illustrations, inter district comparison of employment growth and shift share

components (Figure-1: Appendix-B) and the comparison of percentage composition of the

regional growth among the regions (Figure-2: Appendix-B); it can be seen positive regional

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growth occurred mainly because of the national share. Its contribution is the maximum. But

the main influential factor behind the variation of the regional employment growth among the

districts is the differential shift component. In the districts where the differential shift

component is positive it experienced a better regional growth and vice versa. The

proportionality shift component played a weak role in case of regional employment change

for all the districts.

In summary from the above analysis it can be stated that only Bagerhat is expanding better

than the national trend, the rest of the district is lag behind in this case. The national declining

trend of the activity sectors very weakly influenced the regional growth. The local level

growth of the activity sectors in the selected districts is poor and hampering the net regional

employment growth.

The regional growth scenario with respect to the national growth is represented with the help

of a map (Figure-3: Appendix-B2). In that map the selected districts has been classified into 4

classes according to their comparative situation of regional growth with respect the national

growth. From that map it can be summarized that maximum districts experienced a regional

growth ranging half to two-third of the national growth. The percentage value of the regional

employment growth of the respective regions with respect to the national employment growth

is shown in the appendix. (Table: Appendix-B1)

2.2 Intra District Analysis

For intra regional analysis total regional growth of a district and employment growth of each

sector of that district has been considered. Regional growth is consists of three Shift Share

components and each of these components has its distinct impact. To analyze the influence of

these three components on sectoral employment growth of each region column charts has

been used. As for all the activity sectors regional growth is not same, if charts have been

drown with the absolute value of growth of all the sectors it will not represent the

contribution of each Shift Share components properly. So, growth of each sector has been

considered as 100% for a better representation. In Intra regional analysis one aim is to find

out the striking factors for a district and to identify the possible reasons behind that. For

discovering the remarkable factors differential shift component has been considered as it is

the main influential component for a regional growth which separates one region from

another.

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Bagerhat District

In Bagerhat district the national share component has the major impact on total regional

employment growth. More than 50% employment growth of Bagerhat district has been

generated because of national employment growth. It has been also found that the

contribution of Differential shift component is also vital which implies almost 40% share of

regional growth. So it could be said that that Bagerhat has some local advantages which has

influenced the employment growth in this district. But the proportionality shift has a negative

impact on the employment growth. There is a little decrease in total employment because of

the composition pattern of different sectors in Bagerhat.

One remarkable factor of Bagerhat is it has an employment growth in agricultural sectors

more than national employment growth of this sector. When in most of the districts

differential shifts of agriculture sector contain a negative value, Bagerhat has a positive value

which is because of any local influential factor of this district. This influential factor is may

be the huge production of Shrimp in Bagerhat. In this district 36.24% people’s main income

source is fishing and there are 12563 fisheries (Shrimp cultivation) in Bagerhat. Bagerhat has

a large amount of Shrimp production than any other district of Bangladesh which makes great

impact on its employment growth in agricultural sector.

Fig-2: Shift Share components of different activity sectors (based on employment data) of

Bagerhat district

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Per

cen

tage

Activity sectors

Shift share components of Bagerhat district

National Share(N) Proportionality Shift(P) Differential Shift(D)

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-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Per

cen

tage

Activity sectors

Shift share components of Khulna district

National Share(N) Proportionality Shift(P) Differential Shift(D)

Business sector has a negative differential shift in Bagerhat; it states that employment growth

in this sector was less the national employment growth of this sector. One reason behind it

could be the inefficiency of Mongla port in previous years. The Port is the principal Port of

the Bangladesh but it been facing some problems, as a result the loading and unloading of

goods have being very slow. For its inefficiency there could be an increase in employment of

business sector in Bagerhat.

Khulna District

In Khulna district more than 50% employment growth has been generated because of national

employment growth. Proportionality shift has a very mild impact on regional employment

growth but differential shift has negatively influenced the employment growth. It could be

recognized that employment in this district has grew more slowly than the nation because of

regional share effects.

In Khulna differential shift for agriculture has a positive value which implies that this sector

has been flourishing in this district for any local advantage. This advantage is may be the

large quantity of Jute production in Khulna which generates many employments in this

sector. Employment growth of Industry is also fast growing in Khulna then the national

employment growth in industry. It may be for concentration of several industries in Khulna

like Shipyard, Jute mills, Paper mills, Hard board mills, Textile mills, Steel mills. Many new

mills have been established under private ownership and generated a large number of

employments. Because of establishment of some new Educational institutes, Health services,

Banks and NGOs employment in service sector has been also increased.

Fig-3: Shift Share components of different activity sectors (based on employment data) of

Khulna district

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Faridpur District

In Faridpur district influence of national employment growth is very much prominent upon

regional employment growth. More than 75% employment growth in this district has been

generated because of national employment growth. Impact of proportionality shift is very few

and differential shift has a negative influence. It means because of some location

disadvantage there is a few decrease in employment growth.

Fig-4: Shift Share components of different activity sectors (based on employment data) of

Faridpur district

In Faridpur district agriculture sector has a negative differential shift. A possible reason

behind this could be a decline of jute industry due to low prices on the international market

which leads to shutting down of many jute plants. Urbanization could also be a reason behind

decreasing no. of employment in agricultural sector. There is an increase in employment of

transportation and communication sector than the national growth which may be for

construction of new roads

Kishoreganj District

In Kishoreganj district national employment growth has a great influence on regional

employment growth. More than 75% of regional growth has been occurred as a result of

national employment growth. Proportionality shift has a little impact and differential shift has

a negative influence which means that there is a concentration of slow growing sectors.

Employment in agricultural sector in Kishoreganj could not be able to grow as like as the

national employment growth of agriculture. One reason behind it could be a decrease in egg

production which is the main agricultural product of Kishoreganj. In 1998 egg production has

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Per

cen

rage

Activity sectors

Shift share components of Faridpur district

National Share(Nj) Proportionality Shift(Pj) Differential Shift(Dj)

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been reduced due to flood and may people stopped poultry farming. Employment in Industry

sector also could not grow as national employment growth of industry these may be for

shutting down of some mills in Kishoreganj like Kalia Chapra Sugar Mill, Kishoreganj Sugar

Mill, and Badam Tail Mills. Employment in Service sector has been increased may be

because of establishment of new service facilities like Jahurul Islam Medical College and

Hospital which started its journey in a broad scale from 1992.

Fig-5: Shift Share components of different activity sectors (based on employment data) of

Kishoreganj district

Narsingdi District

In Narshindi District more than 60% employment growth has been generated as an impact of

national employment growth. Differential shift comprises a negative value which means that

because of some local factors employment growth has faced obstacle and could not grow as

the national growth.

Employment growth of agriculture sector in Narsingdi could not be as the national

employment growth of this sector. The main reason behind this could be the rapid

urbanization of this district. The urbanization rate of this district is faster than other district

because of close proximity with Dhaka. May be there is shift of employment from

agricultural sector to business and service sector. Narsingdi has large amount of employment

in Water, Gas, Electricity sector other districts. The possible reason behind this would be the

large no. of employment engaged in Narsingdi gas field and Ghorashal power plant.

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Activity Sectors

Shift share components of Kishoreganj district

National Share(N) Proportionality Shift(P) Differential Shift(D)

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Fig-6: Shift Share components of different activity sectors (based on employment data) of

Narsingdi district

Rajbari District

In Rajbari district the main influential component on regional growth is National share. More

than 75% employment growth has been generated because of national employment growth.

But the local factors could not make an employment growth in Rajbari, so the differential

shift is negative for this district. Proportionality shift is also negative which implies that there

is a concentration of slow growing sectors.

In Rajbari employment growth in agriculture could not be as fast as national employment

growth in agriculture which is may be because of urbanization. As Rajbari is located at near

Dhaka, it has faced a rapid urbanization which results a decline of cropped land and as well

as employment in agriculture. Several development projects have been completed within

1991 in Rajbari which generated a large no. of employment in transportation and

communication sector.

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%P

erce

nta

ge

Activity sectors

Shift share components of Narsingdi district

National Share(N) Proportionality Shift(P) Differential Shift(D)

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Fig-7: Shift Share components of different activity sectors (based on employment data) of

Rajbari district

Satkhira District

In Satkhira contribution of national employment growth is very significant on regional

employment growth as national share component contains 80% share of regional growth.

Differential shift and proportionality shift has negative influence which implies that the

composition pattern and local factors could not contribute in regional employment growth.

.

Fig-8: Shift Share components of different activity sectors (based on employment data) of

Satkhira district

In Satkhira there is a remarkable increase in employment of service sector than the national

employment growth of service sector. It may be because of increased no. of Educational

institutes, Health services, Banks, NGOs and Co-operative societies

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Per

cen

tage

Activity Sectors

Shift share components of Rajbari district

National Share(N) Proportionality Shift(P) Differential Shift(D)

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Per

cen

tage

Activty Sectors

Shift share components of Satkhira district

National Share(N) Proportionality Shift(P) Differential Shift(D)

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Netrokona District

In Netrokona dstrict 60% of total employment growth has been took place due to national

employment growth. Proportionality shift and differential shift has negatively influenced the

regional growth.

In Netrokona employment growth in agriculture is less the national employment growth of

agriculture which has influenced by any local factor. May be it happened because of shifting

of large amount of labors to abroad. There is a employment growth in Transportation and

communication sectors more than the national employment growth of this sector which may

be due to several new development projects.

Fig-9: Shift Share components of different activity sectors (based on employment data) of

Netrokona district

Shariatpur District

In Satriatpur district national share component contains 60% share of regional growth and

differential shift has a negative influence on regional employment growth.

Employment in agriculture could not cope up with national growth. As the amount of

cropped land has decreased the employment in agriculture has also decreased. Employment

growth in industry sector is more than the national growth, may be because of concentration

of many cottage industry.

-75%-50%-25%

0%25%50%75%

100%

Per

cen

tage

Activity Sectors

Shift share components of Netrokona district

National Share(N) Proportionality Shift(P) Differential Shift(D)

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Fig-10: Shift Share components of different activity sectors (based on employment data) of

Shariatpur district

2.3 Sector wise Analysis

In sector wise analysis the aim is to compare the employment growth of each sector in

different districts. Employment growth has been calculated in percentage for different sectors

of each district with respect to the employment of that sector in 1991 (Figure-4: Appendix-B3

and Table: Appendix-B4). From the figure it could be easily recognized that which sector is

progressive in which district and which sector is less progressive in which district. This is

shown in Table-2 in a summarized form.

Table-2: Progressive and Less Progressive Districts of Each Sector

Activity Sector Progressive District Less Progressive District

Household Work Rajbari, Shatkhira Shariatpur

Agriculture Khulna, Bagerhat Narsingdi

Industry Khulna, Faridpur Netrokona, Bagerhat,

Shatkhira, Kishoreganj Water/Electricity/Gas Shatkhira, Bagerhat Netrokona, Khulna

Construction Rajbari,Faridpur,

Kishoreganj

Shatkhira

Transportation

&Communication

Netrokona,Rajbari Khulna

Business Kishoreganj Bagerhat

Service Shatkhira Rajbari, Bagerhat

Others Bagerhat Khulna, Netrokona, Shariatpur,Faridpur

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Per

cen

tage

Activity Sectors

Shift share components of Shariatpur district

National Share(N) Proportionality Shift(P) Differential Shift(D)

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Chapter – 03: Major Findings

3.1 Findings

National Growth

National employment growth is in a positive trend (14.4%) over the time period 1991-

2001 reflecting a developing and rising economic scenario.

National employment growth (14.4%) has a significant influence on the regional

growth of each sector of each region.

In most of the region the regional growth is positive because of national share; which

reflect nationally moderate policy making and resource allocation for the regional

level development but the failure of the regions own capability to generate

employment opportunities through local level investments.

Industrial Mix

Household; Agriculture; Water, Gas, Electricity and Service – these four sectors

could not flourish like the National Trend.

Industry; Construction; Transportation and Communication; Business and Others

– these sectors has been expanded more than National Trend.

The overall scenario of the industrial mix in the studied region is the declination of

agricultural and service sector and the rising of industry and construction sector which

is the indicator of a developing countries economy of the third world country.

Regional/ Local Factors

Different local factors have the crucial influence on regional growth such as local

climatic advantage (i.e. salty water of Bagerhat for shrimp production), geographical

location advantage (i.e. location of Khulna district near sea for shipyard industry) etc.

The variation in the regional among the region is mainly because of regional shift.

Most of the regions total regional growth is not highly supported by the local

employment growth because of the lack of prosperity in maximum sector at the local

level.

3.2 Recommendations

Encouragement in the regional/district level investment in the relatively weak sectors

(i.e Agriculture, Service etc.) to generate more employment.

Using the local advantage of the regions in a more fruitful way to generate more

employment by using the limited resources in a more effective way.

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3.3 Conclusion

Regional competitiveness and industrial variation can be analyzed through the shift share

analysis. By using this traditional descriptive tool the potential sectors of any region and the

possible local factors behind that can be identified. The regional shifting of various factors

among various sectors can be analyzed but it cannot be explicitly pinpointed. Though it is a

very effective tool for analyzing the industrial structure of a region it should be used in

combination with the other regional analysis and helping database to assess the reasons

behind the shift and share more explicitly.

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http://www.jimedcol.org/index2.htm

10. Financial Express. Retrieved May 15, 2011, from www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com:

http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=70460

Page 24: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-A

Figure: Selected Study Districts

Page 25: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-A1

1991 Employment Data Zilla Main Activity Sector

Household Agriculture Industry Water, Electricity and Gas Construction Transport Business Service Others District Total

Bagerhat 386441 185695 4136 295 5010 9418 64008 8767 10598 674368

Khulna 506657 190924 34420 1893 10643 21533 104102 10297 220107 1100576

Faridpur 390893 256842 5748 433 5643 9023 51925 5868 78835 805210

Kishoreganj 566613 424505 10068 550 5639 10437 75820 10160 96627 1200419

Narsingdi 407428 233533 46766 941 4913 9270 70528 7071 88806 869256

Rajbari 209667 152979 4106 221 2792 4529 29411 3999 34186 441890

Shatkhira 421945 271596 9809 232 6696 8341 67282 4979 70063 860943

Netrokona 448199 375830 3718 331 3482 3088 45605 5822 72921 958996

Shariatpur 237723 162483 2742 194 2630 3117 27306 2615 36907 475717

Activity Total 3575566 2254387 121513 5090 47448 78756 535987 59578 709050

TableP20: Population 10 years and over by main activity

Zilla Series, Population Census of Bangladesh,1991

2001 Employment Data

Zilla Main Activity Sector

Household Agriculture Industry Water, Electricity and Gas

Construction Transport Business Service Other(Including Hotel) District Total

Bagerhat 405292 228083 3813 505 8086 15405 70644 7911 92064 831803

Khulna 548435 255507 42800 2151 17437 34338 121274 13607 183166 1218715

Faridpur 424471 280585 7081 641 13488 20237 64182 6023 74219 890927

Kishoreganj 613553 442638 8607 677 12799 21730 102262 10410 106899 1319575

Narsingdi 430635 238139 46967 1297 10907 18677 83798 9867 94953 935240

Rajbari 229300 163339 4583 352 7941 11090 36326 3174 34218 490323

Shatkhira 463927 308553 8900 429 7511 15964 82551 8513 76018 972366

Netrokona 482603 404116 3562 357 7720 11221 57008 6069 68469 1041125

Shariatpur 244676 175299 3414 287 4718 6177 34904 2785 35428 507688

Activity Total 3842892 2496259 129727 6696 90607 154839 652949 68359 765434

Table C05: Population 10 years and over by main activity

Community Series, Population Census of Bangladesh,2001

Page 26: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-A1

Population 10 Years and Over by Main Activity in 1991

Sl.

No. Zila

Household

Work Agriculture Industry

Water /

Gas Construction

Transport &

Communication Business Service Other Total

1 Gazipur 402,341 240,346 28,646 1,337 7,446 12,021 58,114 6,727 129,161 886,139

2 Gopalganj 266,084 178,151 3,118 189 3,640 3,340 31,133 4,805 39,962 530,422

3 Jamalpur 489,640 377,579 6,675 605 4,822 5,923 59,488 8,060 103,197 1,055,989

4 Madaripur 274,334 184,521 4,347 350 3,689 3,819 35,084 5,367 50,875 562,386

5 Manikganj 321,028 196,766 6,497 294 4,219 6,160 44,248 4,466 62,517 646,195

6 Mushiganj 283,307 155,929 7,149 1,293 5,681 6,133 64,323 6,820 63,387 594,022

7 Mymensingh 988,534 748,129 13,399 1,365 12,819 20,311 105,727 15,745 196,973 2,103,002

8 Narayanganj 384,381 104,436 67,815 2,940 11,298 21,610 105,128 10,132 211,319 919,059

9 Sherpur 278,380 215,167 3,418 188 2,018 3,430 31,952 3,976 62,489 601,018

10 Tangail 790,210 534,652 42,459 1,338 9,282 16,359 90,973 14,702 126,065 1,626,040

11 Bagerhat 386,441 185,695 4,136 295 5,010 9,418 64,008 8,767 10,598 674,368

12 Khulna 506,657 190,924 34,420 1,893 10,643 21,533 104,102 10,297 220,107 1,100,576

13 Faridpur 390,893 256,842 5,748 433 5,643 9,023 51,925 5,868 78,835 805,210

14 Kishoreganj 566,613 424,505 10,068 550 5,639 10,437 75,820 10,160 96,627 1,200,419

15 Narsingdi 407,428 233,533 46,766 941 4,913 9,270 70,528 7,071 88,806 869,256

16 Rajbari 209,667 152,979 4,106 221 2,792 4,529 29,411 3,999 34,186 441,890

17 Shatkhira 421,945 271,596 9,809 232 6,696 8,341 67,282 4,979 70,063 860,943

18 Netrokona 448,199 375,830 3,718 331 3,482 3,088 45,605 5,822 72,921 958,996

19 Shariatpur 237,723 162,483 2,742 194 2,630 3,117 27,306 2,615 36,907 475,717

20 Barishal 551,356 282,419 9,435 1,118 9,380 10,441 94,438 14,669 144,019 1,117,275

21 Bandarban 53,004 44,068 1,328 37 579 522 6,464 2,606 26,116 134,724

22 Patuakhali 336,937 187,692 3,112 329 8,056 3,653 43,598 12,522 78,200 674,099

23 Rangamati 88,415 64,189 5,372 1,002 1,212 1,424 12,910 2,462 44,818 221,804

24 Pirozpur 302,348 130,710 4,163 326 4,358 4,630 52,972 7,971 66,502 573,980

25 Khagrachari 86,615 55,347 499 44 1,190 762 9,495 1,350 38,277 193,579

26 Bhola 357,755 239,542 2,089 267 4,926 6,273 46,472 5,028 82,515 744,867

27 Jhalokathi 178,975 82,874 3,216 257 3,635 3,511 25,760 5,218 41,420 344,866

28 Barguna 211,193 126,949 1,001 173 3,218 2,246 27,363 5,246 43,566 420,955

29 Pabna 477,476 302,543 25,860 673 7,304 10,379 75,940 10,147 112,775 1,023,097

Page 27: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-A1

30 Nababganj 316,804 182,593 5,529 240 9,181 2,420 52,328 4,497 56,283 629,875

31 Kurigram 412,953 322,863 1,918 202 2,964 4,340 34,570 3,566 53,988 837,364

32 Naogaon 569,172 461,756 9,271 452 4,561 5,880 57,244 7,747 76,714 1,192,797

33 Nator 351,290 271,145 7,041 282 3,719 4,866 40,717 8,071 79,806 766,937

34 Rajshahi 499,843 328,513 7,259 708 7,209 1,017 68,477 7,304 116,825 1,037,155

35 Dinajpur 566,860 462,993 12,419 987 6,755 9,829 66,249 6,457 86,887 1,219,436

36 Gaibandha 487,568 365,518 5,886 418 4,035 8,289 50,403 6,057 69,591 997,765

37 Shirajganj 576,824 354,516 62,508 582 5,823 6,348 82,608 9,152 121,113 1,219,474

38 Nilphamari 345,021 278,061 4,636 300 2,367 3,586 33,690 3,557 58,920 730,138

39 Maulavibazar 335,132 189,563 31,463 995 6,723 6,021 45,743 7,486 132,634 755,760

40 Hobigonj 393,655 274,929 14,162 840 8,791 4,753 46,206 7,143 81,053 831,532

41 Sunamgonj 345,021 341,599 2,986 232 5,016 2,912 45,287 7,158 90,405 840,616

42 Rangpur 544,369 405,451 19,950 708 6,225 10,452 63,597 6,971 107,890 1,165,613

43 Panchagarh 179,069 154,392 1,310 81 1,208 1,497 13,344 1,439 29,670 382,010

44 Thakurgaon 259,146 217,988 2,609 290 2,981 2,604 21,776 2,768 42,519 552,681

45 Sylhet 544,944 279,391 8,141 1,348 15,953 13,667 89,884 110,802 169,694 1,233,824

46 Lalmonirhat 237,337 201,666 1,127 564 1,552 3,224 22,527 2,072 45,373 515,442

47 Narail 173,885 110,573 3,585 65 1,770 3,582 20,315 3,155 30,279 347,209

48 Kustia 391,679 236,734 21,734 547 6,866 7,171 65,986 20,192 84,347 835,256

49 Joypurhat 200,072 166,213 3,391 205 2,342 2,770 23,435 3,092 33,134 434,654

50 Jessore 544,921 363,129 15,226 681 7,504 14,971 75,961 9,867 114,689 1,146,949

51 Bogra 684,069 495,163 12,825 1,023 8,182 17,283 91,504 9,272 141,731 1,461,052

52 Magura 180,786 127,793 3,775 290 2,354 3,825 21,860 2,083 28,110 370,876

53 Meherpur 136,591 105,916 979 71 1,620 1,173 18,307 1,354 19,317 285,328

54 jhenaidah 352,892 266,798 8,342 474 3,947 5,920 46,554 3,097 57,881 745,905

55 Chuadanga 217,638 162,445 6,367 219 2,398 3,537 28,947 4,070 28,544 454,165

56 Lakhshmipur 332,407 178,553 4,381 439 4,707 8,024 43,760 7,377 63,932 643,580

57 Cox's Bazar 342,764 162,920 6,463 555 4,192 8,917 63,371 7,716 119,054 715,952

58 Feni 280,396 117,540 6,178 562 6,002 9,079 41,431 8,240 61,717 531,145

59 Chittagong 1,289,999 395,281 128,812 8,262 36,676 72,266 281,921 47,947 527,154 2,788,318

60 Brahmanbaria 529,759 328,958 13,846 1,379 6,698 8,854 75,828 8,435 99,324 1,073,081

Page 28: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-A1

61 Chandpur 511,680 265,666 8,660 1,470 8,849 11,296 72,135 10,618 89,192 979,566

62 Noakhali 561,724 244,941 10,057 1,015 6,648 12,614 76,825 10,146 117,853 1,041,823

63 Comilla 1,008,730 563,107 18,670 2,695 15,876 31,053 133,103 20,519 192,917 1,986,670

64 Dhaka 1,273,363 195,702 163,464 15,683 72,482 145,756 455,142 78,828 1,324,591 3,725,011

Activity Total 26,676,242 16,286,765 996,081 64,079 450,396 681,499 4,028,604 665,852 6,986,334 56,835,852

Population 10 Years and Over by Main Activity in 2001

Sl.

No. Zila

Household

Work Agriculture Industry

Water /

Electricity

/ Gas

Construction Transport Business Service

Other

(with

Hotel)

District Total

1 Gazipur 443,925 260,343 90,930 1,499 22,416 30,514 90,890 24,128 134,889 1,099,534

2 Gopalganj 273,481 193,533 2,316 309 7,615 7,370 36,371 5,325 38,172 564,492

3 Jamalpur 527,519 390,989 7,047 550 9,963 17,031 66,031 6,864 94,148 1,120,142

4 Madaripur 254,821 190,315 3,494 232 7,903 7,135 40,800 4,850 39,073 548,623

5 Manikganj 340,500 213,111 6,426 581 8,010 12,720 51,603 3,799 66,477 703,227

6 Munshiganj 299,300 138,676 8,248 626 11,583 12,735 73,276 3,812 73,492 621,748

7 Mymensingh 1,036,382 772,352 12,132 1,446 23,650 41,915 135,888 18,558 237,179 2,279,502

8 Narayanganj 446,297 126,213 97,303 2,026 21,061 38,031 129,557 8,280 240,823 1,109,591

9 Sherpur 309,495 230,391 4,862 309 4,919 11,334 37,256 3,089 72,248 673,903

10 Tangail 835,758 559,129 26,318 990 17,329 32,312 116,123 9,789 156,272 1,754,020

11 Bagerhat 405,292 228,083 3,813 505 8,086 15,405 70,644 7,911 92,064 831,803

12 Khulna 548,435 255,507 42,800 2,151 17,437 34,338 121,274 13,607 183,166 1,218,715

13 Faridpur 424,471 280,585 7,081 641 13,488 20,237 64,182 6,023 74,219 890,927

14 Kishoreganj 613,553 442,638 8,607 677 12,799 21,730 102,262 10,410 106,899 1,319,575

15 Narsingdi 430,635 238,139 46,967 1,297 10,907 18,677 83,798 9,867 94,953 935,240

Page 29: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-A1 16 Rajbari 229,300 163,339 4,583 352 7,941 11,090 36,326 3,174 34,218 490,323

17 Shatkhira 463,927 308,553 8,900 429 7,511 15,964 82,551 8,513 76,018 972,366

18 Netrokona 482,603 404,116 3,562 357 7,720 11,221 57,008 6,069 68,469 1,041,125

19 Shariatpur 244,676 175,299 3,414 287 4,718 6,177 34,904 2,785 35,428 507,688

20 Barishal 547,441 300,617 9,496 1,496 17,472 18,512 102,324 20,701 114,162 1,132,221

21 Bandarban 62,585 300,617 1,389 57 2,103 1,146 8,325 1,183 24,529 401,934

22 Patuakhali 374,458 51,613 3,710 426 9,669 9,244 54,068 6,434 72,198 581,820

23 Rangamati 112,500 223,815 778 160 2,187 1,951 16,541 3,574 49,860 411,366

24 Pirozpur 275,514 86,049 3,110 3,391 6,476 7,459 53,189 4,491 520,518 960,197

25 Khagrachari 123,902 152,882 993 71 2,833 2,405 14,860 3,453 39,012 340,411

26 Bhola 383,533 79,314 2,257 568 7,414 10,898 56,811 6,066 93,820 640,681

27 Jhalokathi 176,281 245,726 2,163 314 5,069 5,191 29,337 3,466 37,312 504,859

28 Barguna

29 Pabna 510,446 339,197 26,515 780 14,038 24,440 81,495 8,385 109,248 1,114,544

30 Nababganj 361,241 214,591 4,069 313 13,181 7,135 54,687 6,429 54,722 716,368

31 Kurigram 461,630 336,630 2,550 277 5,692 10,161 45,150 3,626 69,227 934,943

32 Naogaon 630,928 515,352 9,649 545 8,257 17,724 66,068 6,707 79,997 1,335,227

33 Nator 404,503 311,322 5,711 310 6,466 12,148 46,683 6,357 58,270 851,770

34 Rajshahi 589,119 381,551 8,021 1,020 13,985 25,820 82,322 7,647 114,642 1,224,127

35 Dinajpur 654,553 482,769 8,180 705 11,107 24,225 85,710 8,874 119,075 1,395,198

36 Gaibandha 544,732 396,123 5,775 442 9,081 23,025 65,665 5,979 74,562 1,125,384

37 Shirajganj 636,940 403,823 56,051 755 14,776 20,935 94,394 9,480 132,160 1,369,314

38 Nilphamari 375,865 291,754 3,595 434 5,623 11,853 45,012 5,541 53,464 793,141

39 Maulavibazar 353,832 186,622 21,115 896 12,398 12,751 53,958 8,815 131,672 782,059

40 Hobigonj 378,097 291,448 13,626 622 8,593 10,434 52,594 9,671 80,344 845,429

41 Sunamgonj 980,200 375,845 4,658 563 6,657 6,340 53,505 6,950 93,765 1,528,483

42 Rangpur 630,269 444,775 12,834 828 12,341 25,767 86,341 7,862 115,585 1,336,602

43 Panchagarh 201,261 162,403 1,316 84 2,649 7,171 19,222 1,380 36,289 431,775

44 Thakurgaon 300,643 246,232 1,988 261 4,585 9,078 30,005 2,557 38,615 633,964

45 Sylhet 575,378 283,449 9,720 2,363 26,945 23,902 100,608 13,999 155,904 1,192,268

Page 30: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-A1 46 Lalmonirhat 271,384 219,782 1,830 243 3,074 6,819 28,888 3,226 38,143 573,389

47 Narail 173,074 120,918 3,142 140 3,133 6,617 24,385 2,374 21,208 354,991

48 Kustia 443,599 259,859 20,875 725 11,393 18,678 82,197 6,213 90,580 934,119

49 Joypurhat 222,381 175,037 3,695 289 4,501 9,429 26,884 3,549 30,327 476,092

50 Jessore 611,363 412,270 22,272 970 14,740 29,618 99,168 9,637 118,904 1,318,942

51 Bogra 754,654 540,518 20,587 931 18,972 41,438 110,331 10,820 133,885 1,632,136

52 Magura 200,440 151,996 3,672 189 4,200 7,768 28,644 2,028 27,202 426,139

53 Meherpur 155,032 127,829 1,433 117 2,795 3,655 22,178 1,336 24,427 338,802

54 jhenaidah 398,142 311,242 6,887 358 7,392 16,908 62,094 4,059 53,736 860,818

55 Chuadanga 261,232 200,915 4,609 210 5,719 9,351 39,474 3,014 35,948 560,472

56 Lakhshmipur 345,453 186,062 3,609 616 9,954 14,559 50,257 7,866 61,773 680,149

57 Chandpur 527,816 275,606 6,289 1,167 15,187 16,165 81,655 12,319 102,488 1,038,692

58 Brahmanbaria 536,311 326,604 9,202 1,208 12,451 14,775 88,869 9,373 91,971 1,090,764

59 Dhaka 1,573,574 481,345 303,485 14,036 142,125 215,552 571,980 105,872 1,291,179 4,699,148

60 Comilla 1,034,626 604,275 16,414 2,370 25,751 44,605 56,245 23,006 200,697 2,007,989

61 Noakhali 597,041 281,154 8,116 1,160 14,080 23,559 84,647 11,080 104,326 1,125,163

62 Feni 297,879 121,122 6,655 950 10,648 15,242 46,849 8,077 572,335 1,079,757

63 Chittagong 1,484,793 458,510 123,637 6,423 58,513 99,689 313,467 50,892 689,343 3,285,267

64 Cox's Bazar 382,257 184,161 5,489 679 7,739 13,105 73,374 10,143 108,036 784,983

Activity Total 29,527,272 18,115,035 1,179,970 65,726 827,020 1,303,183 4,721,204 611,364 8,183,667 64,534,441

Page 31: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-A2

Bagerhat

Activity Sector(i) National (1991)

National (2001)

National Growth

National Sectoral Growth Factor

NGF Regional (1991)

Regional (2001)

Regional Growth

Regional Sectoral Growth Factor

National Share(N)

Proportionality Shift(P)

Differential Shift(D)

Regional Employment Change

Ei0 EiT EiT-Ei0 EiT/Ei0 ET/E0 EiS0 EiST EiST-EiS0 EiST/EiS0 EiS0(ET/E0)-EiS0

[(EiT/Ei0)-(ET/E0)]EiS0

[(EiST/EiS0)-(EiT/Ei0)]EiS0

Household work 26465049 29527272 3062223 1.12 386,441 405,292 18851 1.05 55618.73 -10904.34 -25863.39 18851

Agriculture 16159816 18115035 1955219 1.12 185,695 228,083 42388 1.23 26726.25 -4258.52 19920.27 42388

Industry 995080 1179970 184890 1.19 4,136 3,813 -323 0.92 595.28 173.21 -1091.49 -323

Water, Electricity, Gas

63906 65726 1820 1.03 1.14 295 505 210 1.71 42.46 -34.06 201.60 210

Construction 447178 827020 379842 1.85 5,010 8,086 3076 1.61 721.07 3534.53 -1179.59 3076

Transportation and Communication

679253 1303183 623930 1.92 9,418 15,405 5987 1.64 1355.49 7295.44 -2663.93 5987

Bussiness 4001241 4721204 719963 1.18 64,008 70,644 6636 1.10 9212.39 2304.89 -4881.27 6636

Service 660606 611364 -49242 0.93 8,767 7,911 -856 0.90 1261.80 -1915.29 -202.50 -856

Others 6942768 8183667 1240899 1.18 10,598 92,064 81466 8.69 1525.32 368.89 79571.79 81466

Total 56414897 64534441 8119544 1.14 674,368 831,803 157435 1.23 97058.77 -3435.25 63811.48 157435

Khulna

Activity Sector(i) National (1991)

National (2001)

National Growth

National Sectoral Growth Factor

NGF Regional (1991)

Regional (2001)

Regional Growth

Regional Sectoral Growth Factor

National Share(N)

Proportionality Shift(P)

Differential Shift(D)

Regional Employment Change

Ei0 EiT EiT-Ei0 EiT/Ei0 ET/E0 EiS0 EiST EiST-EiS0 EiST/EiS0 EiS0(ET/E0)-EiS0

[(EiT/Ei0)-(ET/E0)]EiS0

[(EiST/EiS0)-(EiT/Ei0)]EiS0

Household work 26465049 29527272 3062223 1.12 506,657 548,435 41778 1.08 72920.88 -14296.51 -16846.37 41778

Agriculture 16159816 18115035 1955219 1.12 190,924 255,507 64583 1.34 27478.84 -4378.44 41482.60 64583

Industry 995080 1179970 184890 1.19 34,420 42,800 8380 1.24 4953.92 1441.46 1984.62 8380

Water, Electricity, Gas

63906 65726 1820 1.03 1,893 2,151 258 1.14 272.45 -218.54 204.09 258

Construction 447178 827020 379842 1.85 1.14 10,643 17,437 6794 1.64 1531.80 7508.58 -2246.38 6794

Transportation and Communication

679253 1303183 623930 1.92 21,533 34,338 12805 1.59 3099.15 16680.06 -6974.21 12805

Bussiness 4001241 4721204 719963 1.18 104,102 121,274 17172 1.16 14982.94 3748.65 -1559.59 17172

Service 660606 611364 -49242 0.93 10,297 13,607 3310 1.32 1482.00 -2249.55 4077.55 3310

Others 6942768 8183667 1240899 1.18 220,107 183,166 -36941 0.83 31679.02 7661.28 -76281.30 -36941

Total 56414897 64534441 8119544 1.14 1,100,576 1,218,715 118139 1.11 158400.99 15896.99 -56158.98 118139

Faridpur

Activity Sector(i) National(1991) National(2001) National Growth

National Sectoral Growth Factor

NGF Regional(1991) Regional(2001) Regional Growth

Regional Sectoral Growth Factor

National Share(N)

Proportionality Shift(P)

Differential Shift(D)

Regional Employment Change

Ei0 EiT EiT-Ei0 EiT/Ei0 ET/E0 EiS0 EiST EiST-EiS0 EiST/EiS0 EiS0(ET/E0)-EiS0

[(EiT/Ei0)-(ET/E0)]EiS0

[(EiST/EiS0)-(EiT/Ei0)]EiS0

Household work 26465049 29527272 3062223 1.12 390,893 424,471 33578 1.09 56259.48 -11029.96 -11651.52 33578

Agriculture 16159816 18115035 1955219 1.12 256,842 280,585 23743 1.09 36966.12 -5890.13 -7332.99 23743

Industry 995080 1179970 184890 1.19 5,748 7,081 1333 1.23 827.28 240.72 265.00 1333

Water, Electricity, Gas

63906 65726 1820 1.03 1.14 433 641 208 1.48 62.32 -49.99 195.67 208

Page 32: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-A2 Construction 447178 827020 379842 1.85 5,643 13,488 7845 2.39 812.17 3981.11 3051.72 7845

Transportation and Communication

679253 1303183 623930 1.92 9,023 20,237 11214 2.24 1298.64 6989.47 2925.89 11214

Bussiness 4001241 4721204 719963 1.18 51,925 64,182 12257 1.24 7473.33 1869.79 2913.88 12257

Service 660606 611364 -49242 0.93 5,868 6,023 155 1.03 844.56 -1281.96 592.40 155

Others 6942768 8183667 1240899 1.18 78,835 74,219 -4616 0.94 11346.37 2744.02 -18706.38 -4616

Total 56414897 64534441 8119544 1.14 805,210 890,927 85717 1.11 115890.28 -2426.94 -27746.34 85717

Kishoreganj

Activity Sector(i) National(1991) National(2001) National Growth

National Sectoral Growth Factor

NGF Regional(1991) Regional(2001) Regional Growth

Regional Sectoral Growth Factor

National Share(N)

Proportionality Shift(P)

Differential Shift(D)

Regional Employment Change

Ei0 EiT EiT-Ei0 EiT/Ei0 ET/E0 EiS0 EiST EiST-EiS0 EiST/EiS0 EiS0(ET/E0)-EiS0

[(EiT/Ei0)-(ET/E0)]EiS0

[(EiST/EiS0)-(EiT/Ei0)]EiS0

Household work 26465049 29527272 3062223 1.12 566,613 613,553 46940 1.08 81550.08 -15988.31 -18621.77 46940

Agriculture 16159816 18115035 1955219 1.12 424,505 442,638 18133 1.04 61097.11 -9735.12 -33228.99 18133

Industry 995080 1179970 184890 1.19 10,068 8,607 -1461 0.85 1449.04 421.63 -3331.68 -1461

Water, Electricity, Gas

63906 65726 1820 1.03 550 677 127 1.23 79.16 -63.50 111.34 127

Construction 447178 827020 379842 1.85 1.14 5,639 12,799 7160 2.27 811.60 3978.28 2370.12 7160

Transportation and Communication

679253 1303183 623930 1.92 10,437 21,730 11293 2.08 1502.15 8084.79 1706.06 11293

Bussiness 4001241 4721204 719963 1.18 75,820 102,262 26442 1.35 10912.43 2730.23 12799.33 26442

Service 660606 611364 -49242 0.93 10,160 10,410 250 1.02 1462.28 -2219.62 1007.33 250

Others 6942768 8183667 1240899 1.18 96,627 106,899 10272 1.11 13907.09 3363.30 -6998.40 10272

Total 56414897 64534441 8119544 1.14 1,200,419 1,319,575 119156 1.10 172770.94 -9428.30 -44186.64 119156

Narsingdi

Activity Sector(i) National(1991) National(2001) National Growth

National Sectoral Growth Factor

NGF Regional(1991) Regional(2001) Regional Growth

Regional Sectoral Growth Factor

National Share(N)

Proportionality Shift(P)

Differential Shift(D)

Regional Employment Change

Ei0 EiT EiT-Ei0 EiT/Ei0 ET/E0 EiS0 EiST EiST-EiS0 EiST/EiS0 EiS0(ET/E0)-EiS0

[(EiT/Ei0)-(ET/E0)]EiS0

[(EiST/EiS0)-(EiT/Ei0)]EiS0

Household work 26465049 29527272 3062223 1.12 407,428 430,635 23207 1.06 58639.29 -11496.53 -23935.76 23207

Agriculture 16159816 18115035 1955219 1.12 233,533 238,139 4606 1.02 33611.36 -5355.58 -23649.78 4606

Industry 995080 1179970 184890 1.19 46,766 46,967 201 1.00 6730.82 1958.50 -8488.32 201

Water, Electricity, Gas

63906 65726 1820 1.03 1.14 941 1,297 356 1.38 135.43 -108.63 329.20 356

Construction 447178 827020 379842 1.85 4,913 10,907 5994 2.22 707.11 3466.10 1820.80 5994

Transportation and Communication

679253 1303183 623930 1.92 9,270 18,677 9407 2.01 1334.19 7180.80 892.01 9407

Bussiness 4001241 4721204 719963 1.18 70,528 83,798 13270 1.19 10150.78 2539.67 579.55 13270

Service 660606 611364 -49242 0.93 7,071 9,867 2796 1.40 1017.70 -1544.77 3323.08 2796

Others 6942768 8183667 1240899 1.18 88,806 94,953 6147 1.07 12781.45 3091.08 -9725.53 6147

Total 56414897 64534441 8119544 1.14 869,256 935,240 65984 1.08 125108.13 -269.39 -58854.74 65984

Rajbari

Page 33: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-A2 Activity Sector(i) National(1991) National(2001) National

Growth National Sectoral Growth Factor

NGF Regional(1991) Regional(2001) Regional Growth

Regional Sectoral Growth Factor

National Share(N)

Proportionality Shift(P)

Differential Shift(D)

Regional Employment Change

Ei0 EiT EiT-Ei0 EiT/Ei0 ET/E0 EiS0 EiST EiST-EiS0 EiST/EiS0 EiS0(ET/E0)-EiS0

[(EiT/Ei0)-(ET/E0)]EiS0

[(EiST/EiS0)-(EiT/Ei0)]EiS0

Household work 26465049 29527272 3062223 1.12 209,667 229,300 19633 1.09 30176.43 -5916.24 -4627.19 19633

Agriculture 16159816 18115035 1955219 1.12 152,979 163,339 10360 1.07 22017.58 -3508.25 -8149.33 10360

Industry 995080 1179970 184890 1.19 4,106 4,583 477 1.12 590.96 171.95 -285.91 477

Water, Electricity, Gas

63906 65726 1820 1.03 221 352 131 1.59 31.81 -25.51 124.71 131

Construction 447178 827020 379842 1.85 1.14 2,792 7,941 5149 2.84 401.84 1969.74 2777.42 5149

Transportation and Communication

679253 1303183 623930 1.92 4,529 11,090 6561 2.45 651.84 3508.29 2400.87 6561

Bussiness 4001241 4721204 719963 1.18 29,411 36,326 6915 1.24 4232.99 1059.07 1622.93 6915

Service 660606 611364 -49242 0.93 3,999 3,174 -825 0.79 575.56 -873.65 -526.91 -825

Others 6942768 8183667 1240899 1.18 34,186 34,218 32 1.00 4920.24 1189.91 -6078.15 32

Total 56414897 64534441 8119544 1.14 441,890 490,323 48433 1.11 63599.25 -2424.68 -12741.57 48433

Shatkhira

Activity Sector(i) National(1991) National(2001) National Growth

National Sectoral Growth Factor

NGF Regional(1991) Regional(2001) Regional Growth

Regional Sectoral Growth Factor

National Share(N)

Proportionality Shift(P)

Differential Shift(D)

Regional Employment Change

Ei0 EiT EiT-Ei0 EiT/Ei0 ET/E0 EiS0 EiST EiST-EiS0 EiST/EiS0 EiS0(ET/E0)-EiS0

[(EiT/Ei0)-(ET/E0)]EiS0

[(EiST/EiS0)-(EiT/Ei0)]EiS0

Household work 26465049 29527272 3062223 1.12 421,945 463,927 41982 1.10 60728.66 -11906.16 -6840.49 41982

Agriculture 16159816 18115035 1955219 1.12 271,596 308,553 36957 1.14 39089.60 -6228.48 4095.88 36957

Industry 995080 1179970 184890 1.19 9,809 8,900 -909 0.91 1411.77 410.79 -2731.55 -909

Water, Electricity, Gas

63906 65726 1820 1.03 232 429 197 1.85 33.39 -26.78 190.39 197

Construction 447178 827020 379842 1.85 1.14 6,696 7,511 815 1.12 963.73 4723.99 -4872.72 815

Transportation and Communication

679253 1303183 623930 1.92 8,341 15,964 7623 1.91 1200.48 6461.17 -38.65 7623

Bussiness 4001241 4721204 719963 1.18 67,282 82,551 15269 1.23 9683.60 2422.78 3162.62 15269

Service 660606 611364 -49242 0.93 4,979 8,513 3534 1.71 716.61 -1087.74 3905.14 3534

Others 6942768 8183667 1240899 1.18 70,063 76,018 5955 1.08 10083.85 2438.69 -6567.54 5955

Total 56414897 64534441 8119544 1.14 860,943 972,366 111423 1.13 123911.68 -2791.75 -9696.93 111423

Netrokona

Activity Sector(i) National(1991) National(2001) National Growth

National Sectoral Growth Factor

NGF Regional(1991) Regional(2001) Regional Growth

Regional Sectoral Growth Factor

National Share(N)

Proportionality Shift(P)

Differential Shift(D)

Regional Employment Change

Ei0 EiT EiT-Ei0 EiT/Ei0 ET/E0 EiS0 EiST EiST-EiS0 EiST/EiS0 EiS0(ET/E0)-EiS0

[(EiT/Ei0)-(ET/E0)]EiS0

[(EiST/EiS0)-(EiT/Ei0)]EiS0

Household work 26465049 29527272 3062223 1.12 448,199 482,603 34404 1.08 64507.28 -12646.98 -17456.30 34404

Agriculture 16159816 18115035 1955219 1.12 375,830 404,116 28286 1.08 54091.53 -8618.86 -17186.67 28286

Industry 995080 1179970 184890 1.19 3,718 3,562 -156 0.96 535.12 155.70 -846.82 -156

Water, Electricity, Gas

63906 65726 1820 1.03 331 357 26 1.08 47.64 -38.21 16.57 26

Construction 447178 827020 379842 1.85 1.14 3,482 7,720 4238 2.22 501.15 2456.53 1280.32 4238

Transportation and Communication

679253 1303183 623930 1.92 3,088 11,221 8133 3.63 444.44 2392.05 5296.51 8133

Page 34: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-A2 Bussiness 4001241 4721204 719963 1.18 45,605 57,008 11403 1.25 6563.72 1642.21 3197.07 11403

Service 660606 611364 -49242 0.93 5,822 6,069 247 1.04 837.93 -1271.91 680.98 247

Others 6942768 8183667 1240899 1.18 72,921 68,469 -4452 0.94 10495.19 2538.17 -17485.36 -4452

Total 56414897 64534441 8119544 1.14 958,996 1,041,125 82129 1.09 138024.01 -13391.31 -42503.70 82129

Shariatpur

Activity Sector(i) National(1991) National(2001) National Growth

National Sectoral Growth Factor

NGF Regional(1991) Regional(2001) Regional Growth

Regional Sectoral Growth Factor

National Share(N)

Proportionality Shift(P)

Differential Shift(D)

Regional Employment Change

Ei0 EiT EiT-Ei0 EiT/Ei0 ET/E0 EiS0 EiST EiST-EiS0 EiST/EiS0 EiS0(ET/E0)-EiS0

[(EiT/Ei0)-(ET/E0)]EiS0

[(EiST/EiS0)-(EiT/Ei0)]EiS0

Household work 26465049 29527272 3062223 1.12 237,723 244,676 6953 1.03 34214.41 -6707.91 -20553.50 6953

Agriculture 16159816 18115035 1955219 1.12 162,483 175,299 12816 1.08 23385.45 -3726.20 -6843.25 12816

Industry 995080 1179970 184890 1.19 2,742 3,414 672 1.25 394.64 114.83 162.53 672

Water, Electricity, Gas

63906 65726 1820 1.03 194 287 93 1.48 27.92 -22.40 87.48 93

Construction 447178 827020 379842 1.85 2,630 4,718 2088 1.79 378.52 1855.45 -145.97 2088

Transportation and Communication

679253 1303183 623930 1.92 1.14 3,117 6,177 3060 1.98 448.62 2414.51 196.87 3060

Bussiness 4001241 4721204 719963 1.18 27,306 34,904 7598 1.28 3930.03 983.27 2684.70 7598

Service 660606 611364 -49242 0.93 2,615 2,785 170 1.07 376.37 -571.29 364.92 170

Others 6942768 8183667 1240899 1.18 36,907 35,428 -1479 0.96 5311.86 1284.62 -8075.48 -1479

Total 56414897 64534441 8119544 1.14 475,717 507,688 31971 1.07 68467.82 -4375.11 -32121.72 31971

Page 35: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-B

Figure-1: Inter District Comparison of Employment Growth and Shift Share Components

Figure-2: Inter District Comparison in Terms of Percentage Composition of Regional Employment Growth Components (X-axis: Percentage; Y-axis: Districts)

23.35

10.73 10.65 9.93 7.59

10.96 12.94

8.56 6.72

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Bagerhat Khulna Faridpur Kishoreganj Narsingdi Rajbari Shatkhira Netrokona Shariatpur

Per

cen

tage

Ch

ange

Districts

Inter District Comparison: Shift Share Components

Proportionality Shift(P) Differential Shift(D) Regional Growth(G) National Growth(N)

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Bagerhat

Khulna

Faridpur

Kishoreganj

Narsingdi

Rajbari

Shatkhira

Netrokona

Shariatpur

National Share(N)

Proportionality Shift(P)

Differential Shift(D)

Page 36: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-B1 Districts Regional Employment(1991)

Bagerhat 674,368

Khulna 1,100,576

Faridpur 805,210

Kishoreganj 1,200,419

Narsingdi 869,256

Rajbari 441,890

Shatkhira 860,943

Netrokona 958,996

Shariatpur 475,717

District wise shift share components in 2001

Districts National Share(N) Proportionality Shift(P) Differential Shift(D) Regional Growth(G)

Net Shift

Bagerhat 97058.77 -3435.25 63811.48 157435.00 60376.23

Khulna 158400.99 15896.99 -56158.98 118139.00 -40261.99

Faridpur 115890.28 -2426.94 -27746.34 85717.00 -30173.28

Kishoreganj 172770.94 -9428.30 -44186.64 119156.00 -53614.94

Narsingdi 125108.13 -269.39 -58854.74 65984.00 -59124.13

Rajbari 63599.25 -2424.68 -12741.57 48433.00 -15166.25

Shatkhira 123911.68 -2791.75 -9696.93 111423.00 -12488.68

Netrokona 138024.01 -13391.31 -42503.70 82129.00 -55895.01

Shariatpur 68467.82 -4375.11 -32121.72 31971.00 -36496.82

Percentage change of the shift share components with respect to the total employment in 1991

Districts National Growth(N) Proportionality Shift(P) Differential Shift(D) Regional Growth(G)

Bagerhat 14.39 -0.51 9.46 23.35

Khulna 14.39 1.44 -5.10 10.73

Faridpur 14.39 -0.30 -3.45 10.65

Kishoreganj 14.39 -0.79 -3.68 9.93

Narsingdi 14.39 -0.03 -6.77 7.59

Rajbari 14.39 -0.55 -2.88 10.96

Shatkhira 14.39 -0.32 -1.13 12.94

Netrokona 14.39 -1.40 -4.43 8.56

Shariatpur 14.39 -0.92 -6.75 6.72

Districts National Growth(N) Regional Growth(G) Regional Growth Percentage with Respect to National Growth

Bagerhat 14.39 23.35 162.21

Khulna 14.39 10.73 74.58

Faridpur 14.39 10.65 73.96

Kishoreganj 14.39 9.93 68.97

Narsingdi 14.39 7.59 52.74

Rajbari 14.39 10.96 76.15

Shatkhira 14.39 12.94 89.92

Netrokona 14.39 8.56 59.50

Shariatpur 14.39 6.72 46.69

Page 37: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-B1

Page 38: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-B2

Figure-3: Regional Growth Scenario with Respect to the National Growth

Page 39: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-B3

Figure-4: Employment change of the main activity sectors in the selected districts over the time period 1991-2001. (X-axis: Activity Sector of Different Districts; Y-axis: Percentage Change)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Household work Agriculture Industry Water, Electricity,

Gas

Construction Trans. & Comm. Bussiness Service Others

Employment Change of Activity Sectors :1991-2001

Bagerhat Khulna Faridpur Kishoreganj Narsingdi Rajbari Shatkhira Netrokona Shariatpur

Page 40: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-B4

Employment in 1991

Household work

Agriculture Industry Water, Electricity, Gas Construction Transportation and Communication

Bussiness Service Others

Bagerhat 386,441 185,695 4,136 295 5,010 9,418 64,008 8,767 10,598

Khulna 506,657 190,924 34,420 1,893 10,643 21,533 104,102 10,297 220,107

Faridpur 390,893 256,842 5,748 433 5,643 9,023 51,925 5,868 78,835

Kishoreganj 566,613 424,505 10,068 550 5,639 10,437 75,820 10,160 96,627

Narsingdi 407,428 233,533 46,766 941 4,913 9,270 70,528 7,071 88,806

Rajbari 209,667 152,979 4,106 221 2,792 4,529 29,411 3,999 34,186

Shatkhira 421,945 271,596 9,809 232 6,696 8,341 67,282 4,979 70,063

Netrokona 448,199 375,830 3,718 331 3,482 3,088 45,605 5,822 72,921

Shariatpur 237,723 162,483 2,742 194 2,630 3,117 27,306 2,615 36,907

Employment Change 1991-2001

Household work

Agriculture Industry Water, Electricity, Gas

Construction Transportation and Communication

Bussiness Service Others

Bagerhat 18851 42388 -323 210 3076 5987 6636 -856 81466

Khulna 41778 64583 8380 258 6794 12805 17172 3310 -36941

Faridpur 33578 23743 1333 208 7845 11214 12257 155 -4616

Kishoreganj 46940 18133 -1461 127 7160 11293 26442 250 10272

Narsingdi 23207 4606 201 356 5994 9407 13270 2796 6147

Rajbari 19633 10360 477 131 5149 6561 6915 -825 32

Shatkhira 41982 36957 -909 197 815 7623 15269 3534 5955

Netrokona 34404 28286 -156 26 4238 8133 11403 247 -4452

Shariatpur 6953 12816 672 93 2088 3060 7598 170 -1479

Page 41: Shift Share Analysis Based on Main Activity Sector of Selected Districts of Bangladesh

Appendix-B4 Employment Change Percentage

Household work

Agriculture Industry Water, Electricity, Gas

Construction Trans. & Comm. Bussiness Service Others

Bagerhat 4.88 22.83 -7.81 71.19 61.40 63.57 10.37 -9.76 768.69

Khulna 8.25 33.83 24.35 13.63 63.84 59.47 16.50 32.15 -16.78

Faridpur 8.59 9.24 23.19 48.04 139.02 124.28 23.61 2.64 -5.86

Kishoreganj 8.28 4.27 -14.51 23.09 126.97 108.20 34.87 2.46 10.63

Narsingdi 5.70 1.97 0.43 37.83 122.00 101.48 18.82 39.54 6.92

Rajbari 9.36 6.77 11.62 59.28 184.42 144.87 23.51 -20.63 0.09

Shatkhira 9.95 13.61 -9.27 84.91 12.17 91.39 22.69 70.98 8.50

Netrokona 7.68 7.53 -4.20 7.85 121.71 263.37 25.00 4.24 -6.11

Shariatpur 2.92 7.89 24.51 47.94 79.39 98.17 27.83 6.50 -4.01